tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77836628002284663592024-03-08T03:33:03.036-08:00Gordon Groat@GordonGroat // Tweeting and Blogging from the Arizona CoastGordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-57552065610883741252023-07-11T13:48:00.000-07:002024-02-28T18:40:51.341-08:00K-12 Safety<p> </p><h1>K-12 Safety<o:p></o:p></h1>
<h2>Introduction<o:p></o:p></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">In recent years, ensuring safety in K-12 schools has become
a top priority for educators, parents, and policymakers. The need for a secure
and nurturing environment in schools is paramount to promote effective learning
and development among students. This article aims to explore various aspects of
safety in K-12 schools in 2022, including best practices, strategies, and
challenges. By implementing effective safety measures, schools can provide a
conducive environment for students to thrive academically, emotionally, and
socially.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>The Importance of Safety in K-12 Schools<o:p></o:p></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ensuring safety in K-12 schools is of utmost importance as
it directly impacts the well-being and overall development of students. When
students feel safe and secure, they can focus on learning and growth without
distractions. Safety measures also provide reassurance to parents, fostering a
sense of trust in the educational institution. By prioritizing safety, schools
create an environment where students can flourish both academically and personally.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Best Practices for Safety in K-12 Schools<o:p></o:p></h2>
<h3>1. Developing a Comprehensive Safety Plan<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">A well-defined safety plan is the foundation of an effective
safety program in K-12 schools. This plan should include protocols for
emergencies such as fires, natural disasters, or intruders. Regular drills and
training sessions should be conducted to ensure that students and staff are
well-prepared to respond appropriately in such situations.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>2. Implementing Access Control Measures<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Controlling access to school premises is crucial for
maintaining a secure environment. Schools should invest in access control
systems such as ID cards, key fobs, or biometric systems to regulate entry and
exit. Additionally, visitor management protocols should be in place to monitor individuals
entering the premises.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>3. Enhancing Physical Security<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">To prevent unauthorized access and ensure the safety of
students and staff, schools should have robust physical security measures. This
includes installing surveillance cameras, securing entrances and exits, and
implementing fencing and gating systems. Adequate lighting should be provided
in parking lots and other outdoor areas to discourage potential threats.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>4. Strengthening Cybersecurity<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">With the increasing reliance on technology in schools, it is
essential to address cybersecurity concerns. Schools should have measures in
place to protect sensitive student information and prevent unauthorized access
to digital systems. Educating students and staff about online safety and
responsible internet use is also crucial.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>5. Promoting Mental Health and Well-being<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Safety in K-12 schools goes beyond physical security; it
also encompasses the mental health and well-being of students. Schools should
prioritize creating a supportive environment that fosters emotional and
psychological well-being. Implementing counseling services, promoting
anti-bullying initiatives, and offering resources for students' mental health
are essential components of a comprehensive safety plan. This is supported by
research that shows selected strategies and the effectiveness of each.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuZ3gH-DbUGYpYu0Pw_a7yQHUWjix2kImCw8FdHbDqLoQQhnWhwIoB4Pf-Rn7YhSQGkJ9Ajctw61cX3yYwZ2PVj_cVy9ZKuR0HsPh5uXn8fn3g9Dyc7cLjdawori5HZZ__Hzg25yAPJlc_3-FYo1HqQx7IHytQzEwQFhA8NfuAaFkosG7fix28PDybaOw/s681/Capture.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="681" height="415" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuZ3gH-DbUGYpYu0Pw_a7yQHUWjix2kImCw8FdHbDqLoQQhnWhwIoB4Pf-Rn7YhSQGkJ9Ajctw61cX3yYwZ2PVj_cVy9ZKuR0HsPh5uXn8fn3g9Dyc7cLjdawori5HZZ__Hzg25yAPJlc_3-FYo1HqQx7IHytQzEwQFhA8NfuAaFkosG7fix28PDybaOw/w640-h415/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br />Challenges in Ensuring Safety in K-12 Schools<o:p></o:p></h2>
<h3>1. Limited Resources<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of the significant challenges in ensuring safety in K-12
schools is the availability of limited resources. Many schools struggle with
budget constraints, making it difficult to invest in advanced security systems
or hire additional personnel. Finding creative solutions and seeking
partnerships with local communities and organizations can help alleviate this
challenge.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>2. Keeping Up with Evolving Threats<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Schools face the constant challenge of keeping up with
evolving threats and adapting safety measures accordingly. As technology
advances, so do the methods used by potential intruders or cyber attackers.
Schools must stay informed about the latest safety trends and continuously
update their protocols and systems to address emerging risks.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>3. Balancing Security with a Positive Learning Environment<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">While ensuring safety is crucial, it is essential to strike
a balance between security measures and maintaining a positive learning
environment. Excessive security measures or an atmosphere of constant vigilance
can hinder students' ability to feel comfortable and free to express
themselves. Schools must adopt strategies that provide security without
compromising the overall educational experience.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>FAQs about Safety in K-12 Schools 2022<o:p></o:p></h2>
<h3>Q: What role do teachers play in ensuring safety in K-12 schools?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Teachers play a crucial role in ensuring safety in K-12
schools. They are responsible for implementing safety protocols, conducting
drills, and being vigilant during school hours. Teachers also play a vital role
in promoting a positive and inclusive classroom environment, addressing student
concerns, and identifying signs of potential threats or bullying.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>Q: How can parents contribute to the safety of K-12 schools?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Parents can contribute to the safety of K-12 schools by
actively engaging in their child's education and school community. They can
participate in parent-teacher associations, attend safety-related workshops or
meetings, and communicate any concerns or suggestions regarding safety measures
to school authorities. It is also essential for parents to educate their
children about personal safety and encourage open communication about their
experiences at school.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>Q: Are there any specific safety measures for K-12 schools during the
COVID-19 pandemic?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Yes, the COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated additional
safety measures in K-12 schools. These may include social distancing protocols,
regular sanitization of classrooms and common areas, mandatory mask-wearing,
and increased ventilation. Schools may also implement hybrid learning models or
remote learning options to minimize the risk of virus transmission.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>Q: How can schools address the issue of bullying and ensure a safe
environment for all students?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Schools can address the issue of bullying by implementing
comprehensive anti-bullying policies and promoting a culture of respect and
empathy. This includes educating students about the consequences of bullying,
providing counseling and support for victims, and implementing disciplinary
measures for the perpetrators. Creating a safe reporting system and encouraging
students to speak up about instances of bullying is also essential.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>Q: What should schools do to prepare for natural disasters or emergencies?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">Schools should have well-established emergency response
plans in place to prepare for natural disasters or emergencies. This includes
conducting regular drills to familiarize students and staff with evacuation
procedures, establishing communication protocols with local authorities, and
maintaining emergency supply kits. Collaborating with local emergency
management agencies can provide valuable guidance and resources.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h3>Q: How can schools address the issue of online safety and cybersecurity?<o:p></o:p></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal">To address the issue of online safety and cybersecurity,
schools should educate students about responsible internet use and digital
citizenship. Implementing filters and monitoring systems on school computers
and networks can help prevent access to inappropriate content. Schools should
also emphasize the importance of strong passwords, secure online behavior, and
the potential risks associated with sharing personal information online.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Conclusion<o:p></o:p></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ensuring safety in K-12 schools is a multifaceted endeavor
that requires the collaboration of educators, parents, and the wider community.
By implementing best practices, addressing challenges, and prioritizing the
well-being of students, schools can create a safe and supportive environment
for learning and growth. With continuous evaluation and adaptation to emerging
safety concerns, K-12 schools can meet the evolving needs of their students,
providing them with a secure foundation for their educational journey.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">============================================<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Safe Schools: A Best Practices Guide." National
Center for Education Statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"School Safety and Security Guidelines." U.S.
Department of Education<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Cybersecurity in K-12 Education: Current Challenges<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">c<o:p></o:p></p>Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-35736659098635898682023-07-03T16:05:00.022-07:002023-07-03T18:00:36.529-07:00Forgotten Presidents<p><br />Peyton Randolph ought to be remembered. He was the very first President of the very first Continental Congress. He also signed the Continental Association, a trade boycott in response to the Intolerable Acts that were instituted to punish the colonists after the Boston Tea Party. Peyton was seen by the British as ringmaster amongst instigators… </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwsYO-OTn6MbtpraDn6JO30frNo2iWHXpSpsXfd9wj7lipxlzd9ZROb4_6J05gNqFh1SRs6kehYAKVTHWvMHontKkI447w47DBbP-6Rlst93lsj3XKOi26fZm33HtYcV0jU_8v-Ayv40V9J5gCORbZcrj2oxG1r_wtLfwgq1j6xuXMVe6-IEetMFgIn6w/s500/PeytonRandolph.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="411" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwsYO-OTn6MbtpraDn6JO30frNo2iWHXpSpsXfd9wj7lipxlzd9ZROb4_6J05gNqFh1SRs6kehYAKVTHWvMHontKkI447w47DBbP-6Rlst93lsj3XKOi26fZm33HtYcV0jU_8v-Ayv40V9J5gCORbZcrj2oxG1r_wtLfwgq1j6xuXMVe6-IEetMFgIn6w/s320/PeytonRandolph.jpeg" width="263" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peyton Randolph</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>He was accorded the reception of any troublesome colonist amongst the court of St. James… which is to say, none whatsoever. To make matters worse, Peyton Randolph was also seen as the titular head of the troublesome colonists, and in May of 1775, when the 2nd Continental Congress began, it was once again, Peyton Randolph who was elected President. During his time as President, Peyton Randolph fell ill and stepped down to recover. It was John Hancock who replaced him as President when Congress put quill to paper and signed the Declaration of Independence. </p><p>Each person who signed understood, in no uncertain terms, they were essentially signing their own death warrant. Of course, this could apply to their families also. Given the dim prospect of defeating the World’s greatest military force with a group of different militias, and with limited capacity to produce war materials and vulnerable to naval blockade… they signed. Such was their passion for the idea of a truly representative government.</p><p>The declaration was also designed to demonstrate, in the most practicable way, the very depth of American dedication and commitment to the cause. Such commitment greatly amplified support in the Court of Versailles and was well received by King Louis XVI.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1L_IorYtpHs5JB5dW6zqnIzCkgfHNV-QD0t3eZYZFSf7yJLYT3Wlxtl9l1ryaM0xUd-PE-ixvXIcZ9GJVU40sKFHoYItyRxfR_25UVuMG76VwlmNgSpJtef63rclPQ27JlBf6MZyOxv-cFUkZxqXA8d8zkj0iuT5w5NKvdzuCXocngFgnedMGeWLcnj0/s1691/Antoine-Fran%C3%A7ois_Callet_-_Louis_XVI,_roi_de_France_et_de_Navarre_(1754-1793),_rev%C3%AAtu_du_grand_costume_royal_en_1779_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1691" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1L_IorYtpHs5JB5dW6zqnIzCkgfHNV-QD0t3eZYZFSf7yJLYT3Wlxtl9l1ryaM0xUd-PE-ixvXIcZ9GJVU40sKFHoYItyRxfR_25UVuMG76VwlmNgSpJtef63rclPQ27JlBf6MZyOxv-cFUkZxqXA8d8zkj0iuT5w5NKvdzuCXocngFgnedMGeWLcnj0/w227-h320/Antoine-Fran%C3%A7ois_Callet_-_Louis_XVI,_roi_de_France_et_de_Navarre_(1754-1793),_rev%C3%AAtu_du_grand_costume_royal_en_1779_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg" width="227" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">King Louis XVI</td></tr></tbody></table> The French allied formally with the American cause on February 06, 1778, with the signing of the Treaty of Amity and Commerce and the Treaty of Alliance thanks, in large part, to Dr. Benjamin Franklin, our first diplomat. For Washington whose troops were suffering at Valley Forge at that time (February), this was cause for great optimism.<p></p><p>Smuggling routes that ran from Europe to the West Indies, and then into the southern ports where the Spanish looked the other way had kept the American Revolution afloat. When the Treaty of Aranjuez was signed on 12 April 1779, it called for French support to assist Spain in recovering its former possessions of Menorca, Gibraltar, and Spanish Florida (East and West Florida). In exchange, Spain would support the revolution.</p><p>In October 1781, the French naval blockade was instrumental in forcing a British army under Cornwallis to surrender at the Siege of Yorktown. When news of this reached London in March 1782, the government of Lord North fell and Great Britain immediately sued for peace terms. France delayed the end of the war until September 1783 in the hope of overrunning more British colonies in India and the West Indies. </p><p>Nevertheless, when the Marquess of Rockingham was appointed Prime Minister, he immediately pushed for an acknowledgment of the independence of the United States, initiating an end to British involvement. </p><p>What price was paid by the signors of the Declaration of Independence?</p><p>1)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. </p><p>2)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. </p><p>3)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Two lost their sons in the revolutionary army.</p><p>4)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Another had two sons captured. </p><p>5)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nine of the 56 fought and died from wounds or hardships of the revolutionary war.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_zvMvHN-0JIu_7feJ7g3U4B-TCUQ55kW7YCjNR-roShDBN2QrrESPKF7EBibDwdjyBieO2DeEuVRfPWOq_JcywvqjIdNix2j9BB8Rc1rWGC_1aI5q4Dn47nScg4o6UroGgalEx-lStef2oNTLzyFM80XlICvYoglesk-Hp2vlvKpRMb4jsXtaII4auCk/s771/640px-Samuel_Huntington_-_Charles_Willson_Peale.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_zvMvHN-0JIu_7feJ7g3U4B-TCUQ55kW7YCjNR-roShDBN2QrrESPKF7EBibDwdjyBieO2DeEuVRfPWOq_JcywvqjIdNix2j9BB8Rc1rWGC_1aI5q4Dn47nScg4o6UroGgalEx-lStef2oNTLzyFM80XlICvYoglesk-Hp2vlvKpRMb4jsXtaII4auCk/s320/640px-Samuel_Huntington_-_Charles_Willson_Peale.jpg" width="266" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Samuel Huntington</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>When John Jay left the Second Continental Congress to become Minister to Spain, my 3rd Cousin 7x, Samuel Huntington, was elected to succeed him as President of the Continental Congress. He signed the Declaration of Independence and the Articles of Confederation. His autograph was small but neat and precise. You can find his signature on the right side underneath Roger Sherman. On the same line higher up were John Adams and Samuel Adams.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Huntington was President of the Continental Congress when the last state ratified the Articles of Confederation (Maryland) on March 01, 1781. Thus, our first form of government was born. Upon ratification by Maryland, the transition was uninterrupted, and Huntington immediately became the first President under the Articles of Confederation. He resigned shortly thereafter having assured the new country was properly born of the Articles of Confederation. He returned to Connecticut to convalesce. Between 1784 and 1796, he served as Lieutenant Governor, Chief Justice of the Connecticut Supreme Court, and, eventually, the state's Governor. During his time, he oversaw the transition of Connecticut into statehood, the adoption of the Federal Constitution, and the beginnings of the building of a State House in the newly made capitol, Hartford. </p><p></p><div>Ebenezer Huntington was my 8th great-grandfather and he had the privilege to serve with General Washington. He was present at the siege of Yorktown and is depicted mounted on the horse closest and to the right on the American side in John Trumbull’s famous painting that hangs in the U.S. Capital Rotunda.</div><div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEDkiT-4v6HPhV_OG75_q_sbGL7FaDDAbjkk0j_3aY9s1Sio2RjW649uxCiHouAqAyS9iYla6WD2pVr8HdjP4xQioD6QKD0Ox66r4b8se1y1ZkcJP7dxc-gDJCablVA9VZ0NBlW8ZF3M1iU6SX3KbAEMzrN3OTgD1dpbR7shBywxVu5F5oRGCyEzgg33Y/s610/Declaration_of_Independence_%281819%29,_by_John_Trumbull.jpg" style="clear: right; display: block; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></a></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8pVbCqT_hjJtI8Lak9hvVNeAafnIUkhmmZ0s0Uq1OXW9YaqxEaqT1cSgc90LSlzUD1cm-Q9hC-mvQaRLV5xRIjPeiOA4j07kZxySpvpCL9vFF6cfeWadLqD7HymeB524R7p7vzquwGnPHc3sXbqaLLwXKZqeYN8kJumrlRj1XMj5creletQQ0_EqyWp8/s849/Yorktown.PNG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="849" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8pVbCqT_hjJtI8Lak9hvVNeAafnIUkhmmZ0s0Uq1OXW9YaqxEaqT1cSgc90LSlzUD1cm-Q9hC-mvQaRLV5xRIjPeiOA4j07kZxySpvpCL9vFF6cfeWadLqD7HymeB524R7p7vzquwGnPHc3sXbqaLLwXKZqeYN8kJumrlRj1XMj5creletQQ0_EqyWp8/w400-h274/Yorktown.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surrender of Cornwallis at Yorktown</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Ebenezer initially joined the 2nd Connecticut Regiment and rose to Lt. Col. in the Continental Army serving with General Washington. He later became a Brigadier General in the US Army. On the Groat side, my 5th Great Uncle, Peter Groat, served with the New York 8th Albany Regiment, and his brother John served with the 3rd Albany Regiment. Six other family members are also on the rolls of the Albany Regiments.</div><div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR6UeM75BbVlwGQBc7UNZ3jBNPio2p4zPCcaR6Hp3WcvYrL9A1Y5RxHgQ8lFZOIfEX5Q9fMiESejpC1RG_vTrSw7HUtmahLRw0P-Oa68eBjJOR8bANaIrrFaQwL08HjpcDG5zs-45dH-4MuHro1ZJTkDecNlS5erLAQMfVT4tWZ4F_MNWexF45E-QEQFA/s415/General%20Hungtington.PNG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="366" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR6UeM75BbVlwGQBc7UNZ3jBNPio2p4zPCcaR6Hp3WcvYrL9A1Y5RxHgQ8lFZOIfEX5Q9fMiESejpC1RG_vTrSw7HUtmahLRw0P-Oa68eBjJOR8bANaIrrFaQwL08HjpcDG5zs-45dH-4MuHro1ZJTkDecNlS5erLAQMfVT4tWZ4F_MNWexF45E-QEQFA/s320/General%20Hungtington.PNG" width="282" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brigadier General Huntington</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div>Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-65992011089682628782019-01-19T21:19:00.003-08:002019-02-07T18:43:07.228-08:003.5 Trillion Reasons<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">No country can be strong whose people are weak and poor</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> </b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">~ Theodore Roosevelt</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf3_udSRNND2vAo4crY43FmX5lmFT863MmqyplueLev6ThqygDissBgYrqRx068N82F2s5QVvTMAuaBmo9FdkWxznHz5Iy8WFrES927pROo3EtOx-1b6n5NIuDDOTgG2nD2huf3wSVj9w/s1600/mark_glenn_studio_TR-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="416" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf3_udSRNND2vAo4crY43FmX5lmFT863MmqyplueLev6ThqygDissBgYrqRx068N82F2s5QVvTMAuaBmo9FdkWxznHz5Iy8WFrES927pROo3EtOx-1b6n5NIuDDOTgG2nD2huf3wSVj9w/s320/mark_glenn_studio_TR-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In 2018, it is estimated that 18% of GDP would represent an industry with an impact of 3.5 trillion dollars, and yet Americans are going without healthcare, expenditures are rising, and more than 70% of the electorate now prefers the idea of single-payer healthcare. The Tfight in front of the United States will be epic. There are about 3.5 trillion reasons why. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd7q0gHS63w-90LGL-VhZypRvCIASw45PUPXR7p4xvBJiZBVi8RsrvWczO8MY2h0xO-p1GR24Vy1p7Ue0BdhxrCA_f7lRIvLhXT1h3AjiNiHp3DO46xwoY0D5zYx4FwTvFp_H_faLpl4/s1600/HC+Comps+Bar+Chart+OECD.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="782" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd7q0gHS63w-90LGL-VhZypRvCIASw45PUPXR7p4xvBJiZBVi8RsrvWczO8MY2h0xO-p1GR24Vy1p7Ue0BdhxrCA_f7lRIvLhXT1h3AjiNiHp3DO46xwoY0D5zYx4FwTvFp_H_faLpl4/s400/HC+Comps+Bar+Chart+OECD.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The United States of America leads all other wealthy countries in expenditures per person.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">As the 20th century dawned, the United States had yet to form a health care system, there were no retirement benefits, no social security, the young nation was just being able to forget a bloody civil war, the west had been opened, and the young nation was gathering steam as an economic power. As th</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">e United States came of age; healthcare became an ongoing topic of political discourse. Americans moved away from their farms and headed toward the big city. The era of doctors making housecalls in a horse-drawn buggy were at an end.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-_eBVo7HQH0l8LtNgskhmw-LCj6DyckXCLGWNywEC2JniSqZ1Y_bQ0QsJD2EH2z-MkEmYWOE6KQKItjuPittP5OIRp1KkPzCjt3jUEk9_WonhWrpds6-AcvZQEaoZG31tTRqdfr25poE/s1600/LBJ+and+Harry+Truman+sign+bill+extending+Social+Security.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="600" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-_eBVo7HQH0l8LtNgskhmw-LCj6DyckXCLGWNywEC2JniSqZ1Y_bQ0QsJD2EH2z-MkEmYWOE6KQKItjuPittP5OIRp1KkPzCjt3jUEk9_WonhWrpds6-AcvZQEaoZG31tTRqdfr25poE/s320/LBJ+and+Harry+Truman+sign+bill+extending+Social+Security.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">As the twentieth century moved out of the WWI era, the cost of healthcare had already skyrocketed beyond the affordability of most Americans, this led to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) trying to establish a Medicare for all program and the creation of old age pensions. Political compromise saw the healthcare provisions removed while Social Security was established. It was a political tradeoff.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Harry Truman tried to revive FDR’s health care plan, amplifying it to allow for coverage for everyone. The opposition howled that it was right out of the communist playbook. Truman abandoned the plan as the Korean War broke out, but years later he saw Medicare come to exist as President Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) signed Medicare into existence in a ceremony he conspicuously decided to hold at the Truman Presidential Library. It was a nod to the efforts of President Truman for his efforts to find a way to provide more healthcare to the American people.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf3fsXhc2-U6X3ZbjshZQOiWfZUy2_vaMdt0GRdvW9EX3O13n7xbIJ1npP_PuLfN9CWN_hyphenhyphenzutX3emDTD5uJI5V6IwKhR50juAEl6IbFZO2gDMO2l7gcC3H6pncyy8tdJjJRDVKWf6nDY/s1600/medicare-rev-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="360" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf3fsXhc2-U6X3ZbjshZQOiWfZUy2_vaMdt0GRdvW9EX3O13n7xbIJ1npP_PuLfN9CWN_hyphenhyphenzutX3emDTD5uJI5V6IwKhR50juAEl6IbFZO2gDMO2l7gcC3H6pncyy8tdJjJRDVKWf6nDY/s320/medicare-rev-3.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In 1960 the federal government began to track national healthcare expenditures (NHE), this is when we started linking it to the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) and it started tracking at 5% of GDP; today it’s over 18%. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">President John F. Kennedy (JFK) tried for universal coverage, but instead of through the normal channels, JFK went directly to the American people. The American Medical Association (AMA) opposition was harsh, well funded, and very strong. The AMA lobbying efforts dragged the fight out. It was a fight JFK would not be able to finish. LBJ was a gifted legislator and used the legacy of JFK to expand coverage through Social Security for seniors and disabled citizens, ushering in the Social Security Act of 1965, crafting the foundation of Medicare and Medicaid.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Senator Ed</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">ward "Ted" Kennedy, in the 1970s, proposed single payer healthcare similar to Canada, but President Nixon wanted corporations to</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> provide healthcare instead. The thinking was that working-age citizens would have healthcare from their employers and seniors would get healthcare from the government. Kennedy and Nixon were able to work together across the aisle before Watergate erupted, HMO’s were created and social security was expanded. As Reagan came to power, the US was spending nearly 9% of GDP on healthcare. The Reagan White House facilitated the removal of numerous regulations while creating COBRA, a benefit still available today.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">By the time Clinton was president, the NHE had passed 12% of GDP. The Clinton administration had strong hopes for a state-based cooperative. The Clinton plan enshrined the concept of not allowing pre-existing conditions to be considered. Corporations would be required to supply healthcare for all full-time employees. The Clinton administration was unable to attain their goals regarding healthcare, but Clinton did usher in CHIP and Medicaid for uninsured children. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">George Bush started when NHE was at 13.3% of GDP, and he facilitated Medicare Part D. Every President that tried to move America towards single payer healthcare met unsurmountable resistance on a number of levels. But each did leave a legacy that helped more American citizens get healthcare.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The attacks on 9/11 and the second Iraq war elbowed the health care debate to the sidelines. When the PPACA a.k.a. Obamacare was devised, the NHE was eclipsing 17% of GDP (17.4%). Almost ten years later, the rate of growth of healthcare expenditures has finally slowed but it still checks in at an estimated 18.2% (estimated for 2018).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Now, in 2019, after narrowly escaping the full repeal of Obamacare during the first half of the Trump administration and coming within a mere vote of seeing tens of millions of Americans lose their health care, the debate continues to rage. Only now the tide has turned. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Democratic candidates beginning the process of lining up to run for President of the United States in 2020 are making single payer healthcare a debate that is front and center. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The healthcare debate in the United States has been laden with drama during the Trump Administration. While data shows the rate of expenditure growth is starting to slow at the same time more Americans are getting coverage, nobody is talking about the data points. Healthcare has, and always will be, one of those wedge issues that can make or break a Presidential campaign. When over 70% of Americans want single-payer healthcare, you can be sure we will hear a lot about during this campaign cycle.</span></div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-84015753249323019432018-12-17T10:29:00.005-08:002023-01-04T13:22:46.107-08:00Good Manners<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The spirit of the holidays is now upon us. Yet even though we have so much to be grateful for, our people continue to find themselves deeply divided. It’s not as pronounced where I live because of demographic similarities. I live in a place where similar views impact a very wide range of subjects. In this environment, it would be rather difficult to offer an unpopular or contrary viewpoint without inviting, shall we say, some hassles. As the old saying goes, “be careful not to invite that which bothers you”.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I sit here typing this with a business card from a national leader of the Sons of the American Revolution in front of me. I am considering joining their organization. I’m also considering the Mayflower Society, so this is something for me to think about. The Declaration of Independence was signed by one of my ancestors, Samuel Huntington. Our first ancestor to the New World preceded Samuel by one hundred and fifty-six years, arriving on the Mayflower in 1620. My family has a very long history in the colonies, and we've fought in every major conflict our nation has had; including my own service with the US Army.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Unlike military service, I’ve been cognizant that there have been some who have questioned the motivations of a person who chooses political office. I find many people take a dim view of anybody who serves in political office, and this seems to be a default position. I was introduced to that concept one fine day when I mentioned my interest in political office to somebody I admired, in hopes to gather some advice and wisdom. When that person asked why I’d care to denigrate myself and lower myself to join such a dishonorable club of miscreants, I was blown away. It never occurred to me that there would be any exploitation or self-enrichment.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Going on six years now, with tours as Deputy Mayor and Councilor in two different municipalities, I’ve seen different sides of similar issues several times. Ironically, there has been no enrichment and, as a matter of curiosity, I've kept close track of time spent in service and have estimated that council remuneration does not enrich someone. It is, instead, a function that probably returns a net between two and four dollars per hour, sometimes less, but never more. In fairness, I thought people might like to know that bit of trivia. If there are some politicians lining their pockets somehow, I have no idea how they do it.<br />
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I tend to focus on what is best for our constituents and the local economy. I like to support the economic development arena with enthusiasm. Kind of like instant replay, my default position is to say yes unless there are obvious reasons why something should not take place. Whether right or wrong, when the decision has been taken, that’s our direction. Sometimes there will be people who want to have decisions rehashed and, in some cases, they will fight for recognition of their views long after decisions have been taken.<br />
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The art of being able to move forward, with each other, is important. The difference between a political leader and a private citizen is that the political leader makes their decision in the public eye. They must be prepared to have their decision blasted by those who disagree whereas the private citizen is not required to make any pronouncement on dicey matters, thereby shielding themselves from the anger of those whose views align differently.<o:p></o:p></div>
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This all brings us full circle to the anger we have in our society. As the anger grows, the ability to express an opinion freely is diminished until finally, there are no dissenting opinions. Fear of retribution for honestly and openly discussing important issues is a powerful influence. While the current day issues come and go and leaders change, we should always keep an eye on the health of our core values of liberty and freedom. Allowing people to express themselves without fear of humiliation is important. It is an essential ingredient of our form of government; it’s also good manners.<br />
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-11299223739428927862018-12-02T12:14:00.001-08:002018-12-02T12:15:58.467-08:00AMLO<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">AMLO Receives Baston at ceremony in Zocalo, Capitalino</td></tr>
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AMLO, now the 58<sup>th</sup> President of the United Mexican States has sent the nation a resounding statement that the people will not be sold out by their President. There are many things one can call Andreas Manual Lopez Obrador, but dishonest is not one of them. To the point of fault, AMLO is and always has been very forthright and up front.<br />
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AMLO is from a life where he knows, from personal experience, what it is like to walk on a dirt floor at home. He understands grinding poverty, lack of opportunity, and systemic discrimination from firsthand experience. Now he wears the tri-colour sash of the Presidency and he holds a commanding majority in the lower house (Cámara de Diputados), and a strong coalition majority in the upper chamber (Cámara de Senadores). No democratically elected President of Mexico has ever ascended to the office with such a mandate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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During his speech in Zocalo, he spoke of delivering health care to all Mexicans with a system similar to Canada or the Scandinavian countries. He would build clinics and schools, and Mexico would no longer leave the farthest reaches of the country out of the fold, there would be help for many places including Mexicali, San Louis de Colorado, Nogales… these are names that have big meaning in Arizona. To hear these names spoken in Zocalo by AMLO, it was unprecedented. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mexican Peso / US Dollar (one year)</td></tr>
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But Mexico has challenges, in particular, the challenges of foreign direct investment. Since his election, AMLO has softened his tone somewhat. But his cancellation of the Mexico City airport project is seen, by many in the foreign investment community, as a warning signal. The project, originally budgeted for 13 billion, would likely require the government to assure some 6 billion in bonds, so any costs associated with cancellation are to be in addition to securing the original bondholders. This must be done in order to retain global investor confidence.</div>
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AMLO has announced his intention to invest in creating good jobs for his people, and you can see the Yucatan and the Southern States will prosper from a few major job-creating projects. One of his pronouncements has been the dismal results of the steps toward the privatization of the oil and gas industry, something I <a href="http://gordongroat.blogspot.com/2013/12/si-mexican-senate-and-energy-reforms-in.html" target="_blank">wrote about</a> this in 2013, when I watched the historic vote take place in the Camara. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Isthmus of Tehuantepec</td></tr>
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AMLO will be revisiting that decision and likely seeking to restore state ownership in certain aspects as of yet undetermined. AMLO also intends to forge ahead with many projects;</div>
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<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Maya train project</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">New petroleum refinery in Tobasco</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Isthmus of Tehuantepec to link rail from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The renovation of PEMEX</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Free internet coverage in public spaces</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Planting a million hectares of fruit trees and timber</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Doubling old age pension so seniors may live in dignity</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Investing in education through grants for all high school students</span></li>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-86876409561113010152018-11-15T20:41:00.001-08:002023-01-04T13:25:23.755-08:00Sin Die<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Procedurally, the Mayor asked for a motion to adopt resolution number 18-3268 amending resolution number 93-874, fixing the monthly compensation of the Mayor and City Councilmembers.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio6Er6eOgxkomZ9fImraU1SgP85glcyYNCuRjhmM_UUOUyEle4cRh-GbJ930lZLedgnfdmQ9rhX6d3L_JOo0f7uaH_PAbG7Y3jjKx6vZkPFDsXwtKDN-v0L6KMkjhJoRcJ-9uOiWWhN1I/s1600/1993.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="767" data-original-width="910" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio6Er6eOgxkomZ9fImraU1SgP85glcyYNCuRjhmM_UUOUyEle4cRh-GbJ930lZLedgnfdmQ9rhX6d3L_JOo0f7uaH_PAbG7Y3jjKx6vZkPFDsXwtKDN-v0L6KMkjhJoRcJ-9uOiWWhN1I/s320/1993.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
When the motion was made, it did not receive a second. As such, the motion does not rise to debate, it falls off the table sin die, meaning there will be no reconsideration at a future date. The matter is closed.<br />
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For background, the mover and two other members would not receive an increase through said resolution.<br />
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The Mayor should take home more than a council member if these positions are, in fact, to be paid. There are more demands on the Mayor's time due to very extensive public appearances and meetings. Every group wants the Mayor to visit with them. It is an exceptionally rare day when a group or some public entity would call up City Hall to ask for some council member to appear. That just doesn't happen. Let's face it, many people wouldn't even recognize most of their council, but they sure do know their Mayor. It's the Mayor who everybody wants to see!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghxjNyYw2gH64RqJqOCaVsXcfDk7JzNgKrJSD1afye1SqDHnL3kdItSn-tLDhi59Oo0UhfibwoZ_HQC_ZXDn8cMK349Em-AckJVS3ARn5tzHzNHWKbsa9H22XqdC0WvL66ZQ9v6WS-FOA/s1600/monopoly-man-rich-guy.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghxjNyYw2gH64RqJqOCaVsXcfDk7JzNgKrJSD1afye1SqDHnL3kdItSn-tLDhi59Oo0UhfibwoZ_HQC_ZXDn8cMK349Em-AckJVS3ARn5tzHzNHWKbsa9H22XqdC0WvL66ZQ9v6WS-FOA/s320/monopoly-man-rich-guy.jpg" style="cursor: move;" width="320" /></a>During the conversation, the incumbent Mayor of the last 12 years expressed his concerns this matter would be kicked down the road indefinitely. Estimates of hourly earning would be impacted by a number of things; back of the napkin calculations arrive at these:<br />
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Mayor = $4.74 per hour</div>
Council = $2.17 per hour<br />
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There is variation in these calculations because they vary depending on how many events a council member goes to and how much work they put in at home researching, reading, and preparing. From the expense side, as an example, a member might have to pay for a $25 or $50 meal. In addition, there are usually in-event fundraisers to donate to. These expenses are not reimbursed.<br />
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Sometimes members are given a courtesy meal if they are speaking or presenting at an event, but a lot of the time the council member reaches into their pocketbook to pay. Some members go to several such events on a monthly basis, which would heavily discount their effective rate. During very busy months, it can produce negative cash flow. And for clarity, there is an option for elected officials to participate in a statewide retirement system, but Lake Havasu does not participate.<br />
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I was asked if I am using the city's health care plan. I don't know which members of the council avail themselves of the city's health care plan and at what level, nor would I ask them or in any way represent their response pursuant to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. It's just not my business.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUsNYR6MjEkHaz-6w66pwu6GWPpf60-DyDfeZjKEGKKxBskX9IHCuHomGYfyPMzd2W1sNfq08kVGu4mFl6P2xXna8L3faAg0OHdbw53rFjoI1uxp28-xc7x-r3MfsB98-prVaDWi9U9qo/s1600/New+CEO.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1502" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUsNYR6MjEkHaz-6w66pwu6GWPpf60-DyDfeZjKEGKKxBskX9IHCuHomGYfyPMzd2W1sNfq08kVGu4mFl6P2xXna8L3faAg0OHdbw53rFjoI1uxp28-xc7x-r3MfsB98-prVaDWi9U9qo/s320/New+CEO.jpg" width="300" /></a>When I was a healthcare CEO with oversight of a large regional employer, healthcare was the largest component of our employee-related expenses. When we look at remuneration, it is natural for healthcare benefits to be considered part of the overall "total rewards" package we offer to employees. Healthcare, dental, vision, life insurance, disability, paid time off, sick days, paid family leave, and maternity leave are all considered part of the overall basket of benefits. These benefits are usually inclusive of a matching 401k plan or, possibly, a retirement plan synchronized by larger groups, such as a state organization.<br />
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There are assumptions that require normalization if we are to leverage them to understand overall compensation packages. The development of a model for this with input fields applicable to public officials does require the removal of commonly leveraged fields. For instance, in some municipalities, the Mayor and Council have no retirement plan nor do they receive IRA and/or 401k funds. We are not involved with any retirement plans so this data field would be removed. Things like foregone revenue, however, would need to be added. For example, if a council member takes two work days off for the city's budget deliberations, they cannot earn income from their job for those two days nor will they be paid by the city for this time. These budget deliberations shape the future of the city and account for hundreds of millions of dollars and directly impact some 450 plus employees and their families. This category of time is referred to as foregone revenue and should be calculated at the rate of the private employer, but then we ask if that would be net or inclusive of any benefits accrued separately. Then we have to ask if this might be calculated based on benefitted positions or if consulting rates may be applied. After normalizing many different unique circumstances, we can test various assumptions to evaluate the impact on the ratepayers.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZi-h5ngzy7YTn0dJj5yYWnGbuB1jqESzlK8_otEoq-idatyNBAZg7af2SSuwHMSUm6LiA1ikFE-H8BRzHoLxKBp-LHWZF77QPdDbN3qz7zB7tilZp4oJh6W5zQi6fHPvk6NQ-mUYeDJo/s1600/marcus_aurelius.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="958" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZi-h5ngzy7YTn0dJj5yYWnGbuB1jqESzlK8_otEoq-idatyNBAZg7af2SSuwHMSUm6LiA1ikFE-H8BRzHoLxKBp-LHWZF77QPdDbN3qz7zB7tilZp4oJh6W5zQi6fHPvk6NQ-mUYeDJo/s320/marcus_aurelius.jpg" width="320" /></a>According to some citizens, there should be no pay at all. Unfortunately, such a policy would probably act as a deterrent to a cross-section of people currently in the workforce. Many who need income from multiple streams would be grateful to serve, but they might not be able to reasonably afford a campaign. If elected, they could face the prospect of giving up income.<br />
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Offering a net effective rate below minimum wage is likely to discourage low-income people from engaging in elected office. In my opinion, the government is enhanced by diversity. Structuring ways to stifle socioeconomic diversity in a democracy is counterproductive to the intent of the institution itself.<br />
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I suspect it would be safer, from a legal standpoint, to either have the office be entirely free and removed from employment status with the city or paid at the level of Arizona's minimum wage. Either direction, it seems, would remove the implications of contravening legislation like the U.S. Fair Labor Standards Act and Arizona's Fair Wages and Healthy Families Act. Of the two options, I think it prudent to choose minimum wage. The question would remain, however, as to how the wages would be tallied up and what the formulas would look like.</div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-92133895020998935312018-10-17T21:19:00.000-07:002018-10-17T21:37:33.337-07:00Water in the Desert<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">Lower Colorado River Basin Water and LHC</span></h2>
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Lake Mead and Lake Powell - The Balancing Act</h2>
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Both are increasingly functioning as one reservoir system whereby elevations have been managed to maintain Lower Colorado River water users in a “non-shortage” position. Due to years of drought conditions reducing inflows, the system now suffers from substantial drawdowns imposed by the expanding structural deficit, currently about 770,000 acre-feet per year. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which has priority one water rights, plans an additional use of 200,000 acre-feet in the coming year.</div>
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Without any offsetting cutbacks, we are approaching a shortage mark of a million acre-feet per year. That would be, roughly estimated, about 325 billion gallons of water or enough for about 4.46 million people to use around 200 gallons of water per day for one year. That’s our structural deficit in the Lower Colorado River Basin. When we combine that with the naturally declining shape of the reservoir system, we can deduce that elevation levels will erode faster and faster assuming all other conditions remain equal or on trend lines; conditions like weather and rainfall. Finally, some emerging research has shown indicators there could be more sedimentation in the system than previously thought. That, of course, would be yet another detraction from system storage capacity.<br />
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The U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation operates the hydropower output of the Western United States. Hydropower plants currently account for about 7% of the U.S. energy mixture. In Arizona, most of our electricity is generated by natural gas and nuclear energy. Hoover Dam produces about 4 billion kilowatt-hours per year (Reclamation U. B., 2018), enough for about 1.3 million people. Arizona uses about 18.9% while Nevada gets 23.3%, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California gets 28.5%, Los Angeles gets 15.4%, and there are numerous smaller allocations.<br />
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It is important to keep in mind that should the lake fall to an elevation below the required level for generating electricity, we would be pulling those kilowatt hours out of the regional distribution system. That would create a requirement to import power. The long-term compensatory mechanism is filling in the capacity by building power generation infrastructure. If hydro-generated electricity from the Colorado River Dam system is compromised, some estimates would suggest consumers could be hit with 25% (or more) additional cost per kilowatt hour. Water shortages that reduce electricity generation capacity will translate to higher power costs.<br />
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The elevation in Lake Mead that triggers a federally declared shortage is 1,075 feet. A recent study (AMWUA, 2018) from the Bureau of Reclamation Boulder Canyon Operations Office shows that projecting 8.23 million acre-feet released from Powell in 2018 would leave Powell’s elevation above 3,575 feet and Lake Mead would be below 1,075 feet, this would be a trigger point and is projected to transpire in May of 2019, one month after a shortage declaration point in April, thereby postponing an actual shortage declaration until 2020, unless inflows more than offset expected losses.<br />
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2018 water year hydrology summary shows the unregulated inflow to Lake Powell was 4.76 maf, or about 44% of the average year based on a 30-year data set. Cumulative precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin was about 44% of average with snowpack at about 73% of average. Tributary inflow to Lake Mead was 27% of average from the Little Colorado River and about 51% of average from the Virgin river. The Colorado River total system experienced a net decrease of 4.51 maf (Reclamation U. D., 2018) during the water year to date.<br />
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Careful management of water release while balancing the requirements of electricity generation mean the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is engaged in strategic shifting or balancing of the lakes that allow them to operate within the scope of their requirements and hopefully, engage in a profile of operations that maximize electricity generation potential while mitigating and postponing a federally declared shortage.<br />
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A shortage declaration is governed by a set of Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) regulations known as the 2007 interim guidelines. The guidelines include key factors used when determining the declaration of shortage. The 2007 interim guidelines are part of a record of decision (ROD) concerning Colorado River interim guidelines for lower basin shortages and coordinated operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. (Department of the Interior, 2018)<br />
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Lake Havasu City Ramifications </h2>
It seems probable, all else equal, that a shortage declaration is likely to take place in 2020 unless inflows into the overall system are well above normal. BOR publishes 24-month studies, these are studies done each month and rolled up to create a 2-year view. Recent 24-month studies show the structural deficit being stressed by continued drought conditions. If drought conditions remain like those we have seen in the last 24-month period, a federally declared shortage could be declared for 2020. If that transpires, there will be cutbacks to priority 4 water in Arizona.<br />
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Precipitation models continue to disappoint, and while there is some hope for El Niño to bring higher than normal precipitation, the impacts of climate change may more than offset any potential El Niño impact due to an extended growth season for deciduous plant life throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin. While it is possible precipitation may increase somewhat, predictive models show the extended season and higher temperatures impact upon vegetation use of moisture would more than offset increased precipitation. Warmer temperatures and a longer warm season will exacerbate drought conditions whenever precipitation levels fall below normal; all of which is consistent with recent trends. All which compounds to create a growing water deficit.<br />
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Lake Havasu secures 100% of its drinking water from the Colorado River by way of surface allocation. Currently, the City of Lake Havasu has rights to approximately 29,000 acre-feet of water per year, we are using less than half that amount or somewhere between 13,000 and 14,000 acre-feet. Our current allocation of water should provide adequate water use for a population roughly twice our size. This is an amazing position to be in because even if there were, for instance, a cut back of deliveries based on entitlements, our excess easily absorbs any intermediate range cutbacks.<br />
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Lake Havasu City Water Profile </h3>
Drinking water is drawn from a Ranney well that has a production capacity of about 26 million gallons per day (mgd). The Ranney well is essentially a large diameter vertical well with numerous horizontal arms extending into a porous formation immediately under the floor of the lake. This creates a natural filtration system for the water as it is drawn into the Ranney well, and from there it is delivered to the water plant for processing.<br />
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The city maintains some 483 miles of water distribution lines that range from 36” down to 4” and serves over 31,000 residential and commercial water service points. The city maintains twenty-six tanks throughout seven pressure zones ranging from the highest elevations in the city down towards the lowest areas leveraging gravity to assist in managing pressure zones in optimal states and using lift stations where gravity is insufficient for operational requirements.<br />
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The city’s water infrastructure requires ongoing maintenance and water quality testing. The two capital intensive items to consider in forward budgeting are a secondary water supply, meaning a second Ranney well or the consideration of drilling horizontal wells under the lake, in a similar fashion to the current Ranney well. There may be some existing vertical wells where modifications may be leveraged to create horizontal access and/or new wells. I expect the cost (and risk) would be spread out across several vertical to horizontal wells enough to extend capacity during a complete shut-in event of the primary Ranney well.<br />
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The city does need a robust backup system, so we can have full cutover capability in order to take the Ranney well completely offline should that be required for maintenance needs. The cost to set up parallel production capacity that approximates our current system is going to be significant, this is part of our budget planning for water infrastructure. Accurate budget holders will depend on project timelines, capacity, abandonment costs, and the myriad of expenses associated with access, licensure, environmental, and reclamation.<br />
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I believe it is unlikely that any new ROD, or even an adjustment of the existing 2007 Interim Guidelines will bypass the intent or structure of the existing federal guidelines. In other words, there will be no major initiatives to create new “Acts of Congress” to deal with this. Instead, this is a process that has been ongoing with the U.S. Department of the Interior in the driver’s seat.<br />
<br />
The State of Arizona currently has a steering committee that is meeting to cover areas where water conservation can be leveraged. Negotiations surrounding intentionally created surplus management will be an important part of the 2019 operating plan. Our hopes are to leverage what we must to facilitate the best outcome for the region while maintaining our full allotment of water rights.<br />
<br />
Dealing with minor cutbacks to our full allotment would, essentially, be inconsequential and rightfully so, the city has done amazing work with conservation and getting average consumption per person almost halved since conservation efforts started many years ago. Having water allocation cutbacks drawn up based on actual use would be very different. It would be seen as a functional cap on the region population level. So far, we are not aware of any precedence in any of the legal agreements, acts, or other governing instruments that can be leveraged in such a manner as to drive cutbacks upon stated current use versus full allotment. Further, California, having a vast holding of 1st priority rights, is now starting to be more open to a dialogue of water conservation as a mechanism to limit their withdrawals.<br />
<br />
California understands that if we drive the level of the lakes down far enough, to the point where it becomes dead storage at 895 feet, they’ll go below the level where we can release any water at all. At that point, California would have lots of priority 1 water rights, but no ability to draw any water. The states duly impacted by a federal shortage will be able to negotiate under the already established guidelines and acts but going outside of that to establish entirely new government policy at the federal level is not likely to happen on the time frame being considered. Therefore, I believe our water supply is in good shape, that we should continue to invest in monitoring and defending the principle of keeping mainstream water on the Colorado River and preventing it from being creatively liberated from our groundwater supplies through programs such as fallowing.<br />
<br />
NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission (GRACE) created a nine-year slice of data analyzed for the Colorado River System; it showed groundwater accounted for 50.1 km3 of the total 64.8 km3 of freshwater loss. Groundwater is being depleted as a vastly greater rate than surface water and may impact our ability to continue to meet scheduled deliveries. This is the data, I’m afraid, I do not hear people discussing. But this data is real and I am concerned it may be even more important than the dropping levels of Lake Mead; yet it appears most of the stakeholders are blissfully unaware of the GRACE Mission data. At the very least, the rate of groundwater depletion will exacerbate the water shortage in the basin.<br />
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
The Bigger Picture for Regional Water </h2>
Unfortunately, the larger picture is that climate change is likely to have a net negative impact on the water situation for Arizona. If we continue to exacerbate the drought without seeing Lake Mead and Lake Powell start to rise again, then we are in for a fast acceleration through our shortage levels. The main reason for that is twofold… the first is obvious, yet almost entirely overlooked. We think of the surface of either lake, but the lake is a reservoir, and to really understand the volumes, one must think of what it is like as a vessel.<br />
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The above image shows a view that brings the matter of volume into clear focus. In addition, new research is emerging from Lake Havasu City insomuch as a recent underwater mapping project has revealed more sedimentary deposits than are currently used with widespread existing modeling data, thus creating some potential that certain volume assumptions may be somewhat overstated. It is thought this might apply beyond Lake Havasu; and thus render a larger impact on the entire system.<br />
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Lake Havasu City's Priority 4 (P4) Water Rights are roughly outlined below. For reference, we use about 13,000 to 14,000 acre feet per year (estimated 2017) and we have over 28,000 acre feet authorized. Even with cutbacks to those allocations, we would still have an excess of water rights over water useage, and that's how the hottest city in the nation manages to have enough water during an extended drought. And of course, Lake Havasu City has extensive conservation efforts that have paid huge dividends over the years.<br />
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
The Law of the River</h2>
The law of the river is not one set of codified articles set about in some leather-bound book on the shelves of fancy law offices. Instead, it is a mixture of various acts, key legal decisions, compacts, plans, traditions, and treaties; there is also a historical context.<br />
<br />
The Secretary of the Interior, through the Bureau of Reclamation, is responsible for water management throughout the United States. The Bureau of Reclamation’s authority is limited throughout the western United States by various reclamation instruments and acts of Congress.<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Acts of Congress </h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Reclamation Act of 1902</li>
<li>Boulder Canyon Project Act of 1928</li>
<li>The Colorado River Storage Project Act</li>
<li>Colorado River Storage Act 1956</li>
<li>Colorado River Basin Act of 1968</li>
<li>Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 </li>
</ul>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Key Legal Decisions / Compacts / Treaties</h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>US Supreme Court, Arizona vs. California 1963</li>
<li>US Supreme Court Consolidated Decree, Arizona vs. California 2006</li>
<li>Colorado River Compact 1992</li>
<li>Upper Colorado River Basin Compact 1948</li>
<li>Mexican Water Treaty 1944</li>
<li>Key Information Points on Shortage Declarations 2007 Interim Guidelines</li>
<li>The 2007 Record of Decision creating the 2007 Interim Guidelines - ROD expires 2026</li>
</ul>
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<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Annual Operating Plan </h3>
Section 602(b) of the CRBPA of 1968 requires that the Secretary transmit to the Congress and to the Governors of the Basin States, by January 1st of each year, a report describing the actual operation under the LROC for the preceding compact water year and the projected operation for the current year. This report is commonly referred to as the “Annual Operating Plan” or the “AOP.” In 1992, in the Grand Canyon Protection Act, Congress required that, in preparing the 602(b) AOP, the Secretary shall consult with the Governors of the Basin States and with the general public, including representatives of academic and scientific communities, environmental organizations, the recreation industry; and contractors for the purpose of federal power produced at Glen Canyon Dam.<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
24 Month Study - April Adjustment </h3>
April adjustments to Lake Powell operations in the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (as specified in Sections 6.B.3. and 6.B.4.) shall be based on the April 24 Month Study projections of the September 30 system storage and reservoir water surface elevations for the current Water Year. Any such adjustments shall not require re-initiation of the AOP consultation process. In making these projections, the Secretary shall utilize the April 1 final forecast of the April through July runoff, currently provided by the National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.<br />
Off-stream Banking<br />
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The diversion of Colorado River water to underground storage facilities for use in subsequent Years from the facility used by a Contractor diverting such water<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Key Definitions </h3>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<h4>
Water Year</h4>
October 1st through September 30th<br />
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
24-Month Study </h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The projections are updated each month using the previous month’s reservoir contents and the latest inflow and water use forecasts. In these Guidelines, the term “projected on January 1” shall mean the projection of the January 1 reservoir contents provided by the 24-Month Study that is conducted in August of the previous Year. </div>
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Contractor </h4>
An entity holding an entitlement to Mainstream water under (a) the Consolidated Decree, (b) a water delivery contract with the United States through the Secretary, or (c) a reservation of water by the Secretary, whether the entitlement is obtained under (a), (b) or (c) before or after the adoption of these Guidelines.<br />
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Direct Delivery Domestic Use </h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Direct delivery of water to domestic end users or other municipal and industrial water providers within the Contractor’s area of normal service, including incidental regulation of Colorado River water supplies within the Year of operation but not including Off-stream Banking. For the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) Direct Delivery Domestic Use shall include delivery of water to end users within its area of normal service, incidental regulation of Colorado River water supplies within the Year of operation, and Off-stream Banking only with water delivered through the Colorado River Aqueduct. </div>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) </h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Surplus Colorado River System water available for use under the terms and conditions of a Delivery Agreement, a Forbearance Agreement, and these Guidelines. </div>
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<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
Current Status </h2>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Lake Mead Elevation Projections </h3>
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Precipitation (October 2017 – June 2018) The bulk of the entire Colorado River basin, both lower and upper, has received at least 30% less precipitation than average, this is exacerbated in the lower basin where many areas are experiencing less than half the average precipitation. While there is some potential for a return of the El Niño weather pattern, the impact that may have on precipitation in the Colorado River Basin may be negligible.<br />
<br />
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as of September 13th, 2018, is predicting a 50-55% chance of an El Niño onset in the Northern Hemisphere in the September to October timeframe, increasing to a 65-70% chance of an El Niño during the winter months. The October 2017 to June 2018 precipitation map shows severe shortages over the clear majority of the Colorado River Basin with only a handful of areas in Northern Colorado and Southern Wyoming experiencing average or slightly above average precipitation.<br />
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Colorado River Basin Precipitation (October 2017 to June 2018) – National Weather Service (NOAA)<br />
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The Bureau of Reclamation 24-month study provides data for operational guidelines. This includes a combined monthly/annual methodology to determine the annual release volume for Lake Powell. Methodology consists of a January 1 determination of the release volume with appropriate April adjustments to those volumes in order to provide necessary flexibility to respond to changing inflow forecasts while ensuring that the operation does not result in excessive changes in monthly releases from Lake Powell.<br />
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April adjustments to Lake Powell operations in the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (as specified in Sections 6.B.3. and 6.B.4.) shall be based on the April 24-Month Study projections of the September 30 system storage and reservoir water surface elevations for the current Water Year. Any such adjustments shall not require re-initiation of the AOP consultation process. In making these projections, the Secretary shall utilize the April 1 final forecast of the April through July runoff, currently provided by the National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, which is a monthly study on a 24-month cycle.<br />
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2007 Interim Guideline Definitions Normal Condition A “Normal Condition” exists when the Secretary determines that sufficient mainstream water is available to satisfy 7.5 million acre-feet (maf) of annual consumptive use in the Lower Division states (Arizona, California, and Nevada). If a state will not use all of its apportioned water for the year, the Secretary may allow other states of the Lower Division to use the unused apportionment, provided that the use is authorized by a water delivery contract with the Secretary.<br />
<br />
Surplus Condition A “Surplus Condition” exists when the Secretary determines that sufficient mainstream water is available for release to satisfy consumptive use in the Lower Division states in excess of 7.5 maf annually. The water available for excess consumptive use is surplus and is distributed for use in Arizona, California, and Nevada pursuant to the terms and conditions provided in the ISG. The current provisions of the ISG are scheduled to terminate in 2016. In general terms, the ISG link the availability of surplus water to the elevation of Lake Mead. When Lake Mead is full and Reclamation is making flood control releases, surplus supplies are unlimited. As Lake Mead’s elevation drops, surplus water amounts are reduced, and ultimately eliminated. The ISG also link surplus availability to continued progress by California in reducing its agricultural use of water to benchmarks established in the ISG. If a state does not use all of its apportioned water for the year, the Secretary may allow other Lower Division states to use the unused apportionment, provided that the use is authorized by a water delivery contract with the Secretary.<br />
<br />
Shortage Condition A “Shortage Condition” exists when the Secretary determines that insufficient mainstream water is available to satisfy 7.5 maf of annual consumptive use in the Lower Division states. To date, the Secretary has never made such a Interim Guidelines for the Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead December 2007 6 ROD - Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead determination, as flow in the Colorado River has been sufficient to meet Normal or Surplus delivery amounts. When making a shortage determination, the Secretary must consult with various parties as set forth in the Consolidated Decree and consider all relevant factors as specified in the LROC, including 1944 Treaty obligations, the priorities set forth in the Consolidated Decree, and the reasonable consumptive use requirements of mainstream water users in the Lower Division states. If a state does not use all of its apportioned water for the year, the Secretary may allow other Lower Division states to use the unused apportionment, provided that the use is authorized by a water delivery contract with the Secretary.<br />
<br />
Lake Mead Shortage Triggers Policy and interim guidelines were brought forward in 2007 that remain applicable.<br />
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kaf = thousand acre-feet<br />
maf = million acre-feet<br />
<br />
1,075 feet = cutback of 400 kaf<br />
1,050 feet = cutback of 500 kaf<br />
1,025 feet = cutback of 600 kaf<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Shortage Rules - Lake Mead </h3>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Below 1,075 </b></div>
In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be at or below elevation 1,075 feet and at or above 1,050 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.167 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.48 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 287,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California.<br />
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Below 1,050 </b></div>
In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be below elevation 1,050 feet and at or above 1,025 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.083 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 283,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California.<br />
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Below 1,025</b> </div>
In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be below elevation 1,025 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.0 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.32 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 280,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California. 2. During a Year when the Secretary has determined a Shortage Condition, the Secretary shall deliver Developed Shortage Supply available in a Contractor’s DSS Account at the request of the Contractor, subject to the provisions of Section 4.C. of the 2007 Interim Guidelines.<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Lake Powell Shortage Triggers </h3>
Shortage Criteria 2007 Interim Guidelines<br />
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When projections indicate Lake Powell’s elevation will be greater than 3,575 feet but Lake Mead would be lower than 1,075 feet, a short-term shortage would take effect. That impact would be felt by way of the reduction of 400,000 acre-feet per year. Beyond that, the numbers are set at 500,000 acre-feet at an elevation of 1,050 feet and 600,000 acre-feet when Lake Mead’s elevation drops to 1,025 feet.<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Mohave County Power Generation & Misc. Water Use Data Points </h3>
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2015 Mohave County Generated 3,839.25 gigawatt hours<br />
2015 Tucson 80 gallons per capita per day (GPCD)<br />
2015 US Average 83 GPCD<br />
2015 Arizona Average 146 GPCD<br />
2015 New Mexico and Texas 81 GPCD (lowest in US)<br />
2015 Idaho 186 GPCD (highest in US)<br />
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
Structural Deficit </h2>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
Rebalancing Lake Mead & Lake Powell Policy and interim guidelines allow for rebalancing Lake Mead and Lake Powell for the remainder of 2018 by having additional releases from Lake Powell into Lake Mead. The conditions trigger a rebalancing that will release, from Lake Powell, not less than 8.23 million acre-feet and not greater than 9 million acre-feet. Lake Powell and Lake Mead, under the current circumstances, are projected to bypass the capacity for rebalancing activities in 2019 due to the structural imbalance build into the system. If shortage were declared, it would have distinct impacts, but most of the outcomes can be determined in advance through a careful examination of the policy, interim guidelines, and other negotiated arrangements that have been put forth amongst the various stakeholder groups, governments, and interested parties. </div>
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Current Status 2018-2019 </h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b> Lake Powell end of August 2018 levels</b></div>
Elevation for end of August 2018 was 3,597 feet (103 feet from full pool) and 11.2 maf (47 percent of full capacity). Average unregulated inflow was 8.76 maf, or 81percent of the 30-year average (1981-2010)<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b> Lake Powell Projected 2019 Release to Lake Mead</b></div>
The operating tier for water year 2019, established by the August 2018 24-Month Study, is the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier. Under this Tier the initial annual water year release volume is 8.23 maf but there is potential for an April 2019 adjustment to equalization or balancing releases. Based on the current forecast, an April adjustment to balancing releases is projected and Lake Powell is currently projected to release 9.0 maf in water year 2019. This projection will be updated each month throughout the water year.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b> Lake Powell End of water year forecast 2019</b></div>
US Bureau of Reclamation Projections indicate end of water year 2019 elevation and storage using the minimum and maximum probable inflow forecast are 3,566 feet (8.8 maf, 36 percent of capacity) and 3,648 feet (17.0 maf, 70 percent of capacity), respectively. Under these scenarios, there is a 10 percent chance that inflows will be higher, resulting in higher elevation and storage, and 10 percent chance that inflows will be lower, resulting in lower elevation and storage.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b> Metropolitan Water District (MWD) Forecast</b></div>
While continued conservation by CAP could keep the lake at 1,075 and above through 2019, California’s future use of Mead water remains a big unknown with up to 175,000 to 200,000 acre-feet of water available for withdraw from California’s Metropolitan Water District (MWD). During the same period, the Central Arizona Project, with low priority water rights, hopes to conserve 180,000 acre-feet of river water this year, essentially creating a theoretical offset for the water planned for MWD use.<br />
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</div>
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<b> U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecast</b></div>
Results of 24 Month Study published in 2018 water year for water in the Colorado River anticipates declaration of a shortage in September 2019 in Lake Mead. That would trigger the reduced water releases from federal reservoirs in “lower basin” states including Nevada and Arizona.<br />
Colorado and other “upper basin” states Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico would face increased scrutiny of flows from headwaters into the Lake Powell reservoir. On Wednesday, Lake Powell measured 49 percent full and Lake Mead measured 38 percent full.<br />
<br />
A primary goal of the CBS policy is to significantly reduce the probability of an involuntary, uncompensated shortage in excess of 500,000 acre-feet (the approximate level at which CAP deliveries would be reduced beyond that currently utilized for water banking). As shown in Figure 4, below, the probability of shortages exceeding 500,000 acre-feet is reduced to 5% or less through the entire modeled period under the CBS policy. By contrast, the probability of shortage under the baseline policy rapidly approaches 30% during this same period. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 5, below, the CBS policy reduces the probability of any involuntary shortage by approximately 20% over the next 20 years.<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Rising Power Costs</h3>
The recent drought and decrease in power production at both Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon Dam point to the dramatic costs imposed by the loss of reservoir storage. If Lake Mead falls to 1050 feet, power rates will need to be increased to an approximate composite rate of 2.31 cents/kWh, which is a 44.3% increase over current rates. Replacement power purchases would be (depending on the user) 2.9 to 3.7 times the Hoover rate. In FY03, replacement power may have cost customers an additional $24 million (Department of the Interior, 2018).<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Arizona Cutbacks</h3>
The Central Arizona Project (CAP) will be subject to the largest cutbacks. Arizona is allocated 2.8 maf annually. Most of the cutbacks are expected to impact recharge programs in the Greater Phoenix and Tucson areas, but also agricultural water deliveries as well.<br />
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<h3>
Arizona Steering Committee</h3>
The Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan ( (LDBCP, 2018) is a plan developed by Arizona, California, Nevada, and the United States to create additional contributions to Lake Mead from Arizona and Nevada, along with new contributions from California and the U.S. with incentives for additional storage in Lake Mead.<br />
<br />
Key points to conserve come from agricultural mitigation, tribal intentionally created surplus, Arizona conservation plans and excess water. Ultimately, the goal is to secure a joint resolution from the Arizona Legislature authorizing the Arizona Department of Water Resources Director to agree to the plan. Currently, the bulk of the first level of cutbacks would be borne by CAP water users.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Informational Agreements</h3>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Delivery Agreement between the United States and Imperial Irrigation District (IID)</li>
<li>Delivery Agreement between the United States and The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD)</li>
<li>Delivery Agreement between the United States, Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) and the Colorado River Commission of Nevada (CRCN)</li>
<li>Funding and Construction of the Lower Colorado River Drop 2 Storage Reservoir Project Agreement among the United States, SNWA, and CRCN</li>
<li>Lower Colorado River Basin Intentionally Created Surplus Forbearance Agreement among the Arizona Department of Water Resources, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, CRCN, the Palo Verde Irrigation District (PVID), IID, Coachella Valley Water District (CVWD), MWD, and the City of Needles</li>
<li>California Agreement for the Creation and Delivery of Extraordinary Conservation Intentionally Created Surplus among the PVID, IID, CVWD, MWD and the City of Needles </li>
</ul>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Grace Satellite Mission </h3>
The extent of groundwater loss may pose a greater threat to the water supply of the western United States than previously thought. NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, also known as the GRACE satellite mission (NASA, 2018) was designed to track changes in mass of specific geological regions, including the Colorado River Basin. The gravitational variance is then analyzed with other data points to gain an estimate of sub-surface water loss.<br />
<br />
We have two major dilemmas that our Jet Propulsion Laboratory helps to solve through the GRACE satellite mission. First, due to the overlapping governmental responsibilities and spheres of influence, there is no consolidated framework to properly assess and track sub-surface water. In the instances where data does exist, it is incomplete. In short, it’s very hard to get accurate groundwater data from all the different constituencies in such a manner that it may effectively be used for evidence-based decisions.<br />
<br />
The other major dilemma is that we really don’t know how much groundwater we have left simply because we do not know how much we started with nor do we have suitable data to declare, with confidence, what recharge rates may be. These dilemmas make it very challenging to quantify amalgamated groundwater resources with a high degree of accuracy.<br />
<br />
Accounting for month over month changes in the estimated water mass allow us to make estimates of system wide depletion rates. Monthly measurements in the change in water mass from December 2004 to November 2013 revealed the overall Colorado River Basin lost nearly 53 million acre-feet (65 cubic kilometers) of freshwater, or approximately double the volume of Lake Mead. Of that depletion, more than three-quarters of the total, approximately 41 million acre-feet, was from groundwater (Middleton, 2017).<br />
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<br />
Bibliography<br />
<br />
AMWUA. (2018, 09 05). where-we-stand. Retrieved from Arizona Municipal Water Users Association AMWUA: http://www.amwua.org/where-we-stand/issues/colorado-riverstructural-deficit<br />
<br />
Department of the Interior. (2018, 09 16). Colorado River Interim Guidelines (2007) for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Retrieved from US Bureau of Reclamation Lower Colorado Region, Programs and Strategies Record of Decision, December 2007: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/RecordofDecision.pdf<br />
<br />
Department of the Interior. (2018, 09 10). Conservation Before Shortage. Retrieved from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/alternatives/CBS2A.pdf<br />
<br />
Famiglietti, S. L. (2014). Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16).<br />
<br />
LDBCP. (2018, 09 10). Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan Steering Committee. Retrieved from Arizona Department of Water Resources: https://new.azwater.gov/sites/default/files/media/LBDCP_Steering_Committee_Roster _8.28.pdf<br />
<br />
Middleton, K. E. (2017). Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin. Water Resources Research.<br />
<br />
NASA. (2018, 09 10). Parched West Is Using Up Underground Water: NASA/UCI. Retrieved from Jet Propulsion Laboratory: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4229<br />
<br />
Reclamation, U. B. (2018, 10 01). FAQ Page. Retrieved from Reclamation Managing Water in the West: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/pao/faq.html<br />
<br />
Reclamation, U. D. (2018, 10 01). Draft AOP 2019 third consultation. Retrieved from Bureau of Reclamation: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/rsvrs/ops/aop/AOP19_Third_Consultation_draft.pdf </div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-76370692537637851392017-08-07T23:16:00.000-07:002017-08-07T23:16:15.628-07:00Globally Integrated Logistics Zone and FTZ<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924131">The Opportunity - </a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924132">Southwest and Asia Pacific Markets</a></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii_guwqPRFchCchDs7SjOZkG3lYzU4Klueo0pC8sj8bCKoZw3_mZrIxzyfwzqW-C4nJyA_D5gxseOl98oeChyphenhyphenBU6KlPuA2vtNou3-BUphyphenhyphenrMo2r9xQljU0l4Zf_1yl4UFWgQVe5pW97x8/s1600/Kingman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="630" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii_guwqPRFchCchDs7SjOZkG3lYzU4Klueo0pC8sj8bCKoZw3_mZrIxzyfwzqW-C4nJyA_D5gxseOl98oeChyphenhyphenBU6KlPuA2vtNou3-BUphyphenhyphenrMo2r9xQljU0l4Zf_1yl4UFWgQVe5pW97x8/s320/Kingman.jpg" style="cursor: move;" width="320" /></a>Kingman offers a unique intersection of air, rail, and
highway infrastructure. Proximity to major regional markets and international
markets create unparalleled geographical advantages. The confluence of the CANAMEX
Corridor through Mohave County alongside the Burlington Northern Santa Fe
Railway (BNSF) creates a “made for business” logistics hub ready to meet the
needs of increased traffic on the I-11 CANAMEX Corridor. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Low operating costs create a compelling business model and
small to mid-sized companies with market presence in the Southwest and
Asia-Pacific markets may capture proximity benefits for their supply chain.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924133"><span class="Heading2Char"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Globally Integrated Logistics Zone //
Port Regionalization</span></span></a></h4>
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The emergence of intermediate hubs (offshore terminals)
created a new hierarchy within the port system, acting as intermediate
locations. Additionally, the efficiency and capacity of container cranes
improved, enabling ports to handle larger ships and a higher containerized
throughput, particularly in the context of efficient inland distribution. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The Port of Los Angeles and other large port gateways on the
west coast must operate with a wide array of various issues that compress their
ability to grow. Deep water requirements for Post Panamax ships combined with a
wide variety of local and regional issues, have created reduced land
availability in proximity to major gateways. Inland ports, such as Kingman,
offer competitive advantages for Port operations that can be external to core
gateway operations via port regionalization. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924135">Kingman Advantages</a></h4>
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<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Class 1 Rail Access</li>
<li>I-40 Corridor Access</li>
<li>CANAMEX Corridor Access</li>
<li>Reduced Operational Costs</li>
<li>Reduced Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)</li>
<li>>7 million market <200 miles (Maricopa Co.
& Clark Co.)</li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924135">Rail Segmentation</a></h4>
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<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Aggregate</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Bio-fuels</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Chemicals</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Cullet/glass</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Machinery/equipment</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">LPG</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Lumber</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Metals</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Plastic resin</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Steel products</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Petroleum products</span></li>
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* Load Types include Dry Bulk, Liquid Bulk, Dimensional, Pulp/
Paper, Food.</div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924136">Foreign Trade Zone / FTZ</a></h4>
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Inland ports typically designate an area for a Foreign-Trade
Zones; secure areas under U.S. Customs and Border Protection supervision that
are generally considered outside CBP territory upon activation. FTZ advantages
accrue through;</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Deferral of duty</li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Deferral of excise taxes</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Tax free removal from the FTZ as per Tariff Act</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Security Level for CBP specifications</span></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924137"><span class="Heading3Char"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Foreign Trade Zone as defined by US
Customs and Border Protection:</span></span></a></div>
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Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) are secure areas under U.S.
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) supervision that are generally considered
outside CBP territory upon activation. Located in or near CBP ports of entry,
they are the United States' version of what are known internationally as
free-trade zones.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Authority for establishing these facilities is granted by
the Foreign-Trade Zones Board under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of 1934, as
amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u). The Foreign-Trade Zones Act is administered
through two sets of regulations, the FTZ Regulations (15 CFR Part 400) and CBP
Regulations (19 CFR Part 146).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Foreign and domestic merchandise may be moved into zones for
operations, not otherwise prohibited by law, including storage, exhibition,
assembly, manufacturing, and processing. All zone activity is subject to public
interest review. Foreign-trade zone sites are subject to the laws and
regulations of the United States as well as those of the states and communities
in which they are located.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Under zone procedures, the usual formal CBP entry procedures
and payments of duties are not required on the foreign merchandise unless and
until it enters CBP territory for domestic consumption, at which point the
importer generally has the choice of paying duties at the rate of either the
original foreign materials or the finished product. Domestic goods moved into
the zone for export may be considered exported upon admission to the zone for
purposes of excise tax rebates and drawback.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Qualified public or private corporations that may operate
the facilities themselves or contract for the operation sponsors foreign-trade
zones. The operations are conducted on a public utility basis, with published
rates. A typical general-purpose zone provides leasable storage/distribution
space to users in general warehouse-type buildings with access to various modes
of transportation. Many zone projects include an industrial park site with lots
on which zone users can construct their own facilities.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Subzones are normally private plant sites authorized by the
Board and sponsored by a grantee for operations that usually cannot be
accommodated within an existing general-purpose zone.<w:sdt citation="t" id="-1806687737"><!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>CITATION
Dep17 \l 1033 <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Department of
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<span style="color: #2f5496; font-family: "Calibri Light",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;"> </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924138">Advantages of an FTZ</a></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>CBP duty and federal excise tax, if applicable,
are paid when the merchandise is transferred from the zone for consumption.<br /> </li>
<li>While in the zone, merchandise is not subject to
U.S. duty or excise tax. Certain tangible personal property is generally exempt
from state and local ad valorem taxes.<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"><br /></span></span></li>
<li>Goods may be exported from the zone free of duty
and excise tax.<br /></li>
<li>CBP security requirements provide protection
against theft.<br /></li>
<li>Merchandise may remain in a zone indefinitely,
whether or not subject to duty.<br /></li>
<li>The rate of duty and tax on the merchandise
admitted to a zone may change as a result of operations conducted within the
zone. Therefore, the zone user who plans to enter the merchandise for
consumption to CBP territory may normally elect to pay either the duty rate
applicable on the foreign material placed in the zone or the duty rate
applicable on the finished article transferred from the zone whichever is to
his advantage.<br /></li>
<li>Merchandise imported under bond may be admitted
to a FTZ for the purpose of satisfying a legal requirement of exporting the
merchandise. For instance, merchandise may be admitted into a zone to satisfy
any exportation requirement of the Tariff Act of 1930, or an exportation
requirement of any other Federal law (and many state laws) insofar as the
agency charged with its enforcement deems it so.</li>
</ul>
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924139">Considerations for establishing an FTZ in Mohave
County</a></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Discussions could be parsed into several logical
parts<br /></li>
<li>Geographic Benefits / Liabilities<br /></li>
<li>Comparative Economic Benefits / Liabilities<br /></li>
<li>Work Force Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities,
Targets<br /></li>
</ul>
Each area may draw conclusions which may or may not support
the FTZ concept, but it will be beneficial to consider the first and most
important goal of any FTZ is to establish a foothold of economic opportunity
for Mohave County which can be a catalyst and act as a “launch pad” for the
improvement of economic conditions for existing business. An FTZ should also be
a major positive decision point in the recruitment of new and appropriate
industry and business to Mohave County and to encourage discussion on the
planned and systematic growth of the county.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924142" style="text-align: left;"><br /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924142" style="text-align: left;">Regional Positioning - </a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924143">California</a></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">California posted a 2.5 trillion GDP in 2015. If California were a nation state, it would rank behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. California ranks slightly ahead of France and Brazil (World Bank, 2017).</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip0oCHLHzT7SwFjchVpApqGh1687Ec5xfSocSqG2n3jqLed5FIyz8vwSqncUgFl9RBQXKuNHdZljehwwgMVbHQqb_Z4iVi9TyWDBpzmBxEBVH_T16RyKBm9NEvUq8n0-Jh7sHm5TejX_8/s1600/CLO+GDP+15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="549" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip0oCHLHzT7SwFjchVpApqGh1687Ec5xfSocSqG2n3jqLed5FIyz8vwSqncUgFl9RBQXKuNHdZljehwwgMVbHQqb_Z4iVi9TyWDBpzmBxEBVH_T16RyKBm9NEvUq8n0-Jh7sHm5TejX_8/s400/CLO+GDP+15.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924144">California Sectors</a></h4>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
Three important sectors make up 29% California’s GDP,
including transportation, trade, utilities, manufacturing, agriculture, and
mining. Accordingly, the Mohave County region is proximal to approximately 725
billion GDP of highly targetable trade, and those three segments would still
rank in the top 20 global economies, surpassing the entire GDP of Switzerland
and Saudi Arabia.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
</span>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #1f3763; font-family: "Calibri Light",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 127;"> </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924145">West Coast Ports</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
West coast ports transit large scale rail traffic to the KC Smartport
from where 85% of the US domestic population may be reached in two days. Kingman
is one day (16 hours or less) from the West Coast ports and offers access to
Las Vegas, Phoenix, Albuquerque, El Paso, and Mexico City, the Port of Lazaro
Cardenas, and Veracruz. Port traffic on the west coast is dominated by Los
Angeles. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924146">Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Port of Los Angeles (POLA) is America’s largest, with
the Port of Long Beach (POLB) in second place. Combined, they handle about 16
million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), almost three times the size of New
York. This trade growth is fueled by China and Pan Asian trade routes.<o:p></o:p></div>
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.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924147">CANAMEX Corridor</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The compilation of evaluation data for designation of the CANAMEX
corridor through the Maricopa region is the Arizona Department of
Transportation (AZDOT) report that solidifies the route proposed and accepted
by the Maricopa Association of Governments. The map, shown here, delineates the
route of the CANAMEX corridor and ties through Highway 40 in Kingman. Investments made to
accommodate growing truck traffic on the CANAMEX Corridor align with known
truck traffic patterns and correlate with warehouse densities in metropolitan
zones. </div>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924148">Sun Corridor</a></h4>
<div>
Moving trade across the CANAMEX corridor is part of the
equation. Undertaking an industry led stakeholder identification of key
synergies to be captured by the greater Kingman Region will provide the basis
for an analysis of job creation potential and weight that with labor rate
potential in order to capture as many jobs as possible and amplify the wage
base.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The State of Arizona recognizes the importance of
inter-municipal and inter-organizational collaboration. It requires
partnerships to move cargo from a point of entry on Arizona’s border, to or
through the state. These partnerships range the various modes of transportation
while the corridor reflects an opportunity to connect Mohave County to the
emerging super-corridor, a.k.a. the Sun Corridor.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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The Joint Planning Advisory Council has a shared vision to
jointly coordinate planning efforts and carries the consent of the Maricopa
Association of Governments, Pima Association of Governments, the Central
Arizona Governments, and the Sun Corridor Metropolitan Planning Organization<w:sdt citation="t" id="332723910"><!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span> CITATION Joi17 \l 1033 <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Joint
Planning Advisory Council, 2017)<!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
</span>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924149">Proximity to the Auto Industry in Mexico</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Proximity to Mexico offers some prospect to capture part of an
17 billion plastic resin supply chain<w:sdt citation="t" id="-534659520"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span> CITATION Exp17 \l 1033 <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Export.gov, 2017)<!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. Due to the
considerable number of automobile manufacturers in Mexico, the market for
specialized plastic feedstock is accelerating, this may be immensely impacted
by the expansion of commercialized 3D printing, which requires a specialized
feedstock. The market for 3D printing feedstock is expected to meet or surpass
the amalgamated plastic resin export market within five years.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924150">Market Risk</a></h4>
<h2>
<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kingman is on the BNSF Class 1 rail line moves domestic
traffic to the KC Smart Port. Kingman offers midpoint value and regional
highway access to domestic markets of Phoenix and Las Vegas, it also connects
to El Paso, thus able to connect to Mexico’s automobile production corridor
while boasting Atlantic and Pacific access through bidirectional connectivity
to the ports of Veracruz and Lazaro Cardenas. <br /><br /><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Assumption of political risk is assigned to the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) being renegotiated and/or terminated
during the proximal three-year horizon is low as confirmed by the Executive
Office of the President through the U.S. Trade Representative Office as a
releast of NAFTA negotiating objectives<w:sdt citation="t" id="-1506511455"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span> CITATION Exe17 \l 1033 <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Executive Office of the
President, 2017)<!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924151"><br /></a></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924151">Strategic Planning - </a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924152">Overview</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given the strategic location of Kingman and the nexus of
rail, air, and highway, it seems like it would be wise to examine certain
industry sectors to determine if they are candidates for Kingman served
markets. These industries compromise the initial research required to formulate
a solid and credible economic development plan that leverages the Kingman
advantages.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924153"><br /></a></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924153">The Example of Plastic Resin and 3D Printing with
Polyamide Feedstock</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of the current market segmentation, plastic resin was
selected for a brief scan of data and market opportunity relative to the
geophysical positioning of Kingman. This was done due to major export and
import points relative to BNSF class 1 rail and intra-rail connectivity
providing a supply chain corridor from Joffre and Los Angeles to Mexico City.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5R7zbgkisjwq3S0pgPrbn8w4S3h6fQcmFC6CDEwHOgqqYE-0JzFusTIpFVmg_QtIurCgCCvtzmazP3uHOfBExcGWFbEJlPl_qvRfZbr5Zg1bf7_t5mDd_mmq9n4Apzqt28jLwsv8L2gs/s1600/bnsf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="904" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5R7zbgkisjwq3S0pgPrbn8w4S3h6fQcmFC6CDEwHOgqqYE-0JzFusTIpFVmg_QtIurCgCCvtzmazP3uHOfBExcGWFbEJlPl_qvRfZbr5Zg1bf7_t5mDd_mmq9n4Apzqt28jLwsv8L2gs/s320/bnsf.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
U.S. exportation of plastic resin to Mexico represents a 17-billion-dollar
export market. Mexico is also the largest export destination for U.S. Plastic
and Rubber Equipment, Tools, Dies, Jigs, and Industrial Molds. It is also the
fifteenth largest destination for U.S. Additive Manufacturing equipment. More
importantly, Mexico is expected to see 3D printing feedstock, polyamides,
exceed all other forms of imported resin by the year 2020.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Industry segmentation for the consumption of resin recollects
companies like GM, Ford, Chrysler, and Toyota, but it also features companies
like Fuji Heavy Industries and some of the World’s largest consumers of tech
equipment used for processing and bio-packaging products in the food and
beverage sector. BNSF also switches in El Paso with Ferromex offering
integrated service to Mexico City.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924154">Integration of the FTZ</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Storage sites confer supply chain proximity of plastic
resins with short market lead times, making them ideal for established
corridors such as Los Angeles/Mexico City through Kingman. Trans-shipment of
plastic resin, in addition to regional consumption, provide a customer base
that could leverage economic benefit through FTZ storage and re-exportation
duty free and excise tax free. This could, as an example, apply to Sterlite
Manufacturing using plastic resin originating in Canada for plastic products
exported either within the NAFTA market or external to it, with one way or two-way
taxation benefits being applicable. <o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924155"><br /></a></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924155">Collateral Opportunity Points applicable to FTZ and
international markets</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Other opportunities include materials for construction,
electrical, and agricultural product trans-shipment. Extending the supply chain
includes not only the Pacific Rim countries, but also Canada as a large feedstock
supplier of North American plastic resin feedstock from Southern Alberta’s
Joffre Novachem facility. Trans-shipment through Kingman offers not only tax
exempted status, it also offers currency arbitrage opportunity through contract
forwarding of exchange rates the NAFTA partners.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924156"><br /></a></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924156">Project Management</a></h4>
<h2>
<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Economic development project management must be aligned with
the realities on the ground in addition to the vision and direction of local
and regional governments. These components plus stakeholder groups from
operational segments of the logistics zone and imperative. The physical
proximity of class one rail, air operations, and the CANAMEX Corridor trucking
access creates a trifecta of advantage for Kingman. A seven-step data set for
industry targeting consultations with stakeholders;</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Assessment of Alignment for Economic
Stakeholders</li>
<li>Existing Market Status Analysis & Data
Management</li>
<li>Data Collection, Normalization, and Statistical
Analysis for Rail Cargo</li>
<li>Data Collection, Normalization, and Statistical
Analysis for Truck Cargo</li>
<li>Data Collection, Normalization, and Statistical
Analysis for Air Cargo</li>
<li>Integrated Analysis of Road Rail and Air Data to
define overlap opportunity</li>
<li>Identification of Key Industry Targets</li>
</ul>
<br />
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924159">Regionalization Knowledge Management</a></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Inland Port</li>
<li>Port Regionalization</li>
<li>NAFTA Trucking w CANAMEX export/import</li>
<li>Asia Pacific Truck/Rail/Shipping</li>
<li>Other International Markets</li>
<li>Transshipment</li>
<li>Public Communications</li>
<li>Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ)</li>
<li>U.S. / Mex / Can (customs/douane)</li>
</ul>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924160">Governance</a></h4>
<h3>
<o:p></o:p></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
Port governance is flexible and
may span central government owned entities to fully privately owned and
controlled ports. Typically, port governance in the United States is most often
public in nature. The organizational design in areas with private control in
place and a shifting business environment quite often benefit from a hybridized
governance structure that reflects the need for a flexible governance structure.
These could involve a combination of private industry leaders from stakeholder
industries alongside public representatives appointed by regional government
entities and/or public trust institutions. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Rail operators, class 1 and short
line, plus logistics service providers and other private stakeholders would be
likely candidates for inclusion. So long as there is widespread agreement on
the best structure, it is possible to have great flexibility in the design of
any governance changes and/or initiatives.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Toc488924163">References</a></h4>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
<!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>BIBLIOGRAPHY <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]-->Department of Homeland Security. (2017, 07 26). <i>About
Foreign-Trade Zones and Contact Info</i>. Retrieved from U.S. Customs and
Border Protection: https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/ports-entry/cargo-security/cargo-control/foreign-trade-zones/about<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span><w:sdtpr></w:sdtpr></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
Executive Office of the President. (2017, 07 27). <i>USTR
Releases NAFTA Negotiating Objectives</i>. Retrieved from Office of the
United States Trade Representative:
https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2017/july/ustr-releases-nafta-negotiating<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
Export.gov. (2017, 07 27). <i>Mexico Country
Commercial Guide</i>. Retrieved from Mexico - Plastic Materials / Resins:
https://www.export.gov/article?id=Mexico-Plastic-Materials-Resins<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
Joint Planning Advisory Council. (2017, 07 27). <i>A
Planning Partnership for the Arizona Sun Corridor</i>. Retrieved from Joint
Planning Advisory Council: http://www.jpacaz.org<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. (2000, August). <i>CANAMEX
Corridor Study</i>. Retrieved from Maricopa Association of Governments:
https://www.azmag.gov/Documents/pdf/cms.resource/ADOT-MAG_CANAMEX_FinalReport95374.pdf<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
Kingman and Mohave Manufacturing Association.
(2017). <i>Conceptual Overlay.</i> Kingman: Kingman and Mohave Manufacturing
Association.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
World Bank. (2017, 07 26). <i>Gross Domestic Product
2016</i>. Retrieved from Databank - The World Bank:
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf<o:p></o:p></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-32891009241927068742016-07-04T12:35:00.000-07:002016-07-04T12:38:00.287-07:00Independence Day<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4X8x29BzZBQMIiJ870ZVp_qxgIY_ry5L_ashKkUwh1cJThpJndd7yEqZWUE2Km-L1sW5Ci8rCECOI0EblPo1PmCXVYkkrxFFXRmz3IheQ5L4_uthG7Cbcz4csPji6vLNWWQOVLuKFVzw/s1600/545f175498cf5.image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="76" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4X8x29BzZBQMIiJ870ZVp_qxgIY_ry5L_ashKkUwh1cJThpJndd7yEqZWUE2Km-L1sW5Ci8rCECOI0EblPo1PmCXVYkkrxFFXRmz3IheQ5L4_uthG7Cbcz4csPji6vLNWWQOVLuKFVzw/s320/545f175498cf5.image.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Happy 4th of July Lake
Havasu! We just got back from the 4th of July celebration at Cavalry
Baptist's new Sweetwater Campus and it was great! It was our first time in the
new facility and we were stunned. The place was packed, standing room only if
you arrived within ten minutes of show time. Happily, we managed seats because
we did get there a bit early.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPn6SivjCMwLFL_oUP5QBYszGPVYZcb9FYkJWe77c7MeaLUJtFK7oc1VhMF62_COtdPSRs8JT2_DB8XpDGs72bBKNWtMug_850-zN8GHDjWoX1Mu1MWSnzQSdwDhkRUbofER-I5OHmFsM/s1600/images+%25281%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPn6SivjCMwLFL_oUP5QBYszGPVYZcb9FYkJWe77c7MeaLUJtFK7oc1VhMF62_COtdPSRs8JT2_DB8XpDGs72bBKNWtMug_850-zN8GHDjWoX1Mu1MWSnzQSdwDhkRUbofER-I5OHmFsM/s1600/images+%25281%2529.jpg" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Every branch of the armed services was
represented along with our veteran's service organizations. The Marine Corps
League presented colors and honors. The choir was absolutely fantastic and the
solo performers delivered beautiful renditions of patriotic songs including one
of the best renditions of the national anthem I've heard in a very long time. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In addition, the displays of photographs of our many veterans who have served
were on display along with the historic collection of uniforms. It was Americans
coming together in unity and the message was one of loving thy neighbors; Dr.
Garrison did not disappoint.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We came back home and I rigged up the
rotisserie for the bird that has been marinating since yesterday in
anticipation of an afternoon feast followed by fireworks over the lake. We're going
to walk down the street just a tad and then watch them from a bird's eye view
of the bay. We are going to bask in the warmth of liberty.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWNSWWG7y8j5GJva3-wh-PEbbvSvwOEDI2ZF0TmbNhlorl5LErjcxNjGY3230uATxVyfhjJUGGq9MW6OWVFi6Pv3gPs72EKvVt2KNRanxP-jachfUoY5o8Vy_QZUg3HeEVWO3d9KlK7fY/s1600/FireworksOverLakeHavasu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWNSWWG7y8j5GJva3-wh-PEbbvSvwOEDI2ZF0TmbNhlorl5LErjcxNjGY3230uATxVyfhjJUGGq9MW6OWVFi6Pv3gPs72EKvVt2KNRanxP-jachfUoY5o8Vy_QZUg3HeEVWO3d9KlK7fY/s320/FireworksOverLakeHavasu.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Remembering how we became a nation and why…
that truly is important. For two hundred and forty years, we have managed to
survive every ordeal and trial placed upon us as a nation. We've taken our
punches, we've got our battle scars, but we remain the most powerful nation on
Earth; our quality of life is excellent and our liberty is secure. Sure, we can
do better with things like health care and education; we should hold ourselves
to the highest of standards. But all in all, our lives are pretty good.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Nothing divides us that cannot be overcome by that
which binds us together. Today is a glittering reminder of our common roots and
purposes. Today we celebrate our freedom together as one nation.</span></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-90831705084266203032015-03-10T09:14:00.000-07:002015-03-10T09:14:48.310-07:00Leadership in 11 Bullet Points<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Leadership in 11 Bullet Points</span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Know yourself and seek continuous self-improvement </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Be technically and tactically proficient </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Seek responsibility and take responsibility</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Set the example</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Know your people and look out for their welfare</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Keep your people informed</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Ensure the task is understood, supervised, and accomplished</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Develop a sense of responsibility among your people</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Train your people as a team</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Make sound and timely decisions</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Employ your work unit in accordance with its capabilities</span></span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">It's not difficult...</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Understand who you are, your values, priorities, strengths and weaknesses. Self-improvement is a process of sustaining strengths and overcoming weaknesses. Remember that before leaders can lead effectively, they must master the tasks required by the people they lead. Leaders do not avoid responsibility by placing the blame on someone else when things go wrong. Leaders realize that if they expect courage, responsibility, initiative, competence, commitment, and integrity from direct reports, they must demonstrate these characteristics. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Telling your people you care about them has no meaning unless they see you demonstrating it. Your people must understand what you want done, to what standard and by when. Remember that over-supervision causes resentment while under-supervision causes frustration, so find your balance. Delegation indicates trust in people and encourages them to seek responsibility. Develop people by giving them challenges and opportunities. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Train and cross train people until they are confident in the team’s abilities. Leaders must know the factors to consider when deciding how, when, and if to make decisions. Good decisions made at the right time are better than the best decisions made too late</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: 24px;">Leaders must know their work unit’s capabilities and limitations. People gain satisfaction from performing tasks that are reasonable and challenging, but they are frustrated if tasks are too easy, unrealistic or unattainable.</span></span></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-69249734345744924502014-02-14T13:48:00.001-08:002023-01-04T13:53:51.300-08:00Good Neighbours<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BTpNc5L5GqCt95N-prdw4lc1Fbl4HFDB69d2XO4NHwwfTL4mix5YQQ3xakHufWDuHEVf5yykMAY5Iy0TQaOXr2UmZaTsiYnZJyGJj3xPnbIql2s7LT7e3Mz_hdjlt0LsBS7_em-0IXA/s1600/USCan.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BTpNc5L5GqCt95N-prdw4lc1Fbl4HFDB69d2XO4NHwwfTL4mix5YQQ3xakHufWDuHEVf5yykMAY5Iy0TQaOXr2UmZaTsiYnZJyGJj3xPnbIql2s7LT7e3Mz_hdjlt0LsBS7_em-0IXA/s1600/USCan.jpg" /></a></div>
We all know that the rapid expansion of Alberta's economy has greatly accelerated the demand for skilled and highly qualified labour in numerous sectors. Our steel fabrication industry is particularly important for energy industry projects and is one such area where the labour shortage is pressing.<br />
<br />
Port Alberta Director Don Oborowski, CEO of Waiward Steel, joined me on a reciprocal trade mission to lay the foundations for a near-term deal between institutions of higher education in Idaho, Washington, and Alberta in order to develop a pipeline of qualified labour arriving with Alberta based curriculum and apprenticeship training. Preliminary discussions between American and Canadian institutions of advanced education have resulted in this exciting opportunity to put a real dent in a key labour shortage in our region. This opportunity is the result of a trade mission to encourage bilateral corporate investment between Alberta and neighbouring states.<br />
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Between 2007 and 2011, Alberta's exports to Washington and Idaho were worth more than $10 billion. It's wise to have good relations with your biggest business partners. When Mexico voted to allow foreign direct investment into key elements of its energy industry, Alberta's intra-hemispheric trading relationships were set to expand faster than ever. NAFTA countries already account for approximately 25% of global GDP. Our intra-hemispheric economic growth, combined with abundant energy and stabilized hemispheric labour costs, will accelerate "nearshoring activity", meaning a mutually beneficial transfer of the business to a neighbouring country.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU5LFhGqLYQXMDNIzT47Z_UtreZ573soSTp04Ynrz-InuSaN50uoaZccSurZSj_H-Sokmlyc1JrkdU1NSxN8N8QCMp8gSroUHo0UOATy1lt-YfOeMmr02fbNh9gBYXaEEunlq0Ml4kpyQ/s1600/Welder+West+1st.jpg" style="clear: right; display: inline; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU5LFhGqLYQXMDNIzT47Z_UtreZ573soSTp04Ynrz-InuSaN50uoaZccSurZSj_H-Sokmlyc1JrkdU1NSxN8N8QCMp8gSroUHo0UOATy1lt-YfOeMmr02fbNh9gBYXaEEunlq0Ml4kpyQ/s1600/Welder+West+1st.jpg" width="320" /></a>These developments, combined with global economic recovery, will increase our hemispheric manufacturing capacity. Ameliorating labour shortages in our key industries will help our regional economy expand while enabling Albertans to export more products to neighbours and the rest of the world.</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-90671172284949059682013-12-31T10:25:00.001-08:002023-01-04T13:57:14.562-08:00Port of Santa Marta, Colombia<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfkhuZBE-UUSFlv4x5I2YhWbsq2rWXSOiTrKMTJikDBTxOFoBVVmYOzprIjhakw6nEFeD-tpx1_yqe9uWGxlpSK0wsNH4i_6krYFvbvms0iuD5HBSsZGv0EQsqk5Pi83BqlO2EGOSFl4I/s1600/panoramica-puerto-2011-2-bj.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfkhuZBE-UUSFlv4x5I2YhWbsq2rWXSOiTrKMTJikDBTxOFoBVVmYOzprIjhakw6nEFeD-tpx1_yqe9uWGxlpSK0wsNH4i_6krYFvbvms0iuD5HBSsZGv0EQsqk5Pi83BqlO2EGOSFl4I/s400/panoramica-puerto-2011-2-bj.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Port of Santa Marta</td></tr>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;">The growing port of Santa Marta Colombia is a remarkable location for many reasons. First, it sits on the Caribbean Sea at the northern tip of South America just at the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Santa Marta is a natural deep port, sheltered and basking in one of the best climates on the planet, this was the first city founded by the Spanish back in 1525 primarily because of the ideal port location. The port itself has great capacity, it boasts post-Panamax capability with a deepwater approach and > 60-foot draft dockside in a natural seeing with no dredging required. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cartagena is the largest port in Colombia and is Colombia's main oil exporting port. Intermodal traffic is being expanded and is expected to handle between 6 and 7 million TEUs within in two years. Cartagena is home to a variety of private ports including Dole, BASF, Cemex, Dow Chemicals, DuPont, and Reficar SA.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Santa Marta enjoys a different product mix. Santa Marta is a port authority that is a public/private partnership. The largest export from Santa Marta is coal mined from the Sierra Nevada mountain range. In addition, the port accommodates roll-on roll-off (ro-ro), grains, and intermodal cargo. The port is ISO 14001 certified and has the distinction of being the first port outside of the European Union to be officially named an environmentally friendly port or a "green" port. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Considerable capital investment was required to deliver the green port status. Much of that has to do with how coal exports are handled. Structures have been constructed to reduce wind impact, semi lifts have been installed, and hydrochemical dust management systems prevent the escape of coal dust during the unloading process into a closed auger system that delivers coal to the bulk ships. This has preserved the undersea environment surrounding the port which is healthy and thriving. In order to maintain the certification, the port is inspected including the undersea areas.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlXzhYzHl2QZOhwxkKIy5iRtbVEwjK05ceNXhU-I4LUEv_3lfngjAW_S83npJDAQRyaR75vZd1n3Q-McgV_rcadZM3pMmHUnC4lfVGbG7desZl7X78eLOeSj8CoCyST_exLP-vK6aou4/s1600/Closed+Coal+Auger.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlXzhYzHl2QZOhwxkKIy5iRtbVEwjK05ceNXhU-I4LUEv_3lfngjAW_S83npJDAQRyaR75vZd1n3Q-McgV_rcadZM3pMmHUnC4lfVGbG7desZl7X78eLOeSj8CoCyST_exLP-vK6aou4/s1600/Closed+Coal+Auger.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Closed Coal Auger</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-weight: normal;">Santa Marta is blessed with a number of interesting geographical conditions. Storage and shipment of dry grains are facilitated by the wind that sweeps down from the Sierra Nevada mountains out to the sea, this makes it relatively dry compared to many seaports. With nearly 600 plug-in stacks in the intermodal yard, the refrigerated export capacity of Santa is ideal for exporting bananas and various tropical fruits. Fyffes service calls at the port of Santa Marta and serves Antwerp in Belgium and Portsmouth UK and provides fresh bananas to the tables of Europe and the UK in addition to the port ro-ro, dry bulk, grains, and other reefer products. Santa Marta also handles general cargo, typically moving oil and gas drilling equipment along with some dredging equipment.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicNuEnjzpFmGfwqHL2rMGUeomlLvsTNh-xa4sVf7phRp6Kr0z7kJ_cyLSKE_yrFGloZqAIhp8RYgR59_4SCFJbZhV_nsP4C81tO5xbw6U6e4-t9lGbb86CJRXGeiBIWvGgXIuvvHnkdKc/s1600/scale_img.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicNuEnjzpFmGfwqHL2rMGUeomlLvsTNh-xa4sVf7phRp6Kr0z7kJ_cyLSKE_yrFGloZqAIhp8RYgR59_4SCFJbZhV_nsP4C81tO5xbw6U6e4-t9lGbb86CJRXGeiBIWvGgXIuvvHnkdKc/s1600/scale_img.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fyifes - Bananas headed to UK and EU</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Barranquilla is a large port that enjoys freshwater shipping access via the Magdelena River and is home to a large zona franca that confers tax benefits and exclusion from duties until the point of export or after-value add activities. The zona franca of Barranquilla is very large in terms of industrial presence with the most important Colombian companies holding a presence in this particular port due the large zona franca. Santa Marta also has a zona franca, mostly utilized by ro-ro traffic.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWXfPcSxueZ6xBSLJyZVWnzeRHufdrtd2bpIe5X35GzK2_7ohL_dvgJtOCx3efoXbZToA_qaIO4OZCjAm2yZbO2SEXSISPR9l03gwVja5hlFTaeDlmbV0r7jPBGQsm4w19OMHSVzEtwd4/s1600/santamarta153vh.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWXfPcSxueZ6xBSLJyZVWnzeRHufdrtd2bpIe5X35GzK2_7ohL_dvgJtOCx3efoXbZToA_qaIO4OZCjAm2yZbO2SEXSISPR9l03gwVja5hlFTaeDlmbV0r7jPBGQsm4w19OMHSVzEtwd4/s320/santamarta153vh.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ro-Ro Load to Zona Franca</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-weight: normal;">What's next? It occurs to me that Colombia invested heavily in road networks prior to the strong emergence of intermodal traffic. That road infrastructure investment resulted in moving a lot of ocean-going exports not tied to a particular area of production, like coal, and shifted it to the Pacific port of Buenaventura. After driving through the mountains of Colombia, it occurs to me that the value of lost time due to traffic congestion creates a negative impact on gross domestic product data, social impacts, and lost productivity directly resulting from traffic congestion throughout the national highway system. These matters are obviously compounded by environmental damage.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDQ03fqZaCbAkYGMY-HhamPdQ44FHxR5KiMx6wn5XSRpbLFzfdhnj_6oiM4HvSQ1i3n79MaxppI76z64XKupyRTe0vC0g6zny3BLCjNgqblIoVjEpeN6Pz9qz_LZBKxhi-o1meapiQss/s1600/Santa-Marta-Port-600x338.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDQ03fqZaCbAkYGMY-HhamPdQ44FHxR5KiMx6wn5XSRpbLFzfdhnj_6oiM4HvSQ1i3n79MaxppI76z64XKupyRTe0vC0g6zny3BLCjNgqblIoVjEpeN6Pz9qz_LZBKxhi-o1meapiQss/s320/Santa-Marta-Port-600x338.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Port of Santa Marta from the beach</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-weight: normal;">Rail in Colombia is not extensive and the major population centers are not well interconnected. The wildcard in this is China's appetite for coal, and Colombia is one of the largest producers in the World. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-weight: normal;">China is considering investing in a rail line between the Port of Buenaventura and Cartegena. This would be a rail line that could compete with the Panama Canal in some respects. If a rail line between Cartagena and Santa Marta is built, there would be intermodal connectivity between Bogota, Medellin, Santa Marta, Cartagena, and Buenaventura. Such a rail line would start transnational access with over 10 million TEUs in a post-panamax environment while hosting a market space of over 15 million for imported TEU traffic. Arguably, the easiest way to capitalize on Colombia's port infrastructure is to focus on P3 development of rail lines to link Buenaventura with Cartagena and Santa Marta to connect petroleum, dry bulk, ro-ro, grain, and intermodal traffic with major metropolitan areas</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">.</span><br />
</h4>
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-20177817463515176992013-12-03T19:53:00.003-08:002023-01-04T13:59:57.024-08:00¡Si! - The Mexican Senate and Energy Reforms in Mexico!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxh29ArR56e1fnujhL_2kn0d4OS0JSZ90l_iyjV7VVPgx0pMsI_a_eA_Pnhfgx1DCZLSiQCz2Kw6sw_LAb6pYaV2CtPFfQ8sxNalJfiQxD3YUA2Eync2CiyfGTgdtTh8blSV3fotBBtus/s1600/Pemex+in+Campeche.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxh29ArR56e1fnujhL_2kn0d4OS0JSZ90l_iyjV7VVPgx0pMsI_a_eA_Pnhfgx1DCZLSiQCz2Kw6sw_LAb6pYaV2CtPFfQ8sxNalJfiQxD3YUA2Eync2CiyfGTgdtTh8blSV3fotBBtus/s400/Pemex+in+Campeche.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">sourcefile: PEMEX</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Mexican government is currently engaged in a debate on ideology, and the winners and losers in this debate have a lot at stake. From the outside looking in, it's evident that Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) has operated without the benefit of private efficiency. To compare PEMEX with Statoil, they both drive approximately the same sales figures, but PEMEX delivers these sales with 153,000 personnel compared to Statoil's 23,000. While this is just a quick comparison of an employee to sales, it underscores the well-known issues of state-run oil companies in general... they're not the most efficient entities around. <br />
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PEMEX has been boosting exploration budgets significantly since 2006 without a corresponding boost in production, in fact, the numbers have been deteriorating. The larger picture, for our Mexican cousins, is the evolution of Mexico as a market with a rapidly advancing skilled workforce strategically placed with new land bridges connecting Atlantic and Pacific shipping lanes through powerhouse ports like Lázaro Cárdenas and Veracruz. <br />
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Mexico is growing quickly and Mexico needs to pay for infrastructure to underpin a rapidly growing economy. The trend to on-shore is gaining momentum and I see very bright days ahead for North American manufacturing. Mexico's manufacturing sector is gaining steam and Nissan's CEO recently announced that Mexico would soon overtake Japan as an export base for Nissan vehicles. The trade growth of Mexico has seen investments in rail, roads, and inland port infrastructure to support the rapidly growing economy. A fine example that defines both the economic growth and global integration of Mexico is its container traffic growth. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYcPq4VvwDxVY4jorafvSnzny8_EOA0Y9Ap3lzsfTE2vnzojkTDje58Gk4s6RkZgstcIht9EJRY54OX6OW3cumQ5IW9PiFN3ke4z-REFm5vlAG6_gfxL6zCID3TUPzZxQin2PNpUoiILQ/s1600/Lazaro+Cardenas.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYcPq4VvwDxVY4jorafvSnzny8_EOA0Y9Ap3lzsfTE2vnzojkTDje58Gk4s6RkZgstcIht9EJRY54OX6OW3cumQ5IW9PiFN3ke4z-REFm5vlAG6_gfxL6zCID3TUPzZxQin2PNpUoiILQ/s400/Lazaro+Cardenas.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Port of L<span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">á</span></span>zaro C<span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">á</span></span>rdenas</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Mexican container traffic, at the port of Lazaro Cardenas alone, handled about 43,000 twenty-foot equivalents (TEUs) in 2004 and expanded to 270,000 TEUs by 2007, a 527% increase in three years. In 2012, five years later, it handled 1.24 million TEUs, a 359% increase, and has a capacity of 2.2 million TEUs annually, an expansion likely to be reached in a few years' time. The expansion was driven by the investment of Hong Kong's Hutchison Port Holdings Ltd. and the expansion created berths and channels that allowed Lázaro Cárdenas able to receive container vessels up to 12,500 TEUs. The expansion of Mexican port TEU capacity has been largely driven by these investments. Here's a comparison of the growth compared to Canadian TEU growth since the turn of the century. It's obvious that Mexico is growing its capacity at a faster clip than Canada. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCt5YMEgv-kW9JzQMmCHC5GIcaxH5OxjO0lQoq4ad-4VJ9y1uIZW_OVmqzVTbpBnjZ2O1iUPJZQJ050BGU4FlrnSXKKKlRcCh_gDdWxDM7Ih122cpymTYS0IjaK4CG4H4hBD3eh9V6qtE/s1600/CANMEX+TEU+desde+2000.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCt5YMEgv-kW9JzQMmCHC5GIcaxH5OxjO0lQoq4ad-4VJ9y1uIZW_OVmqzVTbpBnjZ2O1iUPJZQJ050BGU4FlrnSXKKKlRcCh_gDdWxDM7Ih122cpymTYS0IjaK4CG4H4hBD3eh9V6qtE/s400/CANMEX+TEU+desde+2000.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mexican & Canadian TEU Growth 2000 - 2011<br />
source: Port Alberta</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
None of this should come as a surprise as the port has direct rail connections to inland ports that service Mexico City's greater market, which boasts in excess of 20 million people. The inland port initiative of Mexico has resulted in tremendous connections to the entire North American marketplace through rail connections and inland ports like the Guanajuato Interior Port (<a href="http://puertointerior.com.mx/">Puerto Interior Guanajuato</a>). The Guanajuato inland port, a.k.a. GTO, is an example of what a well-thought-out inland port can become for a region and an entire nation. I have noticed the design, location, and relative advantages of GTO capture the infrastructure that parallels numerous other inland ports, including the advantages proposed by Port Alberta... but that's another story for another day.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcKlQURo1VsARxJxOGsy2cva71-aSdjunJxko9RgCrex87WM5HkVfq7Y1z5Et8Ta6zlNZ0MDQkstpOGwkEuzAgl_IzesV-o4xz5LtbFr5vG5AkZvgvk8paVbs8YfE8pb3TteSgB3D9900/s1600/GTO.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcKlQURo1VsARxJxOGsy2cva71-aSdjunJxko9RgCrex87WM5HkVfq7Y1z5Et8Ta6zlNZ0MDQkstpOGwkEuzAgl_IzesV-o4xz5LtbFr5vG5AkZvgvk8paVbs8YfE8pb3TteSgB3D9900/s400/GTO.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Guanajuato Inland Port </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Crossing back to the privatization of Mexico's oil industry, we understand that Mexico requires billions to ramp up production. Large shale plays like Eagle Ford exists in Mexico, but the financial and technological capacity to ramp up production on their side of the Eagle Ford shale play is limited by capital resources. This, of course, is exacerbated by the ever-pressing need to satisfy tremendous infrastructure requirements to support the scope and scale of Mexico's growth.<br />
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The dialogue in Mexico is not related to the ownership, per se, of the petroleum resources themselves, but rather, it is an accommodation that allows private companies to partner with PEMEX, which allows the private partners to declare reserves for the purpose of stock valuation while the citizens of Mexico retain their "ownership" of the actual hydrocarbons. Sounds a bit complicated, but it's not complicated. At the end of the day, the private interests that would invest heavily in Mexican oil are simply looking for a fair deal before they start pumping billions of dollars into Mexican investments. <br />
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I believe the parties can come to a political settlement, but it won't be without some discussions and concerns. To start with, there is a huge legacy where oil is concerned in Mexico. Lázaro Cárdenas, the President who nationalized Mexican oil is considered a political and social reformer and is widely lionized as a hero of the Mexican people. He occupies a very important part of Mexican history, and it is his legacy that is linked with land reform, the rights of industrial workers, unionization rights, and the nationalization of the railway. Perhaps one of the most important legacies of President Cárdenas was the expropriation of equipment and declaration that the petroleum reserves of Mexico were nationalized. Over seventy years later, PEMEX, the state-run Mexican oil company, still stands as a legacy of President Cárdenas.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcAE7I-S6dUQ5vfbMTMCJEGmCJI6-fLYQXlue-QrwSuwwxvH2oJbAdifyBn-PXduG59rLDN4N2dYIEIgEsz3hY2WGvh_9dcwvusTF0ny7vh7T4LREMjXGV8a0qWqaJ6aCuEGvkxzCWuAo/s1600/Lazaro.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcAE7I-S6dUQ5vfbMTMCJEGmCJI6-fLYQXlue-QrwSuwwxvH2oJbAdifyBn-PXduG59rLDN4N2dYIEIgEsz3hY2WGvh_9dcwvusTF0ny7vh7T4LREMjXGV8a0qWqaJ6aCuEGvkxzCWuAo/s400/Lazaro.jpg" width="312" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">President<span style="font-size: x-small;"> L<span style="text-align: left;">ázaro C</span><span style="text-align: left;">árdenas</span></span></td></tr>
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The legacy of President Cárdenas still holds enormous sway in the history of Mexico and is greatly amplified by his own son, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas remains a political force in Mexico and is revered as a senior leader of one of Mexico's major political parties. His voice, and the legacy of his father, will be part of the dialogue that shall come to a vote. That vote shall have a long-term impact on Mexico that can change the face of Mexico's economy, shift an entire hemisphere into high gear, and return manufacturing prowess to the North American continent at precisely the moment when the continent is becoming energy sufficient. In short, the new structure allows the changes PEMEX needs in order to facilitate the expansion of Mexico's vast oil resources and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas is leading the opposition to this reform by calling it a "privatization" of the industry. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8jqZsOmwlvdiR0xT9z5PETZ_K7e7uxXOWMaLiG9qgcmtNG6Qlq3QY_CKtsyDe84O4Jq-K2bVVikv-aU-jiQQ_ukxRjfagvWXJXiPNDG7kwYf7qqat_IwUGhUG1T406wK6Dyk-ZsSkIFM/s1600/CCardenas.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8jqZsOmwlvdiR0xT9z5PETZ_K7e7uxXOWMaLiG9qgcmtNG6Qlq3QY_CKtsyDe84O4Jq-K2bVVikv-aU-jiQQ_ukxRjfagvWXJXiPNDG7kwYf7qqat_IwUGhUG1T406wK6Dyk-ZsSkIFM/s400/CCardenas.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: left;">Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas</span></td></tr>
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The changes may create a more agile oil industry in Mexico, something that could bring great benefit to the country at precisely the correct point in history when it is needed most. It won't be the sweeping "privatization" people think it is... instead, one might characterize it more as a sharing of risk and the ability to partner with external corporations and investors, all while maintaining the purview of government approval for any contracts. In short, the people of Mexico will not lose their control over hydrocarbons under President Nieto's reforms, but what they very well may gain will be summed up in economic growth, jobs, and a strong drawback to a great country that has lost so much intellectual capital over the last few decades as people have emigrated to find their way.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-5LUW18p5l_LCXz5YPz5APRsHdikm85FWG4layhqhqOqe_AcRuW3jETNEPXG67I5W4QsEvJsfTVmKYZtE9-UHHTmMhHRyC0hhnS0FYPVuGkIGFNKS6Kp_arnYuy5IjkRHqVhPeOkzSZs/s1600/Pleno-del-Senado-debate-reforma-pol-1875227.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-5LUW18p5l_LCXz5YPz5APRsHdikm85FWG4layhqhqOqe_AcRuW3jETNEPXG67I5W4QsEvJsfTVmKYZtE9-UHHTmMhHRyC0hhnS0FYPVuGkIGFNKS6Kp_arnYuy5IjkRHqVhPeOkzSZs/s400/Pleno-del-Senado-debate-reforma-pol-1875227.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Senate of Mexico</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If Mexico enacts these reforms, they may unwittingly encounter a different problem altogether... there could be a reversal of immigration issues on the U.S. / Mexican border as Americans seek to improve their ability to earn a decent living, have great weather, and enjoy all the richness of the amazingly beautiful Mexican culture. Unfortunately for those Americans, they're likely to have to battle to get into Mexico once the race is on and the exploration starts to ramp up in Mexico's Eagle Ford shale and offshore in the Gulf. Mexicans should keep in mind that if their citizen is undocumented in the United States, they are documented in Mexico and they'll be bringing back new skills, new jobs, the English language skills, and a rich appetite to earn good wages and live at home with families they left behind. <br />
The Mexican oil and economic boom I sense could be right around the corner. Before Christmas, Mexicans should know the type of reform their President will sign. <br />
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If there is any predictability in the stock markets, the Mexican Peso was up today almost 1% as we move into the decision time frame. But even if the decision to reform the energy sector emerges and is signed by the President, the Mexican Senate was given 1.7 million signatures, a threshold dictated by the Mexican Constitution that would call for 2% of signatures of registered voters to be required in order to bring public consultation. And just as the roll call was being taken on the debate, I lost my feed from the Senate that was streaming beautifully from the Canal de Congreso. I thought the debate was very thoughtful, there was a minimum of emotion, and the leaders of the great nation are debating some of the most critical legislation I have ever, in my entire life, witnessed in the history of Mexico. And as much as I would love to stay until the very end of the session... actually, they're voting now. I'll stay. If it's a yes vote, then the title of the article will be Si! And I'm pleased to note that a few minutes ago, the legislation to reform elections, the main "political deal" that will allow energy reform to go forward, was passed by a vote of 106-15. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcWU66JROtQ3XLpk9M-qWF20kb63maWjQwqyjTGuukXRPhSlb3LfQ_WGd-JL9voCcCgJsATCgr0As-K8H8sETetXlIFP4Uin7XXpv0bf0C8RQC58P2TsjVoqwGfI_mY9gfjV9r-qpclgs/s1600/Mexican+Protests+on+Privitization.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcWU66JROtQ3XLpk9M-qWF20kb63maWjQwqyjTGuukXRPhSlb3LfQ_WGd-JL9voCcCgJsATCgr0As-K8H8sETetXlIFP4Uin7XXpv0bf0C8RQC58P2TsjVoqwGfI_mY9gfjV9r-qpclgs/s400/Mexican+Protests+on+Privitization.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Citizens protest the reforms<br />
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</tbody></table>
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-31950402067477893862013-11-09T21:47:00.003-08:002023-01-04T14:17:48.573-08:00Alaska to Alberta : Rails to Resources<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">As I sit at my computer this
morning going through some tweets, I see the former U.S. Senator and
Governor of the Great State of Alaska, Mr. Frank Murkowski, posted an
article about the great opportunity for Alaska and Alberta and Canada. The article is called "<a href="http://www.newsminer.com/opinion/community_perspectives/canada-s-oil-is-alaska-s-opportunity/article_ac3f8ba0-491e-11e3-a631-0019bb30f31a.html?TNNoMobile">Canada's oil is Alaska's opportunity</a>. Franks is, of course, absolutely correct that
Alberta’s oil does represent a great opportunity for Alaska and vice-versa. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br /></span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">I met with Frank and some other political and
business leaders at the Arctic Imperative Summit in Anchorage back in the
summer of 2012. One of the ideas that
were placed on the table was running a pipeline up the MacKenzie valley and
turning left to cross the Yukon and link up with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline
System (TAPS). Another idea is for a
rail connection, a direct link from Alaska to Alberta. I think the rail link is very shrewd.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">3 Amigos<br />
Former U.S. Senator & Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski in the center</td></tr>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">When Frank was the Governor, his
vision and that of others, led him to work on a study called “<a href="http://economics.gov.yk.ca/RailStudy/Summary%20Report.pdf">Rails to Resources</a>” that
suggested, years in advance of where we are today, that rail connectivity could
provide both a connection for Alaska to the lower 48 and it could provide a
bi-directional corridor for the flow of goods and services. Wind the clock forward a few years and here
we are today looking at former Governor Murkowski’s vision and wondering why we
didn't see this sooner or do it sooner.
Alaska holds tremendous potential for Alberta insomuch as it is a
natural port of exit for our crude, but with rail, it would create a cost-effective rail corridor that could be leveraged for a lot more than just oil.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br /></span><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">At peak output, TAPS flowed more
than 2 million barrels of oil a day from the North Slope to the port of Valdez,
this peak occurred around 1990.
Since then, there has been a steady decline. The pipeline also incurs other issues with
declining flow, but the available capacity in TAPS is estimated to be 1.4
million barrels of oil a day. When TAPS
falls below 600 barrels of throughput a day, it becomes necessary to mitigate
the slower flow of oil and prevent ice formation issues with heat and
insulation mitigation methods, below 500 barrels a day will require additional
mitigation and when it falls below 400, additional mitigation measures will
need to be developed.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="line-height: 107%;">The Senator and Governor take another point of view that is interesting;
such a project would create a direct rail link from Alaska to Alberta and the rest of the North American continent. Easements exist from Fort McMurray to Peace
River, but the really critical part is that all the first nations who would
need to be part of an agreement have signed letters of support, even the Assembly of First Nations has signed. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Rail has certain appeals that differ from a pipeline, the infrastructure may be used to ship cargo of other types and even
tourists. I’ve always thought that despite
the greater greenhouse gas emissions from rail-shipped crude and the slightly
higher transportation costs, there will come a day when other forms of energy
displace oil. It could be a paradigm
shift, there could be successful fast ignition fusion or any number of emerging
energy research possibilities in conjunction with existing renewable
technologies. Likely, it will wind up
being a matrix of solutions, but a pipeline is unlikely to be required for
whatever the solution set is. Whatever happens, we do know that tight shale plays are changing the economics of oil, in some ways that are to the advantage of Alberta, and in some ways it is a disadvantage.</span></span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16px;">Most people hear the term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and we think that's what a producer gets for a barrel of oil... not exactly. There are many different types of crude oil. We produce a lot of heavy oil in the oilsands and it requires special equipment to change it from the crude oil we produce into refined petroleum products, whatever they are. Like any system of trade, there are places in the supply chain where oil is delivered, many of us have heard of "Henry Hub" which is one of those places where oil is delivered. There are different areas in the United States where oil goes to be turned into refined products, and during World War II, the U.S. Government had a Petroleum Administration for War that established five districts to ration gasoline. These areas are called Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD)</span><span style="color: #333333; line-height: 15.5903px;">.</span></span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Pricing is derived from where the oil is being delivered and, of course, when it arrives at the destination in one of the PADDs where it is going to be refined, it goes into storage. A price is paid based on supply and demand at that site. In other words, if there is a large capacity for refining sour (meaning high sulfur content) or heavy oil, the refinery will want to have that kind of oil... it requires a coker or hydrocracker, fancy words for special technology that costs a lot to install, maintain and operate. Because it costs more than the equipment used to refine sweet light oil (WTI), there is a higher cost associated with the refining process. In turn, the refinery has to account for that cost and the producer receives a lower price, assuming there are no imbalances in supply and demand, which also impacts price like any other commodity.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">But there is an issue with supply and demand, and it's growing. In the Gulf States, there is a capacity for heavy oil that has been supplied by areas like Canada with our oilsands, Venezuela oilsands product, or Mexican Maya heavy. The Gulf States these days, however, are awash in light crude oil from the tight shale plays in Texas, the most notable being the Eagle Ford play. So much light crude is coming on the market that there is expected to be a supply imbalance within two years at the rate of new products being brought online. That means there will be more of the light crude than refiners can handle and their heavy oil capacity will remain underutilized unless Canadian heavy oil can be delivered.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">This is a figure that shows the expected growth of different types of oils in the five PADD areas of the United States. After all that, it's important to realize that the pricing Alberta producers receive depends on the type of oil they sell, where they deliver it, and the supply/demand conditions that exist at the point where the oil is going. All of this means basically, in a nutshell, two things. First, our heavy oil is selling way below the price of WTI, so when you hear 96 or 100 dollars a barrel, that's not what we're really getting, it can be 20 or 30 (and even more) dollars a barrel discounted. That's a bad thing for our producers and for the government that derives a lot of revenue from the sale of oil. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">There is a good story though, it's not all one-sided. As the Texas oil shale plays and plays nearby start to deliver more and more light crude, they may arrive at an imbalance within a few years' time if the added production continues at current trajectories. Less consumption due to greater fuel efficiency, oil replacement strategies, and a greater supply will eventually create a supply/demand imbalance such that the United States may need to actually think about exporting light crude. The U.S. appetite for heavy and high sulfur oil will remain because that's not the kind of oil they produce. This appetite has quantifiable limits in each PADD because of refinery capacity and types of refineries. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">It's safe to say that Canadian heavy will continue to be consumed primarily in PADD II because that's where the refineries are that have significant capacity to deal with this kind of oil. It may also be delivered via Keystone to Texas where it would compete with Mexican Maya heavy. But the largest and most equitable market for Canadian heavy is the World market which cannot be accessed without access to the ocean. Because of the price discounts our producers have to take, the Province of Alberta has been losing billions of dollars every year. Not a few million, not tens of millions, but billions in royalty revenue that the Government of Alberta simply does not receive due to this discount.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Alaska literally needs to have oil in its pipeline TAPS in order to prevent it from requiring mitigation to allow the lower production to flow. Alberta needs to stop watching billions of dollars escape our treasury because we have no other customer except the United States. Our good friends in Alaska are willing to work with us and so are the First Nations between our heavy oil and the Pacific ocean. There is nobody standing in our way along that corridor, it already has a deepwater tanker facility plus storage, and there is nothing to do but build a railroad that would connect Alaska to Alberta. Alberta would benefit to the tune of billions of dollars a year and Alaska would benefit financially as well plus there would be a rail connection that meets up with the shortest trans pacific trading shipping route. This means cargo can be part of the equation as well, allowing all kinds of products to move via rail between Alaska and anywhere on the North American continent. There is no doubt the State of Alaska and the Government of the Yukon and the First Nations will work with us. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Our Government of Alberta has funded a G7G study driven by the VanHorne Institute that will determine if it is viable and economically sound to establish such a rail corridor. I have news... the answer is not only yes, but it is yes, and as fast as we can, please. I am not prepared to wait years to hear results... every several billion dollars we lose because we can't take decisive action is a crime against our nation and our children yet to come. We are condemning them to far less than we could give them. I know some will argue that we should produce no oil at all... and they will get in their car and drive to the airport to board a plane to fly to a conference to learn about alternative energy. They will consume products made from petroleum and think nothing of it, just as they will power their computers and lights with coal-fired electricity... because they do not realize that we must pay for a transition to new clean energy. How will we do that? Please answer me because I cannot see a clear answer unless the World is prepared to go with nuclear power. I don't think they are.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Proposed Rail Line to connect to TAPS and Alaska<br />
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Last week a train left China for Europe... it carried <a href="http://www.worldfinance.com/infrastructure-investment/project-management/high-speed-rail-the-future-of-freight">freight cargo</a>. I think there's room to think outside the box. I have said on a number of occasions that one day there will come a paradigm shift, and we will not have to use hydrocarbons for energy. Until that day arrives, doesn't it make sense for us to look for the most fuel-efficient ways to move people, cargo, and yes... even energy? Rail infrastructure has been lost in North America, and now we are building it back. A good friend who is a railroader said that "once you give up a line, you won't get it back", and he is right. I remember seeing the old railroad tracks when I was a kid, you could find spikes and remnants of the wood here and there. We used to go play there and make our forts out on "the old railroad tracks". Well here's a chance for us to build a new railroad that would create not only billions of dollars of wealth that we could use to pay it out quickly, but we could also pile money into clean renewable energy research and have a rail line capable of moving anything from across North America to the closes deepwater port on our continent to Asia. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Just the strategic benefit of having that rail in place is more than enough for me to think that ought to be a national priority. Sure, I'd look at building a pipeline too, but I'd much rather have a rail line on that route. Initially, we all talked about a pipeline... but now that I'm very keenly interested in all things transportation, I can see the clear and distinct advantage of a rail connection from the lower 48 through Alberta and into the Yukon and Alaska. </span></div>
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Train from Zhengzhou to Hamburg</div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">I believe that a rail connection solves about 4 million barrels a day worth of oil export capacity, and neatly bypasses the opposition in British Columbia, although that seems to be fading fast as oil by rail starts shaping up to move in every other direction, and it also creates a strategic asset that a pipeline does not. I advocate for both, but at the end of the day, I'd much rather take a high-speed train from Edmonton to Anchorage than fly from Edmonton to Seattle and up to Anchorage. I love Alaska, that's where all my halibut comes from and where some very dear friends live. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">I just don't think it's much of a choice really. How in the heck am I going to get to Alaska on one of these pipelines? But rail... well that's a very different story. It's time for us to unlock our wealth and put it to good use. Why not open our Arctic up to rail and give the Yukon and Alaska a great ride in the process? It won't take long before people figure out that it's not going to be just for oil, there will be tourists and cargo. The economic boom will completely invigorate the far northern communities in Canada and it will put a jolt of economic boom into Alaska. I think that's almost a no-brainer... but I'll wait to see the economics. That said, somehow I think it all comes back to good old-fashioned common sense. My friend Frank has plenty of it. The brightest economists from the Yukon and Alaskan governments thought this was a good idea without the oil money on the table... but with it. I'd be willing to bet my house on this one.</span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Oh, and yes I did get to know Alaska's Lieutenant Governor Meade Treadwell and I can tell you that he is a great guy, easy to get along with, and I think that he is emblematic of the great people of Alaska... he's the kind of person you can have a straight up honest conversation with. Just the kind of person somebody from Alberta would like to do business with. </span></div>
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<span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">To all my friends in Alaska and the Yukon, I support you and I have been advocating for this for quite some time. Seeing Frank's article this morning enthused me to write about this. I really like big thinkers like Frank and Meade. Come to think of it, every person I have ever met in Alaska has been awesome! Having a direct connection to Alaska would be incredible and profitable.</span></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-7308458180591088072013-10-11T18:31:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:20:16.474-08:00NASCO : North American Strategy for Competitiveness<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The North American Strategy for Competitiveness (<a href="http://nasconetwork.com/index.php" target="_blank">NASCO</a>) is a fascinating organization. The economic trading partnership represents nearly a quarter of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We are blessed with strong connections in terms of land, people, culture, and economy. This was my first time as the newly minted President and CEO of Port Alberta attending the NASCO 2013 conference in the Great State of Texas. I pushed a number of things off my plate to meet with industry and government leaders from across Canada, the United States, and Mexico in San Antonio.</div>
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My thoughts quickly drifted back to a time when I lived only 25 minutes from the Mexican border in Arizona when my home was in the Sonoran desert. We all shared the same desert, the same weather, the same food, and the same culture. There was an international border, but it wasn't difficult for us as we could drive to "la Frontera", grab a parking spot, and just walk across the line. For us, it was like walking across the street. Not much changed except for the number and type of stores set up at the border for the tourists. </div>
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I knew there would be plenty of Mexicans at the conference and looked forward to meeting them and speaking Spanish. One of the first orders of business was to register for the conference. While looking for the registration desk, I was greeted by very nice people from Mexico speaking Spanish. We immediately engaged in conversation and a lady from the State of Michigan joined the group. I grew up near the Windsor/Detroit border, so we had a lot to talk about. Having spent most of my life 15 minutes from the Canadian/US border or the Mexican/US border, I was in my element.</div>
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As we continued to chat, I was graciously escorted into a room with a couple dozen people. We all exchanged business cards and I noticed these people represented their respective governments at a pretty high level. After a quick reference to the event schedule on my iPhone, I realized the seat I occupied was for "invited only" government leaders for the NAFTA countries! Inadvertently, I wound up at the meeting of ministers.</div>
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I thought to myself, “maybe this is meant to be”, after all, I have the heart of a Latino and citizenship of Canada and the United States. My participation and opinions were welcome in the discussion on how the three NAFTA countries might best move forward on a variety of levels. It was a thrill to observe and collaborate with such brilliant international thought leaders instrumental to the fate of the NAFTA region.</div>
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Canada, the United States, and Mexico account for nearly a quarter of the global GDP. That fact, in and of itself, is staggering. The United States imports nearly twice as much oil from Canada as Saudi Arabia. Canada has invested over $230 billion in NAFTA partners and our trading relationship has blossomed to over a trillion dollars. The combined GDP of Canada, the United States, and Mexico were about $19.2 trillion last year. The Government of Canada has been keenly aware of a shifting <a href="http://bit.ly/186kBr5" target="_blank">multi-polar world</a> and what that means for Canadian <a href="http://bit.ly/19LyxDt">trading and competitiveness</a>. </div>
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Mexican reforms seem to be gathering momentum as indicated by considerable capital starting to pivot from Latin American markets into Mexico. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and add-ons seem to be shifting capital from Brazil toward Mexico. Over <a href="http://bloom.bg/186mdku" target="_blank">10 billion in IPOs</a> have been racked up this year to date. While the Asian IPOs have retracted, <a href="http://bit.ly/186lOOZ" target="_blank">North American IPO</a> proceeds have gained. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is considering changes to the Constitution of Mexico, in particular, articles <a href="http://bit.ly/186mC6D" target="_blank">25</a>, <a href="http://bit.ly/186mC6D" target="_blank">27</a>, and <a href="http://bit.ly/186mLqI" target="_blank">28</a> of the Constitution. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: left;">President Enrique Peña Nieto</span></td></tr>
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The potential reforms in Mexico would radically change the Mexican economy and <a href="http://bloom.bg/GUNv2M" target="_blank">shift foreign investment</a> back into high gear. It is thought that Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), the state-run oil company, could ramp up exploration in dwindling oil fields. But the alteration of the Mexican Constitution requires a 2/3 vote, and it is unlikely to pass unless President Nieto's PRI party can secure the support of the conservative PAN party which is not entirely opposed to the idea, but in order to secure their support, they are asking to have <a href="http://reut.rs/186jWWy" target="_blank">electoral reform</a> which would allow a run-off between first and second place candidates in Presidential elections according to Jose Maria Martinez, deputy leader of the PAN in the Senate. </div>
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Over 11,000 trucks move across the border crossing between Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas every day. If you're going to cross the US/Mexican/Canadian border, here's a handy link for real-time data that shows the <a href="http://bit.ly/GUTK6R" target="_blank">best time to cross</a> for passengers and commercials. Between Canada and the United States, over 1.4 million worth of goods and services cross the border from the United States every minute of every day. That's a $710 billion dollar market between the U.S. and Canada alone. It's no wonder the Government of Canada is going to build a <a href="http://bit.ly/186mYKu" target="_blank">new bridge</a> across the Detroit river because it is Canada's largest trade corridor with over 25% of U.S. and Canadian trade.</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New Bridge from Windsor to Detroit - designed by Ted Zoli</td></tr>
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Canada will pick up <a href="http://bit.ly/186mYKu" target="_blank">the tab</a> for the construction of the bridge at several billion dollars (estimated between 3 and 4 billion). That bridge represents what every person from the Detroit / Windsor corridor knows... the trading relationship sends more value in cargo across the Detroit river every day than we trade with many countries all year long. In short, it's the single largest trading corridor in North America and it's growing.</div>
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The bridge in Laredo is also tremendously important too. The Laredo bridge is called the World Trade International Bridge, and it carries about 10,000 (or more) trucks a day delivering cargo between the United States and Mexico. This Laredo bridge spans the Rio Grande. You can check out the bridge cams at this <a href="http://bit.ly/186nw39" target="_blank">link</a>.</div>
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When people start talking about NAFTA, I have a whole new perspective on just how important it is for our three countries. NAFTA matters and the key relationships we have with Mexico, Canada, and the United States are incredibly important to our economies and to our people. Suffice it to say, I've always believed in free trade and I've always felt the relationship between Mexico, Canada, and the United States is enormously important. Between the three countries, we can claim continental energy independence. There are many reasons why the trading relationships of NAFTA are critical to all three countries, but the sheer size and velocity of goods and services are simply unmatched anywhere else.</div>
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Mexico, the United States, and Canada represent about a quarter of the World's GDP, over 14 million jobs depend on this relationship, and it is a 19 trillion dollar market, larger than the European Union and twice the size of China. The message I gave the meeting of the leaders was very simple. The problems for the supply chain and logistics between Mexico, the United States, and Canada began on one particular date, September 11, 2001 a.k.a. 9/11. That's when the borders started to become difficult to negotiate. Only I was able to say that in no uncertain terms. Everybody else had to be restrained in their choice of words because they were high-level political representatives... I was the guy representing the industry and was not bound to the same requirement to dance around the heart of the issue. Naturally, I put it right out there on the table and I think very much to the relief of the government officials present.</div>
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We must leverage our advantages as technological leaders and thought leaders to make make our borders easier to cross for our trade, and we can do it by leveraging technology for more intelligent border systems, cooperating more closely on these matters, and focusing on our ability to leverage these things while approving energy infrastructure, like Keystone, to create a strong energy security policy that benefits all three nations. These recommendations, in a slightly different form, were put forth on my birthday, October 3rd, from the <a href="http://bit.ly/186oP1V" target="_blank">Canadian Council of Chief Executives</a> and addressed to President Obama, President Nieto, and Prime Minister Harper. </div>
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I believe President Nieto is leading a visionary change that will bring increased prosperity to Mexico. The Eagle Ford shale play extends into Mexico and there is so much more. But PEMEX will require the kind of expertise Canadian and U.S. companies can bring to the table in order to unleash the <a href="http://bit.ly/186pdgM" target="_blank">enormous potential</a> of Mexican natural resources. The United States must also consider the importance of completing the Keystone project, which in and of itself does not create a complete solution to the breadth of North American energy security that all of us want, but it will certainly help. And to be clear, the <a href="http://bit.ly/186pBvI" target="_blank">majority of U.S. citizens</a> want Keystone to move forward.</div>
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We recognize that <a href="http://bit.ly/186pTTt" target="_blank">business leaders</a> and the United States <a href="http://usat.ly/186q415" target="_blank">Congress</a> join the majority of the people in their desire to see Keystone move forward. North American energy independence allows us to apply our own technologies and innovation in our marketplace instead of pushing global energy production into the hands of nations where environmental controls are nowhere near our environmental control standards. Democratic stability and decades of harmonious relations across the NAFTA countries support continued policy development that will benefit North America.</div>
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If we apply our technologies and make a genuine attempt to work more closely to harmonize our security and enhance the flow of goods and services across the North American supply chain, we will advance our economies and move forward together.</div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-87911097395374230762013-07-15T00:03:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:21:23.917-08:00The Siberian Methane Burp<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of methane and carboniferous
materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of
materials that have potential to release greenhouse gas emissions that will continue to accelerate
the rate of climate change. The Eastern
Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers approximately 7,000 kilometers with
significant outcroppings of complex ancient ice deposits rich in carboniferous
materials in addition to substantial quantities of shallow </span></span><span style="line-height: 18px;">sub sea</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> permafrost. This exists throughout the
entire Arctic region, but the ESAS is by far the most proliferous area.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic
for longer periods of time, erosion of these shelves increases the release of
these carboniferous materials into the ocean.
Microbial consumption of these materials produces carbon dioxide and
methane. The release of carbon dioxide
and methane vent to the atmosphere.
Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in the form
of methane hydrates trapped in a frozen state beneath the Arctic
tundra. </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with
warming will bring these coastline and sea-based deposits into the mix. Since methane has approximately 20-23 times
greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much more heat, the ramifications
of large-scale emissions of methane into the atmosphere further exacerbate the positive feedback loop effect. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 115%;">Because methane dissipates
relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not have an enormous
impact on overall global average temperatures in and of itself, taken together with
other components in a planetary scale positive feedback loop, the impact could be magnified significantly. </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">If the technology existed to easily capture methane from the
Arctic tundra, the sheer quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the
economic viability of methane production.
Because methane is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an
economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to various
stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position to
benefit from profitable resource development. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 115%;">Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere
would prevent a greenhouse gas some 20+ times more potent than CO</span><sub style="line-height: 115%;">2</sub><span style="line-height: 115%;"> from contributing
its effects to climate change. But the numerous
challenges of getting to the resource and then fielding the technology to
capture it present challenges that may render this option uneconomic. Nevertheless, it's something we continue to ponder and think about... after all, if we're not paying attention to it, we might find out one day we were ignoring a vast source of greenhouse gas.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Could methane be a tipping point greenhouse gas that forces </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">extraordinarily</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> expensive adaptation strategies to be implemented at a greatly accelerated pace? If it does become a tipping point gas, it's safe to bet it could impact climate change faster than most policy analysts would ever be willing to </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">publicly</span></span><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> admit.</span></span><br />
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-62826952092221799092013-06-05T14:35:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:25:01.546-08:00Arctic Climate Change : The Big Melt<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDm4RquwMufbTr4eUiwAfE2rWOP9VLYjjMPZWc1sLQCvyMOTE4pWRk5cFclprpPJnocPYo9AOxoQ4KSmAjamTx62Dky67m6YFoGbR5LjQCXf6n6YpiZCXD6efZqrsC0di2Lg6uDE_0N8/s1600/Sea+Ice+Extent.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDm4RquwMufbTr4eUiwAfE2rWOP9VLYjjMPZWc1sLQCvyMOTE4pWRk5cFclprpPJnocPYo9AOxoQ4KSmAjamTx62Dky67m6YFoGbR5LjQCXf6n6YpiZCXD6efZqrsC0di2Lg6uDE_0N8/s320/Sea+Ice+Extent.png" width="320" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 15.3333px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum</span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Climate change in the Arctic happens faster than anywhere on
the planet, a scientific fact that finds little dispute from any interest
group. For many years, it has been
described as the canary in the coal mine<w:sdt citation="t" id="-811409167"> (Michaels, 2004)</w:sdt>. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As circumpolar leaders and experts met at the Arctic
Imperative Summit in the Summer of 2012, the recession of Arctic ice, a.k.a. the ice melt, had
exceeded 2007 levels <w:sdt citation="t" id="807755446">(NSIDC, 2012)</w:sdt>,
the previous record Arctic sea ice area recorded since 1979.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">While the Arctic shows evidence of global climate change at a
faster rate than other areas, it would present a very attractive subject for
research and study. There is room to
expand the interdisciplinary aspect of the many scientific fields studying
climate change impacts in the high Arctic, but this is offset by the difficulty
and expense of reaching Arctic areas and then conducting research<w:sdt citation="t" id="479045321"><!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span> CITATION Hin05 \l 4105 <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Hinzmon,
2005)<!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />The challenges are real, the Arctic is changing quickly, and
projections of increased economic activity in the Circumpolar World are
inevitable. Recognition of the
consequences of accelerating climate change for Arctic environments will aid
the voices advocating for more research funding on the part of the
Circumpolar World.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Swedish researchers note a generalized loss of cold winters
and cool summers while noting more extreme precipitation events. Their understanding of the rate of climate
change has led them to focus on adaptation strategy. Like many entities, the circumpolar
governments and regional stakeholders are turning more and more energy to the
adaptation process<w:sdt citation="t" id="-2008662653"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span> CITATION Cal10 \l 4105 <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (Callaghan, et al., 2010)<!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. In the eyes of all the circumpolar nations,
the debate as to if the climate is changing is long gone. The conversation is now about how best to
adapt since their part of the planet will be impacted fastest.</span><a href="" name="_Toc356490694"><br /></a></span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="" name="_Toc356490694"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Reduction of Arctic Ice</span></a></h2>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The reduction of Arctic Ice creates a variety of issues and
opportunities. The issue from the
standpoint of ice melting is that polar ice reflects light (and heat). As the ice melts, the dark water surface
absorbs more heat, which creates a faster temperature rise which, in turn, causes
the ice melt to occur at a faster rate.
This kind of feedback system, referred to as a positive feedback loop,
is one of many components that impact global climate change.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Water on top of the ice pack also creates more
rapid heat absorption because it creates a dark area on the ice surface,
absorbing more heat. While melting
Arctic ice does not cause sea levels to rise, much like a melting ice cube in a
glass of water does not cause the level of liquid in the glass to rise; it does
create warmer temperatures which cause other circumpolar ice to melt. As large amounts of land-based ice melt, like
the Greenland Ice Shelf, that does introduce more water into the ocean, which
does raise the sea level. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br />As Arctic ice minimums continue to advance, creating more
dark water, the ramifications impact not only the acceleration of temperature
change, but it also creates young ice areas which require less energy to
melt. The National Snow and Ice Data
Center track daily changes in the Arctic ice cover. The Arctic ice recedes yearly and melts
during the warm months, typically stopping its recession around the end of
September when it becomes cold enough for the ice coverage to begin extending
again. In 2012, the Arctic ice minimum
was found to be at the lowest levels since this data has been tracked by
satellite<w:sdt citation="t" id="1728418582"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span> CITATION Nat12 \l 4105 <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> (NSIDC, 2012)<!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>.</span></span></div>
<a href="" name="_Toc356490695"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></a><h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="" name="_Toc356490695"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Greenland Ice Sheet</span></a></h2>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">The Greenland Ice Sheet is a massive land-based circumpolar
ice deposit. This vast area of ice is
starting to undergo rapid melting cycles.
While this has been noted by scientists for many years, the rapid
acceleration of Greenland’s ice combined with additional </span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">complicating factors, is only
recently emerging as an environmental issue that is starting to command global
interest.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">Unusual
weather patterns noted in 2012 include the U.S. drought, and a sudden
widespread surface melt event impacting the Greenland Ice Sheet. This set of circumstances, known as a heat
dome, occurs when the jet stream patterns keep cooler air to the north which,
in turn, allows warmer air from the Gulf stream to rise up to Greenland. The phenomena this year, in July, caused a
rapid spread of surface melt in Greenland, extending the area from about 40% of
Greenland’s surface to nearly complete coverage over the course of four days.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Typically,
the maximum surface melt area in Greenland during the hottest point of the
summer is around 50%. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The scope of these
phenomena is certainly attention-getting but there is also evidence this may be
part of a cyclical event. While there is
not enough evidence to suggest this predicts an impending catastrophic ice loss
and resultant accelerated rates of sea level rise, it certainly warrants
further investigation and attention.</span></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">If
instability and accelerating melting takes place on the Greenland Ice Sheet and
the Antarctic, the level of sea rise could be far faster than was originally
thought. It seems like scientists
continue to be surprised each year as the rate of change exceeds the predictive
components of their models.</span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">If there is
a tipping point and the largest of the land-based glaciers melt into the ocean,
we would have sea levels that are several meters higher than they are now. Under the most prepared scenario, it is hard
to imagine to what extent such an incident would damage global trading patterns
and to what extent that would impact weather.</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxDfhXcExJTbr7BRaNNOstUGChizpP9GBsDo0F76m1iBFf13L3cMrxgAWGiU6PaX7zjtOrlaB4-kBk6E3V9U9ouut28iX1saZSE0W5tu-w9bl-fmvGexcT2VyzQaCvlmcHsbSroIq8nA/s1600/Greenland+Ice+Sheet+Melt.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxDfhXcExJTbr7BRaNNOstUGChizpP9GBsDo0F76m1iBFf13L3cMrxgAWGiU6PaX7zjtOrlaB4-kBk6E3V9U9ouut28iX1saZSE0W5tu-w9bl-fmvGexcT2VyzQaCvlmcHsbSroIq8nA/s320/Greenland+Ice+Sheet+Melt.png" width="320" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 15.3333px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Greenland Ice Sheet Melt July 2012</span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Satellite Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment satellite was taken between 2002 and 2008; demonstrating that Greenland
has been losing approximately 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year. A large section of the Pederson glacier, some
130 square kilometers, broke off due to the high temperatures, but since this
section was already floating on the ocean, it will not contribute to rising sea
levels. That said, as similar weather
patterns repeat in conjunction with rising average air temperatures, the rate
of melt on land is likely to grow. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj885TerAUPAEnrTZY3IKyn_Vu9y21Z2LcRuIWpHWzTwo4p2SoOUvSyUQZY-RS8VYF0iiA46vOb3QWSVRsix1MeT8tZ1BXueE3MHuxJ2WZoe8sL6_x9udY5azTvepjYI2JFXuZ5eGX4YVI/s1600/Pederson+Glacier.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj885TerAUPAEnrTZY3IKyn_Vu9y21Z2LcRuIWpHWzTwo4p2SoOUvSyUQZY-RS8VYF0iiA46vOb3QWSVRsix1MeT8tZ1BXueE3MHuxJ2WZoe8sL6_x9udY5azTvepjYI2JFXuZ5eGX4YVI/s320/Pederson+Glacier.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">Pederson Glacier Ice Melt</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br />Ice melt rate is also affected by other factors, including
airborne particulates raining out over the ice sheet causing dark spots. Images of these dark spots evoke an interest
in knowing if they are hydrologically isolated from sub-surface water. The dark holes appear to be boreholes. These holes initially absorb solar energy at
a higher rate causing an increase in the rate of melt in the holes.<br /><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWDFP1qU0abDAW-sA7EkzwuORMTOBbPC1ezavgEnwJ74JsA7X96YEdj0YMgRrK6X8E3b0PCkADG2Im2OhNHTsfMaBTYZriLYh1_XZNge1FsNxVq63igoUqY3N_3gkl-vXvGLvGmfYvQQw/s1600/Black+Holes.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWDFP1qU0abDAW-sA7EkzwuORMTOBbPC1ezavgEnwJ74JsA7X96YEdj0YMgRrK6X8E3b0PCkADG2Im2OhNHTsfMaBTYZriLYh1_XZNge1FsNxVq63igoUqY3N_3gkl-vXvGLvGmfYvQQw/s320/Black+Holes.png" width="223" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Black Holes on Greenland Ice Shelf</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">As the holes get deeper, the rate of deepening begins to
rescind as the exposure angle to the sun decreases, and at some point, the rate
of melt equalizes with surrounding ice.
As these holes create a matrix of higher melt points, they become
subject to interrelationships with under-surface fissures and fractures of the
major ice sheets. To the extent these may drain into large ice sheet fractures, the rate of progression to land-based ice and land contact points tends to create an opportunity for ice to
shift and move, probably a lot sooner than it otherwise would have.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Particulates that absorb
heat like black carbon, vanillic acid, and sulfur that fall on the Greenland
ice shelf create the aforementioned dark areas creating boreholes that melt
faster than the surrounding reflective white ice. This functions like drilling holes in the ice
sheet which facilitates gravity-dependent water flow migration towards the
bottom of the sheet, creating subsurface conditions that encourage a more rapid
rate of ice migration towards the sea.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Particulate-driven cryoconite holes that look like boreholes have
also been widely reported by glaciologists, especially those who study the
Greenland ice shelf. It is thought,
based on the chemical composition of the soot that much of it comes from coal-burning plants in Asia; this is based on assumptions of wind conditions and
observable fallout patterns.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Rivers of water are also noted with massive drop-offs into
large crevasse structures. It’s the
combination of rising surface temperatures, and particulate fallout from high-emission industrial output that creates what appears to be a causing
accelerated migration of surface water to the ice bedrock interface</span><w:sdt citation="t" id="-1218967214" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> (Zwally, et al., 2002)</w:sdt><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It may also be presumed these holes contribute integrity
challenges to the ice sheet, probably creating larger areas that break off as
the ice sheet approaches the ocean. Other
chemical compositions suggest some of the soot is due to massive forest fires
in other parts of the globe, another by-product of climate change as large
forested areas undergo significant drought during the summer months, hence
creating ideal conditions for large forest fires.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Ice core samples reveal coal soot particulate content in the
Arctic can be correlated to the maximum effect of the industrialization of the
period from 1906 to 1910 <w:sdt citation="t" id="170377359"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>CITATION Jos07 \l 4105 <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]-->(McConnell, 2007)<!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:
field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt> and note thermal temperature rises
eight times larger than pre-industrialization.
Much of that, by the way, is thought to have derived from the United
States and Canada.</span></span></div>
<div>
<a href="" name="_Toc356490698"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></a></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="" name="_Toc356490698"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ice Core Samples</span></a></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ice core samples, through trapped air pockets, can be
analyzed to reveal carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during previous eras. There is ample evidence that CO<sub>2</sub>
levels in the atmosphere correlate with average mean surface temperatures due
to the heat-trapping ability of the material in the Earth’s atmosphere. The projections of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions
through the remainder of the 21st century are substantial. Even with efforts to mitigate emissions, the
ramifications imply increased temperatures which mean the planet will continue
to shed ice.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPkljGfSTny_RbXb-e5BC0I321Dj7h__BJdhhFODj5kaw-7vsKtq7OAlBPQ084JVia1eozLnen4szBXPU4P6ngnZQd2ZQ-1hyLmm9aZ8jHygcpnQfmmIUuVjOhK2O2JzZZROYUF57VRjw/s1600/Ice+Core+CO2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPkljGfSTny_RbXb-e5BC0I321Dj7h__BJdhhFODj5kaw-7vsKtq7OAlBPQ084JVia1eozLnen4szBXPU4P6ngnZQd2ZQ-1hyLmm9aZ8jHygcpnQfmmIUuVjOhK2O2JzZZROYUF57VRjw/s320/Ice+Core+CO2.png" width="320" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">Ice Core CO</span><sub style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">2</sub><span style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"> Analysis & Predictions</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="" name="_Toc356490699"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and
Methane</span></a></h2>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of Methane and carboniferous
materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of
materials that have the potential to release greenhouse gas emissions that will
accelerate the rate of climate change.
The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers approximately 7,000
kilometers with significant outcroppings of complex ancient ice deposits rich
in carboniferous materials in addition to shallow </span></span><span style="line-height: 18px;">sub-sea</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> permafrost. This exists throughout the entire Arctic
region to some extent, but the ESAS is by far the most proliferous.</span></span></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Zt9wz0FXieWaAtjBIDrTTjWje5800b2rX4VoAFthOtdzmVASzmRzQH1jzgVAZOnXQVkgKu_-mqH22fn7wKq34TOchDRLJsLwY3613MdNDe2u3BZLouDSLyrzLsf8muj_4EP6QH7h-0Y/s1600/Siberian+Arctic+Shelf.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Zt9wz0FXieWaAtjBIDrTTjWje5800b2rX4VoAFthOtdzmVASzmRzQH1jzgVAZOnXQVkgKu_-mqH22fn7wKq34TOchDRLJsLwY3613MdNDe2u3BZLouDSLyrzLsf8muj_4EP6QH7h-0Y/s400/Siberian+Arctic+Shelf.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic
for longer periods of time, erosion of these shelves increases releasing
carboniferous materials into the ocean.
Microbial consumption of these materials produces carbon dioxide and
methane. The release of carbon dioxide
and methane vent to the atmosphere.
Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in the form
of methane hydrates in a frozen state trapped beneath the Arctic tundra.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with
warming will bring these coastline and seafloor deposits into the mix. Since methane has approximately 20-23 times
greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much more heat, the ramifications
of large-scale emissions of methane into the atmosphere further exacerbate the
positive feedback loop. Because methane
dissipates relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not
have an enormous impact on overall global average temperatures </span><w:sdt citation="t" id="-1689436717" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(Kvenvolden, 1988)</w:sdt><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> in and of itself, taken together with
other components of a positive feedback loop, the impact could be magnified.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If the technology existed to easily capture methane from the
Arctic tundra, the sheer quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the
economic viability of methane production.
Because it is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an
economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to the Arctic
and to stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position
to benefit from resource development. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere
would prevent a GHG some 20+ times as potent as CO</span><sub style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">2</sub><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> from
contributing to climate change, but the climate ramifications of getting to the
resource and how it would be combusted would still have an impact, so it would
be at a net cost to the environment, but that net would be somewhat less than
simple emission.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Works Cited</span></h2>
<div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Michaels, P., 2004. The Economist; A canary in the coal mine. [Online] </span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Available at: http://www.economist.com/node/3375415</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[Accessed 19 01 2013]</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">NSIDC, 2012. Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis. [Online] </span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Available at: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[Accessed 02 09 2012]</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Hinzmon, L. D., 2005. Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions. [Online] </span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-005-5352-2?LI=true</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[Accessed 28 12 2012]</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Callaghan, T. V. et al., 2010. A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(14)</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Zwally, H. J. et al., 2002. Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow. Science, pp. 218-222</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">McConnell, J. R. e. a., 2007. 20th-Century Industrial Black Carbon Emissions Altered Arctic Climate Forcing. Science, 317(7 September 2007), pp. 1381-1384</span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Kvenvolden, K. A., 1988. Methane hydrate — A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?. Chemical Geology, 71(1-3), pp. 41-51</span></div>
</div>
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-4213293270906377872013-06-05T01:34:00.000-07:002013-06-05T15:27:48.911-07:00Leadership by the numbers : a compilation of CF best practices modified for corporate application<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<i>Duty is about what we do, a leader’s duty is to serve the mission. Honour is about how we perform our duty. Leaders must perform their duties in accordance
with the civic, legal, and ethical values embraced by our society. . Effective leaders get the job done, look
after their people, think and act in terms of the larger team, anticipate and
adapt to change, and exemplify our ethos in all they do. This is what the organization expects and it is
also what the people whom we serve expect.
Altogether too often, the public is sad to learn their leaders have not
lived up to an ethos of high standards.
Part of our ethos, then, should be to say that we will stand up to be
moral, effective, and genuine leaders.
For it is only through a strong commitment to an ethos our people can be
proud of, that we will be able to provide the characteristics of strong and
capable leaders and give the people what they so rightfully expect.<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
~ General Rick Hillier – Chief of
Defence Staff<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(Taken in part and editorialized by the author)<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></i></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147218">CF Modified Effectiveness
Framework</a></h2>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyhteSqTXG0sIgSgx4XaxaPNSO-Gg8Sg5fzpn3imo-_z6oSfbwpxk8Fm2QDdwxCtYqho6QEo3DP4yzPa-ZITT5W4AlUhT-tX_R94ZF4kKf0wUwyZqndrn2DH9chiDNUC74NBwVKXUdoJM/s1600/Leadership+Framework.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyhteSqTXG0sIgSgx4XaxaPNSO-Gg8Sg5fzpn3imo-_z6oSfbwpxk8Fm2QDdwxCtYqho6QEo3DP4yzPa-ZITT5W4AlUhT-tX_R94ZF4kKf0wUwyZqndrn2DH9chiDNUC74NBwVKXUdoJM/s1600/Leadership+Framework.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h2 style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147218">Effectiveness Framework</a></h2>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0e5coe9g9ppc6s5NagC574SA1Az7Xy_dNVdUMBfCcW869sSnbtns3ybNFKUFECHPfaEcVp330cMRnoicGnK37dB9RafCC2ehTVkXhPe03tcO54BXrObiCmXiPrE3vakBX27hHgn1SHZw/s1600/Two+Ways.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0e5coe9g9ppc6s5NagC574SA1Az7Xy_dNVdUMBfCcW869sSnbtns3ybNFKUFECHPfaEcVp330cMRnoicGnK37dB9RafCC2ehTVkXhPe03tcO54BXrObiCmXiPrE3vakBX27hHgn1SHZw/s320/Two+Ways.PNG" width="226" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h2>
Emanation Paths</h2>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="text-align: justify;">Emanation paths represent
secondary outcomes of the Effectiveness Framework, each of which has a positive
bi-directional connotation for enhanced team growth and increased probability
of success.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147219">Organizational
Success</a><span style="color: windowtext;"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
The collective planning and
action of an organization with operations that span different trades, departments, crafts, and
various necessary functions is paramount. It is necessary to perform
the thousands of myriad tasks that take place to keep the organization functioning smoothly. Typically,
if we are engaging correctly and moving forward as a team, the team success will be there as a result of the collective planning and the actions of
an organization.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147220">Internal Integration</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
The internal operations of the
organization must be well organized, the functions clear, and the reporting of
agreed upon metrics must be established.
The achievement of teamwork and cohesion among the people must fit
together in order to work together effectively.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147221">Member Well Being
and Commitment</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Respect, care, and consideration
are fundamental qualities. By engaging
others with respect and acting to support their professional hopes, goals, and
aspirations we show a sincere commitment from the organization toward the
people. This is a moral obligation that
also happens to be highly practical.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147222">Conduct (ethos)</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Conduct or ethos encompasses values that describe and define organizational conduct. This
behavioral dimension includes the civic values of liberal democracy; values
subsumed by the rule of law; ethical values governing our treatment of others
and the conduct of government operations; and the traditional values of duty,
loyalty, integrity, and courage. The
ethos is the essence of your honor.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147223">The Importance of
Trust</a></h2>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Trust in leadership is positively
related to individual and group performance, persistence in the face of
adversity, the ability to withstand stress, job satisfaction, and commitment to
continued service. One of the most
important parts of the leader’s job is to build and maintain healthy trust
relationships with subordinates, peers, and superiors. Leaders build and
maintain trust through their decisions, actions, and interactions.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Leaders build and maintain trust
through their decisions, actions, and interactions. Leadership qualities exhibited by each leader
of the organization is reflected onto every other leader within the organization. As such it follows that the leaders should,
at a minimum, always exhibit these traits:</div>
<span style="font-size: 7pt; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Demonstrate high levels of proficiency in the
performance of core functions and take advantage of opportunities to enhance professional expertise and competence</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Exercise good judgment in decisions that affect
others and do not expose people to unnecessary physical or emotional risks</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Show trust and confidence in team members by giving them additional authority and involving them in decisions where
circumstances allow</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Demonstrate concern for the well-being of team members,
represent their interests, and ensure they are supported and taken care of by
the organization</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Show consideration and respect for others, treating
teammates fairly, without favor or discrimination</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Focus on the mission, maintaining high standards
as well as honest and open communications</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Lead by example, sharing risks and hardships and
refusing to accept or take special privileges</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Keep your word and be counted on to honor
your obligations</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147224">Distributed
Leadership</a></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Distributed leadership is about
sharing the responsibilities of leadership, vertically and horizontally within
teams and the organization as a whole. Leadership
is an essential role requirement for managers but is not the same thing as management.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Leaders are involved in planning,
problem-solving, decision making, organizing, informing, directing, allocating
and managing resources while developing, coordinating, monitoring, and
controlling the course of those efforts.
The expectation is simple; leaders will not only lead but that they will
lead well. They will always seek to
develop the team around them; they will never seek to be the smartest person in
the room, but rather, they will surround themselves with other strengths and leverage those
strengths, constantly seeking ways to share the leadership role through a
distributed environment based upon a foundation of trust.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147225">Professional</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
A profession is essentially an
exclusive group of people performing a service to society and unified by a
common body of expertise and code of conduct.
The words of a professional cannot be just words on paper or empty
commitments, they must be publicly
visible consistent patterns of behavior. Leaders make the difference.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147226">Leaders Primary Responsibilities</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Build Teamwork and Cohesion</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Professional Competence and Self-Improvement</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Clarify Objectives and Intent</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Solve Problems with Timely Decisions</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Mentor, Educate, and Develop Team Members</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Treat Team Members Fairly</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Respond to Their Concerns</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Represent Team Members' Interests</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Maintain Situational Awareness</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Learn From Those Who Have Experience</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Learn From Experience</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Exemplify the Ethos</span><br />
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147227">Member Well-being
and Commitment</a></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
The primary leader roles
pertaining to the member well-being and commitment dimension of effectiveness are
those of sustainer and developer. In the sustainer role, the leadership team is
responsible for establishing a healthy organizational climate, treating people fairly, and
managing interpersonal conflict. The
leader must also sustain the individual and collective interests of their
people and seek to build
morale wherever possible.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
In the developer role, leaders
foster and recognize achievement, and protect depth and continuity in teams by
cultivating potential replacement leaders. They mentor people in apprenticeship
positions and challenging assignments, and encourage and support subordinate
participation in training, educational, and professional activities over their career
span.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147228">Enhance Situational
Awareness – Explain Events and Decisions</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
The routine and prompt passage of
information contributes to teammates’ situational awareness and their ability
to respond appropriately to a changing situation. Situational awareness is critical to
anticipating future environmental conditions and identify opportunities to
secure organizational advantage. Candidly
explaining events and decisions often reduces tensions created by uncertainty and is critical to maintaining the trust relationship between leaders and led.<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7783662800228466359" name="_Toc358147229">Collective Leadership</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Collective leadership refers to
the combined effects and synergies when leaders at different levels synchronize
their leadership actions to achieve a common purpose. High performing collective leadership occurs
when leadership processes are mutually reinforcing; the result is greater
than the sum of its parts. Leveraging
collective intelligence to establish collective leadership shifts fine
organizations into high performing organizations with stellar performers.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-11237259746246926562013-05-10T02:20:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:29:55.639-08:00Devon Lions Campground<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Preserving the Park</span></span></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">In the last few years, according to the Devon Lions and the Lions
Campground Management, it is estimated that 6 to 8 feet of shoreline has been
lost, in particular, in the area adjacent to the Campground office. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">This, however, has never been actively marked
nor measured for the purposes of quantification.</span><span style="text-align: justify;"> </span></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">Empirically, we are left with areal analysis
to approximate rates of erosion.</span><span style="text-align: justify;"> </span><span style="text-align: justify;">Locals also point out the dogleg area of the roadway, being in
greatest proximity to the river bank, as having significant potential for
negative operational impact to the Devon Lions Campground.</span><span style="text-align: justify;"> </span><span style="text-align: justify;">This is the area widely considered to be of
critical importance.</span></div>
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This area presents a significant concern due to the potential for
interruption of traffic flows and normal operations of the campground. An approximation of distance from
top of bank to nearest roadway construction at the time of this photo was
approximately 6.1 meters (approximately 19.7 feet), it has likely degenerated
to a modest degree since the time of this areal image. A foot inspection with GPS coordinate capture
will establish baseline data starting in 2013.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Given the low average of erosion over the last two years (in
accordance with local knowledge), the timeline for the expected impact of
operations, all else equal, would be some years away. Using the 4-year longitudinal average at a
rate of .7025 feet per year, the declination would be calculated as: (19.7 / .7025
= 28). Enhanced flow level years, when overtopping occurred, are not believed to be included in the four-year comparison. In general, it's safe to say the dogleg road area
isn't likely to wash out this year or even next year, even when adjusting for
shoulder easement and safe foot travel area.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Erosion accelerates by a combination of volume and rate of the flow
in the river. In other words, the amount
of water and how fast it flows has a powerful impact on the erosion rate. Overtopping the bank, i.e. "the big
flood", is a rare event and unlikely to cause substantial damage due to
the overtopping itself. Instead, it is the
power of the river and the rate of river flow sustained during overtopping
events that would have the most powerful impact on erosion. This, of course, is why precipitation levels
and dam release are central to a root cause analysis. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Extraordinary flooding circumstances create some amount of
erosion. Project engineers from both
commissioned firms, Peregrine and EBA, agreed when asked directly, that it is
the quantity of water and the flow rate of the water, as controlled by dam release,
that has, by far, the most considerable impact.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Geotechnical analysis should be focused on the area near the cabin,
the dogleg, and the area with the minimum extent of bank coverage. These were the sentiments agreed upon by the
Lions in conjunction with the meeting of the Town of Devon representatives. Upriver conditions were examined; visual inspections
did not report visible tension cracks. EBA states there is no risk of imminent riverbank
failure. The main roadway in the
campground could be compromised to traffic well before the riverbank erodes to
the point of contact. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Most erosion occurs during the major water release periods from
upriver dams. This may happen in
conjunction with heavy precipitation events or during times of high snowmelt
and glacial melt. Environment Canada records
show the majority of precipitation is recorded from May through September. Spring melt combined with substantial
precipitation events probably carries the highest potential for overtopping. The Peregrine consultant corroborated this
information during her immediate post-inspection visit and site de-brief.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Google Earth shots available to the public were used for riverbank
erosion "rough" analysis. Two
data points by Google Earth applicable to this area were drawn from 2004 and
2008 data. A line was drawn from the
bottom (SE corner of the Cabin directly to the riverbank at approx. 85.xx
degrees < 1-degree variance and compared between the years 2004 and
2008. The year 2004 shows approximately
59.23 feet and the 2008 image shows approximately 55.6 feet. The rate of declination over the four-year
period approximated at 3.63 feet. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">A second analysis was done using a fixed infrastructure point. In this case, the measurement was centered on
a fixed point and extended to the top of the bank as imaged overhead. The reduction of terrain appears to be
approximately 2.81 feet in this case. The
rate of bank erosion varies from area to area.
Compensation was applied for a < 1-degree variance, generally
compensated by selecting an anchor point in line with extended vegetation and a
clear demarcation of bank shading, indicating the exposed face of the riverbank. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Again, heading variance accounts for a minor distance variance,
probably less than a couple of inches.
This measurement is subjective on the riverside anchor point due to
vegetation changes and interruption of overhead resolution of the image, yet it is
probably a fair indicator. Close
examination also reveals lost vegetation, although the major trees appear to
remain intact. This could be the result
of pruning or the result of smaller vegetative features eroding into the
river. It is impossible to detect this
with low-resolution satellite imagery and the measurement should only be
considered a very rough estimate.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">It seems unlikely that erosion rates would be consistent along the
course of the area under study, and the predominant hydrological factor affecting the rate would probably be the evident sand bar that exists in the river proximal to
the area of the cabin. Intuitively, it
appears to have the effect of slowing the rate in that area. As the river flow rate slows, sediment tends to
fall out or "sink" which would create and sustain a feature like this
sandbar. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">As the river passes that zone and proceeds down the river, it seems to pick
up speed, thus predictive of a more rapid rate of recession in the downriver area. This presumptive estimate seems to have been
borne out by measurements. The EBA study
focused on the same area provides no analysis as to the rate of declination of
the land area. Their overhead imagery is the same source (Google Earth) with imagery taken from the 2008 posting of Google
Earth. The EBA study had no year-over-year comparisons or period-over-period analysis. Although the bottom right corner of the image
shows "2012", this refers to the access year of the image by the Google
Earth user.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The third area of analysis was set on the distal area of the driving
road anchored in the central traffic division feature that existed at both
points in time. The 2004 image shows
approximately 87.96 feet compared to the 2008 image at 81.71 feet, or approximately
5.25 feet of recession. Once again, the downriver
portion of the river study area appears to be showing a gain in velocity. In Saskatoon, a confluence near an erosion
riverbank area seemed quite similar to Washout Creek and suggested potential interplay
with erosion rates near the confluence with the North Saskatchewan, potentially
introducing another hydrological feature into the mix that could create
increased bank instability, which, as noted above, has been an ongoing issue in
the Saskatoon region.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Bighorn dam created Lake Abraham, Alberta's largest man-made
lake. The Bighorn Plant generates enough
electricity to supply the equivalent of 58,300 Alberta households. The Bighorn embankment dam was built in 1972 in the mountain gap at Windy Point, in the Front Ranges of
the Canadian Rockies, west of the confluence of the
North Saskatchewan River and the Bighorn River, and is managed by TransAlta.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Brazeau Dam is located in Brazeau County of Central Alberta, 55 kilometers (34 mi) southwest of Drayton Valley. It was developed along the Brazeau River,
at the confluence with Elk River, in the hydrographic basin of
the North Saskatchewan River. The Brazeau Dam is managed by TransAlta and produces 394,000 MWh per year, with a capacity of 355 megawatts. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Since release from the Bighorn and Brazeau are, in times of large
precipitation, largely interdependent,
the impact of water level and velocity are directly influenced by these
two dams. There are many factors that govern
water release. The upriver dams would
both have a considerable impact on flow rate and quantity.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The North Saskatchewan River is subject to the 1969 Prairie
Provinces Water Board Master Agreement on Apportionment (PPWB), which states that Alberta must
allow 50% of the natural flow of east-flowing rivers to enter
Saskatchewan. It also prescribes the minimum
flow required and water quality objectives<w:sdt citation="t" id="457775469"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-CA style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-CA'> CITATION Nor12 \l 4105 </span><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-CA"> (Alliance)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. It is likely to release rates would be managed,
in part, by the PPWB master agreement.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The EBA project engineer who previously worked on the Shaw
Conference Centre armoring, and a City of Edmonton official, both indicated there
has been no effective way to generate release agreements designed to mitigate
erosion between hydroelectric operators and individual municipalities. It seems unlikely Devon would fare any
better. In addition to the requirements
of the PPWB Master Agreement, there are commercial considerations for power
generation. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Erosion appears blunted near the cabin due to the projection of the
pronounced sandbar. This is evidenced in
the 04-08 erosion rate of 3.63 feet. The
natural velocity of the river should tend to be slow immediately proximal to
the downriver side of the sandbar projection and then accelerate as it
progresses past the cabin area. This, in
turn, should present by way of further erosion rates on downriver trend as is
borne out by the 2004-2008 findings that show a similar rate of erosion at the
dogleg of 2.81. Cabin and dogleg
measurements are similar for rates of erosion.
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<span lang="EN-US">The river apparently begins to pick up speed at the third measurement
point, advancing to a rate of 5.25 feet over the same period of time. These measurements can be precisely
calculated via surface GPS release floats, undercurrent speeds may also be
calculated in a similar manner. The
findings corroborate intrinsic knowledge and logical inference. Some flow rate and river level historical
records may be consulted to examine concerns of overtopping due to severe
floods. Some photographs of overtopping
events have been brought forward by local residents.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">There are unknown hydrological implications of the washout creek
confluence and the interplay of aquifer recharge upstream of the confluence. Recharge influence over lateral instability
could logically result in an alluvial presentation of erosion proximal to the
confluence. Local knowledge suggests
there may exist one overflow pipe system for confluence drainage, probably
designed for overtopping mitigation of Washout Creek. Documenting and evaluating this drainage
system may turn out to be an activity with merit.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The City of Saskatoon has battled riverbank erosion since the early
part of the 20th century. Numerous
studies have been commissioned along with a variety of remediation efforts. Much of their efforts have surrounded subsurface
drainage systems in combination with berming of slopes and armoring of the riverbank. Their situation is largely influenced by the rate,
flow, and discharge of urban-influenced surficial aquifers and regional aquifers<w:sdt citation="t" id="457775520"><!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-CA style='mso-ansi-language:EN-CA'> CITATION
AWC80 \l 4105 </span><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> <span lang="EN-CA">(A.W. Clifton, 1980)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. Saskatoon has obtained favorable results with
berming and riverbank armoring. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">To my knowledge, a stratographic assessment of the Lions Campground has
never been done, which precludes an understanding of aquifer recharge
implications relative to stratographic identification of potential erosion or
"slide" areas. There may be some merit in considering a
stratographic assessment of drift and underlying till. An image of the stratographic assessment of
the 18th Street cross-section from Saskatoon is included as a reference.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">It is possible an inferred slip zone could be negotiated
scientifically, but it should also be noted that an intrinsic geologic
understanding of this area could rule out the need to undertake such an assessment. Stratographic interpretation has not been discussed
by EBA or Peregrine but has been a component of both the City of Saskatoon and
the University of Alberta College of Engineering studies cited herein. In other words, the one integrated science
both the commissioned reports did not have.
In the event of overtopping, such an assessment would seem to be more important
relative to the inland embankment upon which housing is situated. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Natural Resources Canada produced a comprehensive geoscape of the
Saskatoon area<w:sdt citation="t" id="457775639"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-CA style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-CA'> CITATION Nat12 \l 4105 </span><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> <span lang="EN-CA">(Canada N. R.)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. NRCAN research also described coarse rock
berms as a contra-erosion feature leveraged for bridge protection in low-lying
areas, which is in line with coarse rock berm armoring undertaken at the Shaw
Conference Center. Appropriate
geological advice prior to discarding the idea of a stratographic study out of
hand might be warranted, although it seems unnecessary to our goal of
protecting the campground from lateral erosion of low-lying areas and preventing
the loss of corresponding parkland features of the campground.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Geoscape contextualization demonstrates the integrated science
approach to erosion analysis<w:sdt citation="t" id="457775703"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-CA style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-CA'> CITATION Env12 \l 4105 </span><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> <span lang="EN-CA">(Canada E. )</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. Conducting a spatial imaging pattern
recognition analysis of the river might be warranted. This could be attained through the Government
of Alberta archives for imagery and possibly accessing data from the Spatial
Information Systems Laboratory (SISL) at the University of Alberta. Academic dialogue with leading hydrological,
geotechnical, geological, and geophysical resources should not be discarded out
of hand when it is possible for the SISL could provide access to GIS data and mapping
software at little to no cost with possible collateral interactions with
multidisciplinary scientists.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">One thing is certain; we are not alone. Edmonton's river valley has also been the subject of considerable study. In every study related to riverbank erosion that I have consulted, they have all included stratigraphic and topographic considerations of relative geology in the immediate area of concern.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Referenced is a study undertaken by the University of Alberta in
conjunction with the physical expansion of the University. The study was headed by the Dean of the
College of Engineering<w:sdt citation="t" id="457775762"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-CA style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-CA'> CITATION STh78 \l 4105 </span><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--> <span lang="EN-CA">(S. Thompson, 1978)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt>. The conclusion of that report spoke directly to
lateral erosion. The University of
Alberta, the Shaw Conference Centre, and the City of Saskatoon implemented
berming and riverbank armoring. In the
case of the University of Alberta, riprap facing was employed using a variety
of sizes. The sizes were carefully
selected depending on calculated erosion forces given estimated flow rates. The University of Alberta also concluded that
lateral meandering is more significant than valley downcutting.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The University of Alberta study noted the economic cost of riverbank
stabilization work to be substantial. The
annual cost of riverbank stabilization approaches the value of land protected,
thus they argued the only case that justifies such measures would be those
instances where it would impact public use and recreational activities… as is
the case in Devon.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt; font-variant: small-caps; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Town of Devon and the Devon Lions Club are two highly impacted
stakeholders. As such, the Devon Lions
Club has appointed by resolution of the General Membership, two
representatives to liaise between the Devon Lions Club and the Municipality. Areas of primary concern and action items outlined
by the EBA study focus on continued bank monitoring and structural
engineering analysis of the existing walls and bank protection mechanisms to
insure ongoing stability. Plans are
being developed to protect the campground from further bank erosion through the
measure of adding "armoring" to the riverbanks.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Town of Devon and the Devon Lions Club are two highly impacted
stakeholders. As such, the Devon Lions
Club has appointed by resolution of the General Membership, two
representatives to liaise between the Devon Lions Club and the Municipality. Areas of primary concern and action items outlined
by the EBA study focus on continued bank monitoring and structural
engineering analysis of the existing walls and bank protection mechanisms to
insure ongoing stability. Plans are
being developed to protect the campground from further bank erosion through the
measure of adding "armoring" to the riverbanks.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">After considerable independent research, I agree that vulnerable zones should receive armoring, although the riprap should be properly determined as per the University of Alberta study. Given my knowledge of the beliefs of the local people, I think armoring the high-risk sites, namely, the cabin to the dogleg area would alleviate the highest concerns while protecting against the most expensive issue, the potential relocation of a roadway. It is probably wise to explore an initial armoring phase in this area. This would be a highly visible project providing physical reinforcement.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Riverbank armoring may not actually require approvals of other
levels of government so long as the equipment used to undertake the armoring is not
required to enter the river properly. This
should be investigated at the outset of any planning to prevent any possible
issues with other levels of government.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Both consultants suggested low precipitation months as being optimal
for work schedules. Materials may exist
by way of the Town of Devon sidewalk and curb replacement program rubble, or
some form of riprap, appropriately sized and suitably esthetic. Given the timelines, a planning phase could
extend from early 2013 to late Spring 2013 or Summer, so as to accommodate
public input and leverage a consultative process. This would allow time to undertake
ingress/egress arrangements to the riverbank at project commencement. When river flow reduces in the Fall or early
Winter of 2013/2014, work could be undertaken.
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<span lang="EN-US">Major improvements could be budgeted across fiscal years, with long-range
ongoing investment through the 2014 - 2017 range if deemed feasible. Further, a member of the Lions Club noted
there was a pathway on the riverbank.
Given the River Valley Alliance (RVA) funding and the pre-existing path
structures that connect the RVA, there may be some partial offsets to bank
stabilization expenditures. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">There have been some discussions relative to making other changes in
the River Valley. These include an
extension of the existing boat launch or possibly the addition of another boat
launch. Whatever these plans are, some
amount of consideration should be given to those plans so that any work was undertaken to prevent riverbank erosion would not create undue conflicts with
future projects. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Cited </span></div>
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<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<!--[if supportFields]><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>BIBLIOGRAPHY <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">A.W. Clifton, J. K. (1980). <i>Riverbank
instability and development control in Saskatoon.</i> Saskatoon: 1980.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">Alliance, N.
S. (n.d.). <i>About the Watershed</i>. Retrieved November 21, 2012, from North
Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance:
http://www.nswa.ab.ca/content/about-the-watershed<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">Almanac, F.
(n.d.). <i>2013 Long-Range Weather Forecast for Edmonton, Alberta</i>.
Retrieved November 21, 2012, from Farmers Almanac: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/AB/Edmonton<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">Canada, E.
(n.d.). <i>Environment Canada</i>. Retrieved 11 18, 2012, from National
Hydrological Resources Centre: http://www.ec.gc.ca/scitech/default.asp?lang=En&n=44EEFEB3-1#nhrc<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">Canada, N.
R. (n.d.). <i>The Trouble With Valley Slopes : Landslides</i>. Retrieved 11 28,
2012, from Natural Resources Canada Earth Sciences:
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca.earth-sciences/files/pdf/sask/pdf/geoscape_southsask_landslides_e.pdf<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">EBA - A TERA
TECH COMPANY. (2012). <i>Riverbank Erosion and Stability Assesment North
Saskatchewan River.</i> Devon: A.F. (Tony) Ruban, M.Eng., P.Eng., Brian C.
Adeney, P.Eng.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoBibliography" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US">S. Thompson,
D. T. (1978). <i>River erosion and bank stabalization - North Saskatchewan
River, Alberta.</i> Edmonton: Department of Civil Engineering, University of
Alberta.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-61847762464993834352012-11-10T13:33:00.001-08:002023-01-04T13:52:28.409-08:00Veteran's Day Message 2012<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b>Veteran's Day Message 2012</b></h2>
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Fresh from the excitement of the U.S. Election, I'm pleased to see the democratic system of the United States transition power (in this case retain it) in a peaceful manner as has been the hallmark of the great union since George Washington rejected the notion of being a King or President for life.</div>
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George Washington left his service as President imparting words of wisdom to the new nation… among those words, he said, "The basis of our political systems is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government. But the constitution which at any time exists till changed by an explicit and authentic act of the whole people is sacredly obligatory upon all". Clearly, President Washington was a man who understood the value of democracy and the rights of the people. He was also a man who suffered terrible hardships of war to enshrine those values. </div>
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In the United States election, I watched as partisan politics generated a fever pitch in the months leading up to the election. Even the news channels seemed to have a stronger partisan flavor than usual. Immediately after the election, the conversations quickly turn to the problems ahead and how there will be a great conflict in a nation so evenly divided. In part, this is probably due to the pain of defeat, which is very real. Especially for the candidates and their campaign workers and the thousands of volunteers who have placed countless hours of their lives into a cause they dearly believed in. But the pain of an election defeat quickly dissipates and the business of the union continues.</div>
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I always harbor a strong sense of optimism at election time because I would like to believe that true patriotism is always prepared to blossom in the hearts of those who will head to Washington to govern the nation. Patriotism itself should guide the larger needs of the nation and infuse a sense of collaboration in all hearts. But the optimism, like the pain of defeat or the ecstasy of victory, also tends to dissipate as the omnipresent tasks ahead of the people are ever larger and more complex in a shrinking World.</div>
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The optimist believes the best days are still ahead of the United States. President Obama will be focused on shaping the policy environment that will usher in new jobs, a growing economy, and a shrinking level of military conflict around the World. Of course, the challenges are not easy nor will they be solved overnight. Hopefully, words of optimism and courage shall guide the republic and be a constant companion of political leaders in the weeks, months, and years ahead. </div>
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On a personal note, I'm cheering for President Obama because, Like former President Clinton, I believe his policy direction will pay dividends for the great republic. The global economic and security challenges this administration has faced have been historic. The President, however, is not without fault. During his first two years in office, he tended to undervalue the coin of the realm… trust. Trust between Republicans and Democrats alike. Politics do not need to be a blood sport. People who do not involve themselves with the machinations of the political intricacies of the beltway believe their representatives are assigned the job of looking after the republic and that they will do that work to great effect. </div>
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There will always be a reason to distrust the patriotism of those who, under any pretense, may endeavor to weaken its bonds. The division of political beliefs has spanned ever wider, creating large chasms that may disturb the republic. It is clearly a matter of great peril, that any circumstances should be furnished for characterizing parties by demographic or geographic discrimination. </div>
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The manipulative leaders of divisive policy endeavor to excite a belief that there is a real difference of interests and views. This is an expedient manner for a party to acquire influence within particular districts or parties. Altogether too often, they will readily misrepresent the opinions and aims of other districts or parties. Citizens should actively shield their hearts against the jealousies and divisiveness that spring from attempts to divide. Such actions render hostilities between citizens who ought to be bound together by fraternal affection. </div>
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I point no fingers at any party, instead, I caution people as citizens of the republic, thereby incorporating both the innocuous practitioners and the sublimely effective highly capitalized practitioners for whom financial capacity dwarfs the ability of the average person to compete for an understanding of their opinions. For the republic to be effective, a union of the government for everybody is indispensable and must be demanded of our elected representatives.</div>
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Some political entities exist to organize a strong faction and to endow it with extraordinary force powered by wealth. The danger of such entities is their proclivity to pretend they delegate the will of the republic while representing the will of their own interests. In many cases, such entities are driven by a minority of republics, making the public administration the mirror of the ill-concerted and incongruous projects of their self-serving goals. This is in stark contrast to transparent and well-thought-out plans that are evaluated by common counsels; modified by mutual interests and a sense of the fraternal good for the entire republic.</div>
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Unfortunately, the aforementioned political entities will seek to carry a popular issue such that it enhances their ability to become powerful organizations. Their leaders are often cunning and ambitious. Left unchecked, their ability to subvert the power of the people for their own purposes endangers the well-being of the republic. It is only through the constant opposition to such extremism that the public good will be served.</div>
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The baneful effects of the spirit of a political party have, as part and parcel of the very human nature of such organizations, the goal of domination over another. This is sharpened by the spirit of revenge natural to opposing parties or political entities. Left unchecked, the miseries imposed over the weaker entity, over time, will incentivize people to seek the security of the absolute power of the party or entity, expressed in our current system as partisan politics and control over key institutions. </div>
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Having no recourse, and left to prosper without dissent, leaders of powerful factions, having accumulated more fortune than their competitors, may seek to elevate their powers at the expense of the public good. Let these words stand as a grim reminder that public interest, the very foundations of democracy, become challenged whenever such polarization is allowed to run rampant over the larger needs of the republic and the people. As this election ended, leaders on both sides pontificated the need to work across the aisle and engage each other in the spirit of the public good. May we be fortunate to see these words translated into actions.</div>
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I believe the policy issues of the day, such as managing the finances of the republic, restoring geopolitical stability in the Middle East and elsewhere, the restoration of the economic engines that provide jobs, and a thoughtful dialogue about climate change constitute challenges every bit as large as the greatest challenges the republic has ever faced. In few instances, except during the great wars or during the civil war when the cousins battled each other for the very existence of the union itself, has more been at stake for the people of the republic. Accordingly, it is up to the people to demand, through their votes and their constant attention to government, a non-partisan spirit that shall not wane with the passing of some weeks or months. </div>
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This applies equally to all parties and political entities, all of which owe their very right to exist to the blood of the patriots shed across the centuries. Let the sacrifice of the many patriots be cherished and valued, for in their sacrifice the republic came to exist and survives to this day. Failure to arrive at political solutions for the overall public good, even at the expense of the power of the political party or entity, is to heap the ultimate disrespect upon the cherished memories of the many patriots who have fought and paid with their blood and with their lives, for the free republic that now faces these challenges.</div>
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I wish every success to the President of the United States, to his staff, and to the Congress as the elected representatives of the people. And I'm equally sure that, in the most fundamental sense of patriotic duty, this is also the wish of the people of the republic. I also admonish both parties for their partisan mischief over the last years, and I am very hopeful their desires for the future of the republic can, and shall, be placed above any and all forms of partisan posturing.</div>
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As it turns out, this is a rather rare election for me because the President is also my cousin. President Obama and I are 9th cousins, two times removed! I believe I shall, perhaps, write to the President and ask him to send his cousin some inauguration tickets. This will likely be the only chance I ever have to see a cousin sworn in as President of the United States for a second term. But I would also like to look back on such an experience knowing it was also the day a new journey on the path of bi-partisan politics began in Washington. </div>
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Interestingly, our common ancestors are from the Canadian side of our family tree that ties us together as cousins. POTUS has Canadian lineage he can be proud of! If I get the inauguration tickets and, possibly, the chance to converse with the President… I'll be sure to point that out to him.</div>
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In the meantime, dissolving all such fantasy of inaugural attendance, I turn my attention to the important duties of respecting our honored dead and the glorious living who have made the ultimate contract and compact with their fellow citizens, to defend freedom and liberty at all costs, and to pay any price to insure it, up to and including their own life if necessary. Let those brave men and women occupy our thoughts as we, the free from around the World, gather to remember and honor these brave people. Let us remember they have provided the very democracy where we prosper and thrive. If you know a Veteran, or if you have a Veteran in your family, maybe take a moment to thank them for their service. Those words mean more than you can ever imagine; it was for you whom they dedicated and sacrificed some of the best years of their lives.</div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-65797795120660737202012-11-02T19:30:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:30:57.503-08:00The E-President Poll predicts an Obama Win<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-US">In the last U.S. Presidential election, I invented a fun tool designed to measure the e-bay factor. It's a poll that looks at how much money people are willing to pay to have a piece of the candidate. The more items for sale the larger the demand. If the market has a larger demand AND a higher price, it's a hands-down winner. </span>The fascinating part is that it had a 100% predictability record in the 2008 U.S. election, both in the primaries and the general election. <br />
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e-President poll is not scientific, in fact, it's about as subjective as you can get. I just do this for fun. Still, it seems to have a good track record to predict the Presidency! So here we go again. Keep in mind, the last election did not feature a sitting President, so owning a piece of the candidate made for a relatively equal playing field in 2008. In this election, if you bought Obama, you'd be getting a Presidential autograph and if you buy a piece of Romney, you won't know if it's a Presidential autograph until after the election... could turn out to be the autograph of somebody who ran and lost, so the value is harder to appreciate. This means more measures should be introduced, so I added active bids.<br />
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Active bids are the range where the "buy it now" signs tend to either fall off or we see multiple bids on items with regularity. In other words, this is where the market becomes quite active for both candidates, indicating a measure of liquidity. In this area, Obama holds roughly a 4:1 advantage over Romney. Unfortunately, this is a new measurement, so I can't compare it to the 2008 data. Obama's Active Bid Range starts just shy of 400 and strengthens into the 350-dollar range whereas Romney starts at 100 and strengthens into the 75-dollar range. Interestingly, a lot of items for sale this year are signed baseballs.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5m6iBwf9LfaR8KOrj_2_qCBbI-taD_OMQewGLcZ47XrK1YsTTjqXrGda0EDmVwqDvjesk-IZLwQZnqM2lx8C9LsSSdk0O0dLQ6uKMGD3meSYMqI_T6QOO-osLHofhzNjoiE75JEJiRuQ/s1600/e-Pres+2012+Active+Bid.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5m6iBwf9LfaR8KOrj_2_qCBbI-taD_OMQewGLcZ47XrK1YsTTjqXrGda0EDmVwqDvjesk-IZLwQZnqM2lx8C9LsSSdk0O0dLQ6uKMGD3meSYMqI_T6QOO-osLHofhzNjoiE75JEJiRuQ/s320/e-Pres+2012+Active+Bid.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Active Bid Range 3.99 : 1 Obama</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-US">Item count is another category, and compared to the 2008 election, where Obama's item count was 3.7 times higher than McCain's; the range has narrowed in this election with Obama posting 2.8 times the item count Romney has. This is a troubling statistic for the incumbent president as one would expect an incumbent President's item count separation to be wider. I think this reflects a much stronger candidacy from the Republican ticket.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7uFfr-DLJtUQl0HNgA60gdwAD7__2kTAsCtXMr34WkoWSk-sQKu41IJDMcErZ2eeQoiUuBdRykUPI1V4MLC2XVSZYPuPT6RmxEf5whbjRvZw6nREPxqFryiNRywhTpjc9Y713e3dM7IA/s1600/e-Pres+2012+Item+Count.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7uFfr-DLJtUQl0HNgA60gdwAD7__2kTAsCtXMr34WkoWSk-sQKu41IJDMcErZ2eeQoiUuBdRykUPI1V4MLC2XVSZYPuPT6RmxEf5whbjRvZw6nREPxqFryiNRywhTpjc9Y713e3dM7IA/s320/e-Pres+2012+Item+Count.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Item Count 2.87 : 1 Obama</td></tr>
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The value predictor... or how much people will pay to "own" a piece of the candidate has also changed between 2008 and 2012. Obama's cash value has slipped from 2008 when it was 2,500 down to 2,125 in 2012. Romney, on the other hand, posts nearly 400 bucks on top cash value pre-election compared to a mere 108 bucks for McCain back in 2008. This means Romney is a stronger candidate than McCain according to valuation figures. and the ratio has vastly changed down from 23:1 in 2008 to a mere 6:1 advantage for Obama in this election.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkplrAgu3sQd8qGc4Br7vlLM9uLUI4nRv_JK3F1i_2FIinnpla0Hdk4l4Em7pAYpORpk5wWLl58HtmzGJUx2hKVvBLZNgNorgWRSWG4ioNSp3ALLlmdfOHLCTjkbC7lh5cHSMzuWyAEjc/s1600/e-Pres+2012+Valuation.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkplrAgu3sQd8qGc4Br7vlLM9uLUI4nRv_JK3F1i_2FIinnpla0Hdk4l4Em7pAYpORpk5wWLl58HtmzGJUx2hKVvBLZNgNorgWRSWG4ioNSp3ALLlmdfOHLCTjkbC7lh5cHSMzuWyAEjc/s320/e-Pres+2012+Valuation.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cash Value 6.08 : 1 Obama</td></tr>
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<b>My analysis is as follows:</b><br />
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Obama will win the election, although due to lower bid values and a tighter range, and compensating for an incumbency, it looks to be that the polls are correct, this will be an exceptionally close election. The bottom line will be how the swing states go, and on that count, I believe the map of the United States will look very red, but most of the key swing states will be blue; placing President Obama over the top in the Electoral College, but it could be tight... with a possible electoral college win of less than 30.<br />
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A narrow active bid range is also troubling, but I feel the margin is wide enough to make it easy to call the race. Obama enjoys both a far larger base of active bids and the quality is superior. Romney, apparently, isn't as easy to sell on eBay. I was going to try and use Hillary as a potential marker to adjust for incumbent vs. non-incumbent, but even though she is Secretary of State, she is also a failed candidate and her e-bay numbers were in the tank... so not a good way to go.<br />
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I'm going to apply a 4:1 rule for incumbent vs. non and look at an amalgamated difference in the ratios posted in item count, valuation, and active bids. Bear with me... it's a guess. But using this as my only attempt at a data normalization attempt, I arrive at a predicted victory by Obama of approximately 3.2 (+/- 3) In other words... it won't be pretty, but Obama wins in 2012. </div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-90667968389563008062012-04-28T15:41:00.001-07:002023-01-04T14:32:29.010-08:00Climate Change and Arctic Methane<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBH9nlcwDUTzEa6qSl48sAqJlg2CMOoA07x0ckL3YrTVgVrrZD0cSgi7jNozSYR5IqmBpQN3z_KdEselRk4VIHOJRSHEemrzL_zWjLBC7nLToUQtHhxWRaTIjfbZ6TwpLST6QSOeczLtI/s1600/earth20120422-640.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBH9nlcwDUTzEa6qSl48sAqJlg2CMOoA07x0ckL3YrTVgVrrZD0cSgi7jNozSYR5IqmBpQN3z_KdEselRk4VIHOJRSHEemrzL_zWjLBC7nLToUQtHhxWRaTIjfbZ6TwpLST6QSOeczLtI/s320/earth20120422-640.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Arctic Ocean Latitude 71 degrees North<br />
April 15, 2010, Image Credit: NASA/JPL</td></tr>
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I recently noticed a fascinating article in the Edmonton Journal written by Margaret Munro of the Postmedia News entitled "</span><a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Scientists+eager+drill+Arctic+waters+answers+about+methane/6535248/story.html" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Scientists eager to drill in Arctic Waters for answers about methane</a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">". The article goes on to outline a project being undertaken by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program for the expressed purpose of gathering a deeper understanding of the ramifications of methane coming out from the permafrost under the Arctic. </span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Glaciologists, geologists, and environmental researchers of different disciplines have been pondering very large questions related to the planetary environment and what the potential impacts could be to humans. Of particular interest recently, is the impact of methane hydrates coming out from the permafrost beneath the Arctic. Since methane is probably 20 to 25 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, there are considerable ramifications associated with this research. Methane has a short half-life compared to CO2, so it dissipates faster, this offsets the sheer quantities that could be released into the atmosphere. With estimates of methane hydrates being discussed in vast numbers, understanding the risk imposed by climate change in the Arctic is not a subject to be taken lightly. </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX_JrADHIfRVoP6hSPYqyZElWTZbZZlRnN533TRKZ1zyfc04YLxX5MRymEHeCknkKSgKUVuU7KH6HmRZgN7XYM-L272BYr_9XYYKnYO6gjKxkR6MQMIlwBr8G5uIlG_zEvV6EWEIXvi24/s1600/Systems.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX_JrADHIfRVoP6hSPYqyZElWTZbZZlRnN533TRKZ1zyfc04YLxX5MRymEHeCknkKSgKUVuU7KH6HmRZgN7XYM-L272BYr_9XYYKnYO6gjKxkR6MQMIlwBr8G5uIlG_zEvV6EWEIXvi24/s200/Systems.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image Courtesy of: <br />
Gordon Groat <br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Ph.D.(abd), M.Sc. (hon), M.A., B.G.S. (IPE), A.A.Sc.<br />Taken from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/bluegringo/co2-and-climate-change" target="_blank">CO2 and Climate Change</a></span></td></tr>
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">According to Gregory Ryskin, associate professor of chemical engineering at Northwestern University, "explosive clouds of methane gas, initially trapped in stagnant bodies of water and suddenly released, could have killed off the majority of marine life and land animals and plants at the end of the Permian era" — long before dinosaurs lived and died. Ryskin believes that methane may have been the driving force in previous catastrophic changes in the earth's climate, where 95 percent of marine species and 70 percent of land species were lost in - geologically speaking - the blink of an eye.</span></div>
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The most troubling estimates suggest that once triggered, this cycle could result in runaway global warming, sometimes referred to as a tipping point. While our scientific evidence is still limited in scope, it is important to consider what we know from looking back in time. It seems prudent to be cognizant of strong geologic evidence that suggests something similar has happened at least twice before. The most recent of these catastrophes occurred about 55 million years ago in what geologists call the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), when methane burps caused rapid warming and massive die-offs, disrupting the climate for more than 100,000 years. The granddaddy of these catastrophes occurred 251 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period when a series of methane burps came close to wiping out all life on Earth. More than 94 percent of the marine species present in the fossil record disappeared suddenly as oxygen levels plummeted and life teetered on the verge of extinction. Over the ensuing 500,000 years, a few species struggled to gain a foothold in the hostile environment. It took 20 million to 30 million years for even rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish themselves and for forests to re-grow. In some areas, it took more than 100 million years for ecosystems to reach their former healthy diversity</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzac3FalElaiDyBOFGKLPT2_gXXAD1ndnmuP1wYtdFmPrjpkJVegtBzRoUmpkFyRr9RYEvXCasEME-5e4yVB5l0WHjWvIlqv8hV313TZ08hTkoXYBTnWYyFb2Qy-joXqJl6I5iPX05NRQ/s1600/Blue+Dot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzac3FalElaiDyBOFGKLPT2_gXXAD1ndnmuP1wYtdFmPrjpkJVegtBzRoUmpkFyRr9RYEvXCasEME-5e4yVB5l0WHjWvIlqv8hV313TZ08hTkoXYBTnWYyFb2Qy-joXqJl6I5iPX05NRQ/s200/Blue+Dot.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Earth image courtesy of: <br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">NASA / JPL</span></td></tr>
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Climate change... if it is anything, it is definitely controversial. It is also a scientific field that is relatively new and requires additional investment to produce the scope of data required to properly evaluate the impact of methane release. It should also be noted that methane emissions from tropical areas far surpass, in scale, the emissions of the Arctic. Nevertheless, methane release due to climate change in the Arctic is worthy of scientific investigation. The science is not settled on this matter, but it is of considerable importance. </span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">At the very least, it seems logical to establish baseline measurements of methane in the Arctic simply because the vast potential amounts of methane warrant our investigation for the purpose of understanding changing levels of methane. This is required in order to reduce the chance of misinterpreting changes in methane levels as climate change continues.</span></div>
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">To further understanding of the ramifications of global climate change impacts due to methane release from the Arctic, there is a need to establish increased scientific monitoring and research on the subject. Rising surface temperatures should motivate the international scientific community to consider these questions. Appropriate considerations imply the need for the deployment of scientific measuring instrumentation, improved international collaboration, and the integration of traditional indigenous knowledge. </span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">One particularly revealing comment made by an indigenous elder of the Arctic was "in our generational memory, we have never seen the ice melt so much, we have never seen so much open water". This prompted the interviewing scientist to ask if that meant one generation or two perhaps. The question was not easily understood by the elder. After some more questions, the elder replied that by generational, they meant thousands of years. This underscores the critical fundamental knowledge carried by the indigenous people of the Arctic. There are literally thousands of expressions to describe different ice conditions, many of them not easily translatable into English, at least not to their satisfaction. Thankfully, as research in the Arctic moves forward, more and more participation and collaboration is taking place with indigenous peoples.</span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This raises the question of what to do with the research. It's critical to place the best science we possibly can gather into the hands of decision-makers. The policymakers and governments that have jurisdiction in many areas of the Arctic reside thousands of miles away from the Arctic. This poses a fundamental problem that can possibly be overcome by hybridizing the structure of decision-making in the Arctic. </span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">By leveraging the model of the Arctic Council, where indigenous people have a seat and a full voice at the decision-making table, the outcomes can be tailored to the decision-making requirements of the region. Of course, full diplomatic, governmental, and organizational representation is advantageous for everybody, but there may also be room for an international body where all interested scientists and people who wish to share in a democratic and open manner can come together to form the best decisions possible.</span><br />
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<span face="Calibri, sans-serif">When considering methane, or any other scientific endeavor in the Arctic, it is important for us to remember that the great frontier left in the World today is the Arctic. This means our investment, our intentions, and our results will be measured in the centuries to come. Given the enormous impact of climate change upon the entire planet, and given the rate of climate change is highly accelerated in the Arctic, it might just stand to reason that the most important decisions we make in Canada and the rest of the Circumpolar nations will be among some of the most important decisions that will be taken in the 21st century.</span></div>
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Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-86802657396610175442011-12-18T17:39:00.000-08:002011-12-18T21:28:36.635-08:00Leaders, Greed, and Envy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<b>Effective Leaders </b><br />
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Leadership is not something that separates one person from the next in a given organization; instead, it is something that unites them. All too often, it has been suggested that a great leader stands apart from the rest of the organization. It is my belief that such a suggestion can only be made by somebody who has never functioned effectively in a top leadership role. Great leaders are the ones that recognize any organization is a product of all the people within it, and that leadership is based entirely upon the willing consent of those who comprise the organization.<br />
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Genuine leadership arrives from the desire and willpower to become an effective leader. The great ones develop these skills through a never ending process of self-study, education, training, and experience. It is unthinkable to suggest that education is not part of the equation. If that were true, then why would every major power, government, or corporation throughout history insist on advancing the education of their leaders? Why would governments and corporations invest so heavily in executive education if it was deemed to be of little value? These questions serve to underscore the universal truth that education is one of the most critical building blocks upon which great leadership is derived.<br />
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Education obviously provides the leader with a more expansive breadth of knowledge and a diverse background from which to consider key issues and devise appropriate strategies. It is also associated with extended critical thought, scientific methodologies, and investment in quantitative and qualitative analysis; skills that are increasingly critical to organizational success.<br />
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The basic precept that leadership requires the consent of those who are being led has a correlation to the willingness of highly educated people to accept the leadership of those who have not made the sacrifices required to attain similar levels of education. This is, essentially, seen by those whom they would propose to lead as a blatant devaluation of their intellectual capital; not well received by investors in intellectual capital. In most corporate, scientific, and leading edge research environments, there are certain minimum requirements that must be met; that mechanism tends to mitigate vast knowledge gaps that, in turn, could create issues in the realm of leadership.<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">G<b>ood leaders are made not born. If you have the desire and willpower, you can become an effective leader. Good leaders develop through a never ending process of self-study, education, training, and experience </b></span></i><br />
<i><b>~ Jago<span style="color: purple;"> </span></b></i></div>
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<b>Leaders And Followers </b><br />
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The need for freely offered support and a willingness to follow extends not just to the top leadership team, but to everyone in the organization. Fred Smith, founding chairman of Federal Express, once commented that by no means were all of his company’s 260,000 people leaders, nor that they even had the potential to be leaders. But those who were leaders, including himself, depended absolutely upon the rest of the 260,000 to get the job done. This applies equally to any organization. One of the most important dicta of leadership in any military leadership institution is "Do not give an order unless you know it will be obeyed". It is a dictum which speaks to the willingness to be led even in an organization where very severe punishment can arise from failure to follow orders.<br />
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The Arab Spring is a glittering example of what happens when people no longer consent to leadership by an individual or group. The movement is exemplified by people who are willing to pay the ultimate price to abolish leadership that has been unwillingly extracted. The downfall of Tunisia's President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the downfall of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, and the downfall of Libya's Muammer Gaddafi are recent examples of consent refusal. The Arab Spring is not yet over; and submission to leadership extracted unwillingly, it seems, creates an incredibly difficult challenge because, as we have seen, some of these dictators have been willing to unleash tremendous violence in order to retain their power.<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>The worst tyrants rule with the consent of those they govern – even if that consent is extracted unwillingly </b></span></i><br />
<i><b>~ Kets de Vries<span style="color: purple; font-size: x-small;"> </span></b></i></div>
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<b>Leaders Are Made Not Born </b><br />
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To understand the fallacy of born leadership, the annuls of history provide ample records from which to draw; none more prolific than royalty. In observance of royal traditions, leaders are born. So long as some amount of luck and providence might apply, combined with the best education and training possible, subjects may come to know the blessing of a born leader who receives not only willing consent, but who inspires the confidence of their people. We see this in Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. The very precept upon which a monarch, such as Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, stands on to this very day, is the recognition of their subservience to God. They bow on bent knee to the Master of the Universe, hence the role of defender of the faith taking a paramount place in the ritual of enthronement for the United Kingdom.<br />
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Upon this threshold of celestial power, the basis of moral leadership is enshrined. One might expect the same for all the Kingdoms of the World, but it has not always proven to be so. When royal leadership has faltered, the cause is most often drawn back to the morality of decisions taken.<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">"<b>In making judgments, the Early Kings were perfect, because they made moral principles the starting point of all their undertakings and the root of everything that was beneficial. This principle, however, is something that persons of mediocre intelligence never grasp. Not grasping it, they lack awareness, and lacking awareness, they pursue profit. But while they pursue profit, it is absolutely impossible for them to be certain of attaining it." </b></span></i><br />
<i><b>~ Lu Bu-wei 246 B.C. Chinese Prime Minister under Emperor Ying Zheng<span style="color: purple;"> </span></b></i></div>
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<b>Leaders And Corporate Greed </b><br />
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In corporate environments, the ethos of leadership control is vested in the ability of top leaders to promote and enrich their followers, this has given rise to the unmitigated levels of corporate greed; a most unpleasant subject finally being taken up by a society that rejects and abhors unchecked greed and finds the growing disparity of wealth to be entirely repulsive.<br />
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The sketch of leadership stretching across the millennia arrives at our current station with some number of challenges. Some who are born of leadership assume it with grace and dignity and surround themselves with those who have worked hard to become great leaders; drawing upon the expertise of such people to guide their leadership. They have learned to use the wisdom of others as a graceful scepter. Some are born of leadership learning only to extract subservience through violence; this serves them only to a point.<br />
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For most of us, the great leaders we know are made and not born... but how do they arise to the top of their career ladders? How is it that some great leaders never arise past a certain level? Is it because their greatness is overrated or could it be due to obstacles placed in front of them by the levers of greed inspired by lesser people? Could it be that a huge rush of great leadership focused on correcting the misguided corporate inequities of the day is, in fact, thwarted by nothing more than the power of greed itself?<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The wheel of greed applied to corporate profit, wealth inequity, and political reform</span></span>
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The relentless pursuit of profits results in a tremendous amount of capital being made available for corporate leadership to disseminate. This leads to vast payouts and typically results in a substantial disparity of wealth. In turn, this disparity of wealth, and the uncontrolled spiral of wealth accumulation, has caused in some part, the necessity for massive layoffs and corporate bailouts. Once the corporate bailouts are placed upon the backs of taxpayers, it incites public backlash.<br />
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Because soft money exerts substantial influence over political campaigns, the legislative branch remains beholden to the influence of the fabulously wealthy. Corporate interests influence political leadership through contributions and, this in turn, has a substantial influence upon elections. This, in turn, reduces the proclivity of incumbents to disassociate themselves from their financial backers. The legislative process becomes obviously influenced, which in turn, links back to the status quo. The entire circle is both repeatable and predictable.<br />
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The core problem is those who profit from the status quo are able to influence what may or may not be done to modify the status quo. In other words, it seems logical that scientific management should entail the quest for logical and empirical facts and embrace their unprejudiced and objective analysis. Upon this foundation, policy and administration should be enacted. This does not occur because of an uncompromising maintenance of the status quo and, more accurately, because of the financial power that holds sway over the status quo. At the end of the day, who is going to vote to give themself a huge pay decrease? This is a question which holds a reply that is self evident and has precipitated much political strife.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>There are two levers to set a man in motion, fear and self-interest </b></i></span><br />
<i><b>~ Napoleon Bonaparte </b></i></div>
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<b>Growth and Envy </b><br />
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Another difficult problem with leadership is often uncovered when leadership groups are comprised of individuals with great disparity of ability. This often brings forward the emotion of envy. Not jealousy, as that emotion involves losing something one may already have. Envy, on the other hand, is the desire to have something another person has or feeling as though one does not measure up to another. The age old act of comparing to others creates predictable outcomes, one of them is growth; another is envy.<br />
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Let us first examine growth... upon this pillar we find most of the time tested precepts of great leadership. Valued growth can be sustained by effective leadership mechanisms. All of the actions of a healthy leadership group centre around growth. Growth under the guidance of moral and capable people creates the most cherished outcomes of good leadership. Rejection of envy and embracing growth facilitates many positive outcomes.<br />
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The flipside is an organization where envy proliferates. This is often caused by failure to build a strengths based organization, exacerbated by leadership teams with substantial qualification inequities. It is, perhaps, more rarified to see this particular state in Fortune 500 corporations or in leading edge scientific endeavors where leadership is assumed primarily from within the ranks of qualified personnel. It is, obviously, more prevalent in organizations where a large disparity of qualifications exist by virtue of organizational design.<br />
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In shaping a strengths based organization, one builds upon individual strengths or passions, attempting to create a balance where each leader is accepted due to their expertise and wisdom related to a specific area of assignment. Ignoring the powerful emotion of envy is almost certain to result in lost capacity due to the fallout from schadenfreude, or the pleasure derived from the misfortune of others; the most aggressive form of envy.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>What cowardice it is to be dismayed by the happiness of others and devastated by their good fortune </b></i></span><br />
<i><b>~ Montesquieu<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></b></i></div>
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<b>Inspirational Leadership</b><br />
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A leader is someone who inspires a following. Those who wish to become great leaders are faced with one incontrovertible truth, the road to leadership is one with many obstacles and it requires commitment and sacrifice to obtain the skills necessary to become a leader. Groups will only willingly follow leaders, they will not follow managers without the perquisite skills to be a leader. While it is true that willingness to follow may be inspired by threats or intimidation, such tactics function to send the best and most promising leaders to seek employment elsewhere. As mentioned above, while it is true that some organizational structures may leverage coercion that requires people to follow leaders, in a free society, such tactics will never succeed.<br />
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On the grass roots level, the budding leader must recognize that a genuine leader never seeks to oppress those who wish to learn from their abilities, but rather, they wish to create success for others. There is nothing more gratifying for a leader than to see their protégés elevated in the organization or even in other organizations. This is the basis of genuine reward for a great leader.<br />
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If an individual desires the following that a great leader has, but the group does not follow them and, instead, follows their chosen leader, the envious person will likely be disposed to attack that leader in an attempt to destroy or remove them. That path results in diminished organizational capacity because followers, and the attacked leader, will often seek to find other organizations or other departments within the same organization that prosper through the bounty of genuine leadership.<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>The best leaders in the world will fail unless they have the trust and willing support of those around them </b></span></i><br />
<i><b>~ Witzel </b></i></div>
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<b> Moral Leadership </b><br />
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Understanding yourself, your motives, and your moral compass elevates leadership. One of the self evident truths of life is that there will always be those who have greater skills. The great leader recognizes the skill sets of their followers and they embrace those skills. They draw attention to the special skills of their followers and elevate them as integral components of a more successful organization. The weak leader views this as a threat to their own position.
Thus, the two waterfalls of leadership, one filled with insecurity, the other with hard work, dedication, sacrifice, and adherence to certain moral values.<br />
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As has always been the case, the leader given to act based on a strong sense of self confidence and grounded with solid moral values, will be able to take decisive action with relative ease. This is done in accordance with the knowledge that what is right must be acted upon. What must be acted upon should be acted upon without hesitation, and thus a perceived ability to take decisive action.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>When your values are clear to you, making decisions becomes easier </b></i></span><br />
<i><b>~ Roy Disney</b></i></div>
</div>Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-48458380358839983712011-10-29T22:54:00.000-07:002011-11-10T23:19:30.097-08:00Q&A : More About Bike Town<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b style="color: lime; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Statement of Independent Opinion</i></b><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I wish to point out that this article is of my own
creation. I am merely exercising my right
to freedom of speech such as would be the right of any Canadian Citizen. While it is true I am a Councillor, the
viewpoints, thoughts, and information provided herein are of my own creation
with no intention of representing the thoughts, wishes, feelings, or policies
of either the Council or Administration; nor should it be construed to be provided under
the approbation of the aforementioned entities.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: lime;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: lime;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i>Statement</i></b></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i> of Bias</i></span></span></b></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'll attempt to answer the common body of questions to the best of my ability. Since I am a member of Council and have participated in developing the policy guidance for Administration regarding Bike Town, the reader should be advised of this influence upon objectivity. I am also not a professional brand development expert, and while I will attempt to explain the academic underpinnings of brand development, I necessarily draw upon the expertise of others to frame some of the responses.</span><br />
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;"><br /></span></i></span></span></b><br />
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">What
is the process used to arrive at the Bike Town brand?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A business case was developed by municipal
staff in coordination with marketing leaders of regional organizations with
international reach. The decision matrix
was supported with quantitative and qualitative data from multiple sources and
supplemented with longitudinal data from the Board of Economic Development and
Tourism.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the commonly used theories centers
on a the concept of a brand value chain, you can find a primer <a href="http://www.netmba.com/strategy/value-chain/">here</a>. A brand value chain offers a holistic,
integrated approach to understanding the value created by brands. According to
the model, brand value creation begins with the town's marketing activities and
capacity. Marketing reach then influences customers who, in turn, affect how
the brand performs in the marketplace and is ultimately valued by the consumer.
Three important multipliers moderate the extent of transfer between these value
stages: the program quality multiplier, the marketplace conditions multiplier,
and the consumer sentiment multiplier.
This concept is leveraged from financial brand theory and is obviously adjusted for tourism.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is a large literature base
surrounding brands. Some practices have
an anatomy consisting of general procedural understandings and rules that speak
to explicit or discursive knowledge. The
skills, abilities, and culturally appropriate consumption projects (tacit,
embedded knowledge or how-to) also form a pillar of the knowledge base. There are emotional commitments expressed
through actions and representations relative to the brand, and there are
usually common practices across brand communities that may be compiled into
thematic aggregates to track how consumers realize extended value beyond the
value the brand is designed to create. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Research also illuminates practices that
seem to have a physiology that interact with one another and function like
apprenticeships by endowing brand participants with cultural capital. This is a catalyst to produce a repertoire
for insider sharing and it generates consumption opportunities. Theoretical and managerial implications may
offer avenues for building and nurturing brand community and enhancing
collaborative value creation between and among consumers and the organizational
brand. Ultimately, these concepts in
modified forms combine in a brand matrix that is leveraged by the brand
leadership team and the municipal staff who work with the Bike Town brand.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is no lack of science involved, although
it is rarely presented in such terms.
The vast majority of theory generated by branding research may be
accessed from peer reviewed resources openly accessible via various academic online
resource search engines such as <a href="http://www.ebscohost.com/">EBSCO</a>. These resources are available to the public
at the <a href="http://www.devonpubliclibrary.ca/">Devon Public Library</a>. While the study of branding is worthy of a
dissertation or a thesis for graduate business students, such levels of academe
are not typically central to municipal decision making. This is especially true in smaller
municipalities where fiscal constraints compress the ability to maintain staff with these particular skill sets as full time employees. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Instead, experts such as <a href="http://www.destinationdevelopment.com/portfolio-items/roger-brooks/">Roger
Brooks</a> of <a href="http://www.destinationdevelopment.com/">Destination
Development International</a>, who have already accumulated the academic
knowledge and practical experience are consulted. This is done to maximize municipal benefit with
minimal cost. Essentially, it may be
thought of as a form of outsourcing the overhead required to establish advanced
academic knowledge and experience relative to the science of branding. The municipality is able to advance the brand
cause, wrap decisions in advanced theory, and shine it up with practical
branding experience. In Devon's case,
that experience, notably, was with other municipalities such as <a href="http://www.destinationdevelopment.com/portfolio-items/st-albert-alberta/">St.
Albert</a>, and numerous cities throughout North America. You can review the Destination Development International
Case Histories by clicking <a href="http://www.destinationdevelopment.com/casehistories/">here</a>. </span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;"><i>Who
was involved?</i> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #e69138;"> </span></span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Municipal staff, members of the public, and
key stakeholder group representatives were involved. More details and a presentation about Bike Town are <a href="http://www.devon.ca/Residents/BrandingBikeTownAB.aspx">available online</a>
at the Town of Devon website.</span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Did
the Council issue an invitation to the public to participate in the branding
exercise?</i></span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Council provides policy decisions and
authorizes specific actions for the Administration to undertake. Issuing invitations, coordinating meetings,
and handling specific event planning activities, such as coordinating an
exercise, would fall under the purview of Corporate Services. Operational activities such as these
constitute prohibited activities for Council under the provisions of the <a href="http://www.qp.alberta.ca/documents/Acts/m26.pdf">Municipal Government Act</a>
(MGA). Parts 5, 6, and 7 of the MGA are
most relevant to understanding the roles of Council and Administration and may
be consulted online via the <a href="http://www.qp.alberta.ca/">Queen's Printer</a>. Nevertheless, Council may direct
administration to carry out policy, which may obviously include the nature of
communication between the municipality and the residents.</span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">What
other options were considered as a brand?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over twenty options were considered.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bike Town was selected based on a
scientifically constructed brand decision matrix. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After rising to the top in the brand decision
matrix, supplemental information was considered.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some of the supplemental data includes
information from the Government of Canada, for example, tourism.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tourism is an activity that generated
over $74.7 billion </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(2008 data), some 2% of Canada's GDP as reported by </span><a href="http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/dsib-tour.nsf/eng/Home" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Industry Canada</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tourism employed over 660,000 Canadians and
supports restaurants, hotels, cultural events, sporting events, and a variety
of small businesses.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sports tourism is
the fastest growing segment in the tourism category.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bicycling is the fastest growing channel in
the sports tourism segment.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">How
is branding funded without taxpayer dollars?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Corporate sponsors typically fund various events
that lead to increased brand awareness, as was the case with Kraft and TSN.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">People may voluntarily contribute time, which
may be considered "in kind" contributions.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Brand awareness is accelerated via media
interest and can be captured through activity in various outlets such as traditional print media, radio,
TV, the internet, and strong results in the social media space. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The </span><a href="http://pandora.nla.gov.au/tep/10007" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cyber-Journal of Sports Marketing</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
has a </span><a href="http://fulltext.ausport.gov.au/fulltext/1997/cjsm/v1n4/wilson.htm" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">primer</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
that explains why corporations engage in sports marketing and provides peer
reviewed sources that may be consulted by the reader, including Canadian
studies.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #b45f06;"><i>What
measurement tools and/or methodologies</i></span></b><span lang="EN-US"><b><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;"> are being utilized to determine the
financial benefits of each event?</span></i><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Software for economic modeling, such as </span><a href="http://implan.com/V4/index.php?option=com_content&view=frontpage&Itemid=1" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">IMPLAN</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">,
is available at a significant cost.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Devon does not currently own this software.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Accordingly, we reached out to regional
partners and the </span><a href="http://www.leduc.ca/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">City of Leduc</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> provided
Devon with access to their economic modeling hardware and software.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Interviews were conducted by members of
Devon's Economic Development and Tourism Board during Nationals.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The report is available to the public and was
part of the supporting quantitative data set used in the Bike Town decision
matrix.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will point out that this
report is not easily accessible online... I threw a few queries into the Town of Devon website search box and couldn't find the document.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To address this, I will be introducing a notice of motion called 'Public
Board Documents' to be filed as notice of motion 11-14-11.3 at the proximal
Council meeting. The Public Board Documents motion may be viewed by clicking <a href="http://www.gordongroat.ca/Docs/Public%20Board%20Documents%20Motion">here</a>.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Public Board
Documents motion, if passed by Council, will direct administration to add links to these documents in order to enhance transparency and, frankly, to make it easier to find these important documents on the Town of Devon website.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Determining the economic impact of events is a function of an Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) study. While I noted that economic modeling software can be used to generate very granular assessments of the economic impact of events and/or activities, I recognize that citizens want to know more information about the financial benefits derived from events like bike races. To that end, I have conducted my own research in order to determine what that entails. I have learned that there is a standard formula commonly used in EIA's. The formula is comprised of four data points, two of which are subjective and require further investigation, two of which are empirical and require data collection without special resources outside of manpower. The formula is as follows;</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">EIA Multiplier x Number of Tourists x Number of Event Days x Average Spend = Benefit</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is substantial literature regarding this and I will forward some key documents and resources to our staff so they can begin the process of determining the best number for the two subjective data points, namely, the EIA multiplier and the average spend. Average spend is lower for Devon because we don't have a suitable quantity of hotel rooms to capture stays, a situation we hope to rectify soon. Our multiplier will necessarily be lower than Leduc or Edmonton due to limited ability to capture room nights and certain limitations regarding non event consumption activities like dining or movies. Our task is to find the best number possible to use in our calculations. As you can see, using this formula, an event such as the Provincial Bike Races probably had about 100 tourists (this includes entrants). Using a conservative number for the EIA multiplier (1.5) and assuming 100 tourists, a 2 day stay, and estimating an average spend of 50 dollars per day, the economic impact would then be as follows: 1.5 x 100 x 2 x 50 = 15,000 of direct economic impact to the community. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I suspect the numbers are much higher, but I used these as an attempt to offer a very conservative estimate. For example, the average spend for a municipality like Leduc or Edmonton would probably fall into the 175-225 range due to their ability to capture the totality of room nights. As such, assuming a mid point of 200, my estimation of 50 slices off 150 per day to adjust for zero room capture within the daily spend estimate. That said, we do know some people stay in our hotels. Accordingly, the estimate of 50 can easily be argued as falling on the conservative side of the estimating range. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the same formula using the input of 200 as an average spend would result in a substantially larger economic benefit. That formula would be... 1.5 x 100 x 2 x 200 = 60,000 Suffice it to say, the room night value on the average spend is tremendously important. On the other subjective side of the equation, the economic multiplier of 1.5, was once again, taken at the low range of estimates. This multiplier, for many municipalities, is set in a range much higher... from 1.7 to 3.0 and, again, I have used a low estimation as an attempt to overcompensate on the side of fiscal conservatism. That said, it's interesting to note that if we use an estimate of 2.25 and examine the calculation, the economic benefit jumps from 60,000 to 90,000 - for one event. Arguably, an overcompensated formula (to the downside) places the case for cost recovery for the total sum of investment to date... at one event. This is why it's important to measure these economic benefits, with consistency and accuracy, so they may be articulated in a logical, open, and transparent manner, to the residents of Devon. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In order to understand, with greater precision, the economic benefit of our events in Devon, I have crafted a notice of motion as part of our ongoing process improvement strategy entitled 'Economic Impact Assessment Metrics' to be filed as number 11-21-11.5 and am planning to introduce it at the next meeting of Council for debate at the subsequent Council meeting. You can read the EIA motion by clicking </span><a href="http://www.gordongroat.ca/Docs/EIA" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">here</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Data used to arrive at this formula were taken from numerous resources, but the key resources are: </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The United States Sports Academy: A Review of Economic Impact Studies on Sporting Events</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.thesportjournal.org/article/review-economic-impact-study-sport-events">LINK</a></span><br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Economic Impacts of Tourism: A Handbook for Tourism Professionals<br />Illinois Bureau of Tourism</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://fama2.us.es:8080/turismo/turismonet1/economia%20del%20turismo/economia%20del%20turismo/economic%20impacts%20of%20tourism.pdf">LINK</a></span><br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once the appropriate formula inputs are determined, it would be logical to place a simple interface on the municipal website under the Economic Development and Tourism heading so that groups or organizations planning events may use the tool to determine the potential economic impact of their events upon the community and to increase transparency into the value of the events this municipality works so hard to deliver. I believe the numbers will be both realistic and valuable to our community.</span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">How
is Bike Town encouraging residents and tourists to shop locally?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Event participants, support staff, family,
and spectators purchase goods and services in close proximity to their events; bike races are no exception.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The prestige
of the event directly correlates to non-participant visitors.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Larger events like Canadian Nationals or
Provincials typically involve more teams, numerous support personnel, additional organizers, more volunteers, as well as family and fans.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The local economic
activity is supplemented by regional economic impact such as hotel room nights captured
by regional partners in Leduc and the greater Edmonton region.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since many Devon residents work in the
region, an acceleration in regional economic activity benefits the Devon
workforce, in turn, creating more economic resources for Devon residents to use
locally, thereby creating additional economic capacity to support shop local
initiatives.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBSQXEu1hILSJd3ifnyP00XQ4A7zZcBoTUEbBmk6O8yZhGr-rrWHksQq9aSxMJduLqM-jLOwKlDnus9Wxtv-Ll1bp4sS0o6lzQ3KttZhi-DPZMJUuFI2Jg3aWHjp8y68HyS5JynJI2y9c/s1600/Devon+Resident.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBSQXEu1hILSJd3ifnyP00XQ4A7zZcBoTUEbBmk6O8yZhGr-rrWHksQq9aSxMJduLqM-jLOwKlDnus9Wxtv-Ll1bp4sS0o6lzQ3KttZhi-DPZMJUuFI2Jg3aWHjp8y68HyS5JynJI2y9c/s320/Devon+Resident.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;">Shop Local </td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An interesting study relative to the <a href="http://www.bikeleague.org/resources/reports/pdfs/economic_benefits_bicycle_infrastructure_report.pdf">economic
impact of bicycle races</a> can be found at the League of American Bicyclists. This study has a substantive bibliography consisting of a an extensive list of resources that speak
to everything from municipal benefits to health benefits and environmental
benefits of bicycling. A Google search
of the 'economic impact of bicycle races' returns about 116 million hits, so
it's safe to say this is a topic that has widespread global interest.</span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">How
many tourists have attended the bike races?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since bike races are not ticketed events
and do not have points of entry to provide gate metrics, exact numbers are
difficult to quantify.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a great
question, and I will ask the Council representative and the Chairman of the
Economic Development and Tourism Board to raise this at their proximal meeting
to explore options to quantify this. This information is also a critical data point for conducting an economic impact assessment. This is another great question and it requires a solid answer if we are going to have reliable data sets to calculate the economic impact of these or any events.</span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06;">What
is the total revenue the Town of Devon has generated from entry fees, sale of
promotional material, corporate sponsorship not including the $25,000 from
Kraft that is dedicated to the Mountain Bike Skills Park, or anything else I
may have missed?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entry fees are typically part of the
revenue stream of the organizations that host the event; they are typically used to offset their
organizational costs.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Promotional
materials are usually entered in the chart of accounts as marketing,
advertising, or promotional expenses.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Corporate sponsorship investments are typically directed to event
sponsorships or teams.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b45f06; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i>Total
Costs (this was a very lengthy question, but I'll address it as a question that
is essentially a total cost of ownership (TCO) question.</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Resources used for TCO were drawn from
within the existing departments and budgets without creating remarkable budget
variance. Onetime extraordinary charges
were associated with intellectual property management. Remarkable a.k.a. 'material' impact on the Town of Devon's amalgamated fiscal budget is roughly considered to be approximately $50,000 dollars. In this case, the overall expenses were substantially less even when considering all associated expenses including
labor, promotional material, multi-use event equipment, and so forth. Many of the items that people may associate
with the Bike Town brand are deployed for many other events and serve
multiple-use roles in keeping with widely accepted tenets of fiscal responsibility and organizational
efficiency.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whenever items of a material level arise in the day to day operations of any corporation or organization, the top level leadership is informed of these impacts. When various actions of an administration fall within the operating budgets of various departments and do not impact approved budgets negatively, they are deemed to be within the purview of day to day operations of those departments. Such is the case with smaller items such as the purchase of a couple dozen t-shirts or similar items used for promotional purposes. In the case of the Bike Town brand, virtually all the expenses fall into this category and would not be of substantial impact such as to warrant the direct consideration of Council, the same would apply in any corporate structure or organization. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To increase the transparency of budget versus actual expenses, I have introduced a motion to increase visibility by formalizing a quarterly budget vs. actual report that indicates variances in the municipal financial budgets. The motion is designed to generate quarterly reports that will be formally submitted to Council. The intention is to provide Council and the public with a better sense of the fiscal condition of the municipality on a quarterly basis. Since the budget of the municipality is a matter of public record, these reports along with the annual report belong online so as to be easily accessible to the public. This motion is known as the 'Quarterly Reporting Motion' 11-7-11.1 submitted at the most recent Council under Notice of Motions for consideration at the proximal Council meeting. You can review that motion <a href="http://www.gordongroat.ca/Docs/Quarterly%20Reporting.pdf">here</a>.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, since items purchased in support of Bike Town have been captured as expense entries in our accounting software, these ledger entries may be reported. I do not know if all the expenses can be captured with a single report, that would be a function of how it was entered. In other words, if somebody bought a dozen t-shirts for Bike Town, and on the same bill, they purchased promotional items for, say, the hockey arena or the swimming pool, it is likely that would have been entered as one item and posted to promotion expenses. It would be difficult to report these out of the software with accuracy. Once we have to send people back into cardboard boxes to audit individual paper receipts, track all the minutiae, and then create a report for it, we have to call into question the concept of activity based costing. In other words, are we going to spend 2,000 dollars in manpower hours to report on 500 dollars of expenses. In the oil patch we call that a hundred dollars waiting on a dime. It just doesn't make sense to do it, but the point is well taken.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That said, I'll inquire to see if we might be able to generate an accurate report that contains the hard costs expended for the Bike Town initiative. Soft costs, like labor hours, would probably be more difficult to ascertain as I am fairly confident the accounting methods used, while in compliance with generally accepted accounting practices, are probably not set up with a "job costing" feature. I don't work in the accounting department for the Town of Devon, but I do know accounting software inside and out. In other words, it is unlikely that the finance department tracks employee hours in this manner. To do that, employees would need to either make a hard copy record of time they allocated to each task or element of work, which would then have to be entered and a ledger entry created to post these expenses against specific jobs. They could also employ a bar code scanner and "swipe" in to each job with a portable IR bar code scanner and a notepad. I am familiar with this because it is quite common in the manufacturing industry and I am deploying this technology in my factory. This kind of accounting practice, however, would be extraordinarily uncommon in a service related industry like municipal government.</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: lime;">A Few Personal Thoughts on Democratic Values</span></b><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have read words that imply or create what seems like innuendo that Council has acted in an undemocratic manner where Bike Town is concerned. Like any Veteran, I am deeply committed to the virtues of democracy, and like any Veteran, I swore to fight for democratic principles and to pay any price for it, up to and including my life if necessary. I'm not going to back down from that core value because it defines who I am as a person. I can assure you that I have no intentions of ever engaging in undemocratic actions or undertaking any work or project for purposes that would undermine the foundations of our democratic form of government. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On this Remembrance Day, we will dedicate the new Veterans Way, a project I helped facilitate. I'm very proud of this new honor for our Veterans and I want to salute all our Veterans and their families. </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Borrowing words from history, I am able to convey my
sentiments by telling you that in war there are no unwounded soldiers. And as we express our gratitude, we must
never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live
by them. </span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some of our citizens have set down the challenge to answer the questions they have. I believe it's a matter of honor and respect that I should pay, in full, my diligent and honest effort to reply to their questions and craft it with respect and care for the great people of Devon, all of whom I am enormously proud to represent. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have thought a great deal about these questions since I read them in the paper. I'm happy these questions were asked because I have now gained a substantially greater appreciation for the tremendous amount of work it takes to answer what might seem like a short question. These questions were not short, they were substantive. And once I started peeling the layers of the onion back and became introspective... I considered the questions with the utmost care. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have a great deal of respect for people who are willing to challenge things, to ask the tough questions, and to demand answers. I believe they are the very backbone of our democracy and they cause all of us to continually seek to raise the bar. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bravo! Thank you to everybody who asks the questions and challenges the policy. This is the very foundation of what makes democratic government great. Out of these questions, I have so far crafted two notices of motion for Council consideration to improve the way we do business. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Everybody has the right to be heard... and they should be listened to. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Respectfully,</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gord Groat</span></div>
</div>Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7783662800228466359.post-27906602412684037262011-10-10T10:35:00.000-07:002011-10-10T10:47:00.203-07:00Hitting the Mark<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2-cswT-oFmTYlgmtIfJP2gQKDD6oVAeezT_-LqDPTINAGC4NMnoY0WyOHikAU1SvafFd0GdY6Xio5YhZQD_cr2CnqP0K_jcgvK75-KJPnw8hKoXV9o98UFhllVcM-6i5DBkk3T0NQ0DI/s1600/iandc_img_off_wind_cost.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2-cswT-oFmTYlgmtIfJP2gQKDD6oVAeezT_-LqDPTINAGC4NMnoY0WyOHikAU1SvafFd0GdY6Xio5YhZQD_cr2CnqP0K_jcgvK75-KJPnw8hKoXV9o98UFhllVcM-6i5DBkk3T0NQ0DI/s320/iandc_img_off_wind_cost.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Offshore Wind Generation</td></tr>
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According to data from the UK National Grid, production of electricity from wind reached the marker of <a href="http://www.bwea.com/media/news/articles/pr20110929.html">10%</a> during September of 2011, largely from the largess of Hurricane Irene and thanks to Scottish Wind generators. The UK
Department of Energy and Climate Change reported a change in quarter 2 (Q2) that
was 120% more than Q2 a year ago. That substantial year over year renewable gain in Q2 translated to over a 3% gain in national energy provision. That's a significant
gain and one worth noting especially when we see 10% of the UK's entire energy requirement being met with renewable energy. That's a huge accomplishment and worthy of emulation.</div>
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Dr. Gordon Edge, RenewableUK's
director of policy, notes that producing nearly <a href="http://www.npower.com/Large-Business/Energy-news/Industry-news/iandc_news_UK_smashes_targets">10%
of the national energy</a> needs is a clear demonstration that renewable energy
can play a huge role in supplying national energy needs, but also, in building
jobs and contributing to a low carbon economy.
In fact, the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has
created a <a href="http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/meeting_energy/renewable_ener/re_roadmap/re_roadmap.aspx">roadmap</a>
(downloadable .pdf), a laudable document that outlines precisely how the UK
will make the shift to clean renewable energy, laying out specific technologies
and targets along the way.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxXr1OT8sFwQQ8R_kNhv1hruwP3hEKmIfbsTf1-pyGXxaZJ8IpY1oiIUMV2ICwsBFjbgFf-CGXMQjILQN-4DVBqaTsBhyphenhyphencwlOXlCOyKYcIvBy56N-mbEZiAlP9wbems_D2lyqS2Uc0mc/s1600/Big+Tidal+in+Scotland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxXr1OT8sFwQQ8R_kNhv1hruwP3hEKmIfbsTf1-pyGXxaZJ8IpY1oiIUMV2ICwsBFjbgFf-CGXMQjILQN-4DVBqaTsBhyphenhyphencwlOXlCOyKYcIvBy56N-mbEZiAlP9wbems_D2lyqS2Uc0mc/s1600/Big+Tidal+in+Scotland.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Scottish Undersea Turbine</td></tr>
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<span class="body"><span lang="EN-US">But it's not all peaches
and cream, as Dr. Edge points out, as the renewable energy sector approaches
around 13% of the UK's national power the bottleneck will become difficulties tying
into the aging grid infrastructure in the country. This is a problem that exists in every
developed nation and inevitably, it will become an
issue for Alberta. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">When the UK hit the 10% mark in September
of 2011... at the <span class="body">peak time, 1860MW was being generated - largely
from Scotland - and accounted for 4.7% of total generation at the time. That's impressive by any standard of measure. If, according to the National Gird, wind
power directly feeding into the low voltage local electricity networks by
smaller wind farms is taken into account wind generated about 10% of Britain's
power during the 24 hour period. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMw76_8K91DLLBTYKnCH1WwzHEOL-VBu5SxhqgqcYk6wvhIj1vR1Jppc-BqtvG8nQPLt8jeC1GDHxHl55H97hAbNfnsDpaYv-yl8dXOLuX8s-PopKxEh7f7NCVz_6UMXbt9JAXiTo9Uw/s1600/Solar+Bridge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMw76_8K91DLLBTYKnCH1WwzHEOL-VBu5SxhqgqcYk6wvhIj1vR1Jppc-BqtvG8nQPLt8jeC1GDHxHl55H97hAbNfnsDpaYv-yl8dXOLuX8s-PopKxEh7f7NCVz_6UMXbt9JAXiTo9Uw/s1600/Solar+Bridge.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Solar Capacity added to a Bridge in London</td></tr>
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We can accomplish that right
here in Alberta. But it takes courageous
leadership, intellectual vision, and solid planning. In fact, the biggest challenge we face in
Alberta is not how to acquire energy nor how to increase renewable production,
the challenge is how to rethink our transmission infrastructure. A viable strategy to shift to renewable
energy should be incorporated or associated with every new energy
infrastructure plan. Are we up for the
challenge?</div>
</div>
Gordon Groathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15374145140381756513noreply@blogger.com0