Alaska to Alberta : Rails to Resources

As I sit at my computer this morning going through some tweets, I see the former U.S. Senator and Governor of the Great State of Alaska, Mr. Frank Murkowski, posted an article about the great opportunity for Alaska and Alberta and Canada.  The article is called "Canada's oil is Alaska's opportunity. Franks is, of course, absolutely correct that Alberta’s oil does represent a great opportunity for Alaska and vice-versa.  

I met with Frank and some other political and business leaders at the Arctic Imperative Summit in Anchorage back in the summer of 2012.  One of the ideas that were placed on the table was running a pipeline up the MacKenzie valley and turning left to cross the Yukon and link up with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS).  Another idea is for a rail connection, a direct link from Alaska to Alberta.  I think the rail link is very shrewd.

3 Amigos
Former U.S. Senator & Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski in the center

When Frank was the Governor, his vision and that of others, led him to work on a study called “Rails to Resources” that suggested, years in advance of where we are today, that rail connectivity could provide both a connection for Alaska to the lower 48 and it could provide a bi-directional corridor for the flow of goods and services.  Wind the clock forward a few years and here we are today looking at former Governor Murkowski’s vision and wondering why we didn't see this sooner or do it sooner.  Alaska holds tremendous potential for Alberta insomuch as it is a natural port of exit for our crude, but with rail, it would create a cost-effective rail corridor that could be leveraged for a lot more than just oil.

At peak output, TAPS flowed more than 2 million barrels of oil a day from the North Slope to the port of Valdez, this peak occurred around 1990.  Since then, there has been a steady decline.  The pipeline also incurs other issues with declining flow, but the available capacity in TAPS is estimated to be 1.4 million barrels of oil a day.  When TAPS falls below 600 barrels of throughput a day, it becomes necessary to mitigate the slower flow of oil and prevent ice formation issues with heat and insulation mitigation methods, below 500 barrels a day will require additional mitigation and when it falls below 400, additional mitigation measures will need to be developed.

The Senator and Governor take another point of view that is interesting; such a project would create a direct rail link from Alaska to Alberta and the rest of the North American continent.  Easements exist from Fort McMurray to Peace River, but the really critical part is that all the first nations who would need to be part of an agreement have signed letters of support, even the Assembly of First Nations has signed.  

Rail has certain appeals that differ from a pipeline, the infrastructure may be used to ship cargo of other types and even tourists.  I’ve always thought that despite the greater greenhouse gas emissions from rail-shipped crude and the slightly higher transportation costs, there will come a day when other forms of energy displace oil.  It could be a paradigm shift, there could be successful fast ignition fusion or any number of emerging energy research possibilities in conjunction with existing renewable technologies.  Likely, it will wind up being a matrix of solutions, but a pipeline is unlikely to be required for whatever the solution set is.  Whatever happens, we do know that tight shale plays are changing the economics of oil, in some ways that are to the advantage of Alberta, and in some ways it is a disadvantage.

Most people hear the term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and we think that's what a producer gets for a barrel of oil... not exactly.  There are many different types of crude oil.  We produce a lot of heavy oil in the oilsands and it requires special equipment to change it from the crude oil we produce into refined petroleum products, whatever they are.  Like any system of trade, there are places in the supply chain where oil is delivered, many of us have heard of "Henry Hub" which is one of those places where oil is delivered.  There are different areas in the United States where oil goes to be turned into refined products, and during World War II, the U.S. Government had a Petroleum Administration for War that established five districts to ration gasoline.  These areas are called Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).

Pricing is derived from where the oil is being delivered and, of course, when it arrives at the destination in one of the PADDs where it is going to be refined, it goes into storage.  A price is paid based on supply and demand at that site.  In other words, if there is a large capacity for refining sour (meaning high sulfur content) or heavy oil, the refinery will want to have that kind of oil... it requires a coker or hydrocracker, fancy words for special technology that costs a lot to install, maintain and operate.  Because it costs more than the equipment used to refine sweet light oil (WTI), there is a higher cost associated with the refining process.  In turn, the refinery has to account for that cost and the producer receives a lower price, assuming there are no imbalances in supply and demand, which also impacts price like any other commodity.

But there is an issue with supply and demand, and it's growing.  In the Gulf States, there is a capacity for heavy oil that has been supplied by areas like Canada with our oilsands, Venezuela oilsands product, or Mexican Maya heavy.  The Gulf States these days, however, are awash in light crude oil from the tight shale plays in Texas, the most notable being the Eagle Ford play.  So much light crude is coming on the market that there is expected to be a supply imbalance within two years at the rate of new products being brought online.  That means there will be more of the light crude than refiners can handle and their heavy oil capacity will remain underutilized unless Canadian heavy oil can be delivered.

This is a figure that shows the expected growth of different types of oils in the five PADD areas of the United States.  After all that, it's important to realize that the pricing Alberta producers receive depends on the type of oil they sell, where they deliver it, and the supply/demand conditions that exist at the point where the oil is going.  All of this means basically, in a nutshell, two things.  First, our heavy oil is selling way below the price of WTI, so when you hear 96 or 100 dollars a barrel, that's not what we're really getting, it can be 20 or 30 (and even more) dollars a barrel discounted.  That's a bad thing for our producers and for the government that derives a lot of revenue from the sale of oil.  

There is a good story though, it's not all one-sided.  As the Texas oil shale plays and plays nearby start to deliver more and more light crude, they may arrive at an imbalance within a few years' time if the added production continues at current trajectories.  Less consumption due to greater fuel efficiency, oil replacement strategies, and a greater supply will eventually create a supply/demand imbalance such that the United States may need to actually think about exporting light crude.  The U.S. appetite for heavy and high sulfur oil will remain because that's not the kind of oil they produce.  This appetite has quantifiable limits in each PADD because of refinery capacity and types of refineries.  

It's safe to say that Canadian heavy will continue to be consumed primarily in PADD II because that's where the refineries are that have significant capacity to deal with this kind of oil.  It may also be delivered via Keystone to Texas where it would compete with Mexican Maya heavy.  But the largest and most equitable market for Canadian heavy is the World market which cannot be accessed without access to the ocean.  Because of the price discounts our producers have to take, the Province of Alberta has been losing billions of dollars every year.  Not a few million, not tens of millions, but billions in royalty revenue that the Government of Alberta simply does not receive due to this discount.

Alaska literally needs to have oil in its pipeline TAPS in order to prevent it from requiring mitigation to allow the lower production to flow.  Alberta needs to stop watching billions of dollars escape our treasury because we have no other customer except the United States. Our good friends in Alaska are willing to work with us and so are the First Nations between our heavy oil and the Pacific ocean.  There is nobody standing in our way along that corridor, it already has a deepwater tanker facility plus storage, and there is nothing to do but build a railroad that would connect Alaska to Alberta.  Alberta would benefit to the tune of billions of dollars a year and Alaska would benefit financially as well plus there would be a rail connection that meets up with the shortest trans pacific trading shipping route.  This means cargo can be part of the equation as well, allowing all kinds of products to move via rail between Alaska and anywhere on the North American continent.  There is no doubt the State of Alaska and the Government of the Yukon and the First Nations will work with us.  

G7G First Nations

Our Government of Alberta has funded a G7G study driven by the VanHorne Institute that will determine if it is viable and economically sound to establish such a rail corridor.  I have news... the answer is not only yes, but it is yes, and as fast as we can, please.  I am not prepared to wait years to hear results... every several billion dollars we lose because we can't take decisive action is a crime against our nation and our children yet to come.  We are condemning them to far less than we could give them.  I know some will argue that we should produce no oil at all... and they will get in their car and drive to the airport to board a plane to fly to a conference to learn about alternative energy.  They will consume products made from petroleum and think nothing of it, just as they will power their computers and lights with coal-fired electricity... because they do not realize that we must pay for a transition to new clean energy.  How will we do that?  Please answer me because I cannot see a clear answer unless the World is prepared to go with nuclear power.  I don't think they are.

Proposed Rail Line to connect to TAPS and Alaska

Last week a train left China for Europe... it carried freight cargo.  I think there's room to think outside the box.  I have said on a number of occasions that one day there will come a paradigm shift, and we will not have to use hydrocarbons for energy.  Until that day arrives, doesn't it make sense for us to look for the most fuel-efficient ways to move people, cargo, and yes... even energy?  Rail infrastructure has been lost in North America, and now we are building it back.  A good friend who is a railroader said that "once you give up a line, you won't get it back", and he is right.  I remember seeing the old railroad tracks when I was a kid, you could find spikes and remnants of the wood here and there.  We used to go play there and make our forts out on "the old railroad tracks".  Well here's a chance for us to build a new railroad that would create not only billions of dollars of wealth that we could use to pay it out quickly, but we could also pile money into clean renewable energy research and have a rail line capable of moving anything from across North America to the closes deepwater port on our continent to Asia.  

Just the strategic benefit of having that rail in place is more than enough for me to think that ought to be a national priority.  Sure, I'd look at building a pipeline too, but I'd much rather have a rail line on that route.  Initially, we all talked about a pipeline... but now that I'm very keenly interested in all things transportation, I can see the clear and distinct advantage of a rail connection from the lower 48 through Alberta and into the Yukon and Alaska.  

Train from Zhengzhou to Hamburg

I believe that a rail connection solves about 4 million barrels a day worth of oil export capacity, and neatly bypasses the opposition in British Columbia, although that seems to be fading fast as oil by rail starts shaping up to move in every other direction, and it also creates a strategic asset that a pipeline does not.  I advocate for both, but at the end of the day, I'd much rather take a high-speed train from Edmonton to Anchorage than fly from Edmonton to Seattle and up to Anchorage.  I love Alaska, that's where all my halibut comes from and where some very dear friends live.  

TAPS in the Winter

I just don't think it's much of a choice really.  How in the heck am I going to get to Alaska on one of these pipelines?  But rail... well that's a very different story.  It's time for us to unlock our wealth and put it to good use.  Why not open our Arctic up to rail and give the Yukon and Alaska a great ride in the process?  It won't take long before people figure out that it's not going to be just for oil, there will be tourists and cargo.  The economic boom will completely invigorate the far northern communities in Canada and it will put a jolt of economic boom into Alaska.  I think that's almost a no-brainer... but I'll wait to see the economics.  That said, somehow I think it all comes back to good old-fashioned common sense.  My friend Frank has plenty of it.  The brightest economists from the Yukon and Alaskan governments thought this was a good idea without the oil money on the table... but with it.  I'd be willing to bet my house on this one.

Lt. Governor Meade Treadwell

Oh, and yes I did get to know Alaska's Lieutenant Governor Meade Treadwell and I can tell you that he is a great guy, easy to get along with, and I think that he is emblematic of the great people of Alaska... he's the kind of person you can have a straight up honest conversation with.  Just the kind of person somebody from Alberta would like to do business with.  

To all my friends in Alaska and the Yukon, I support you and I have been advocating for this for quite some time.  Seeing Frank's article this morning enthused me to write about this.  I really like big thinkers like Frank and Meade.  Come to think of it, every person I have ever met in Alaska has been awesome!  Having a direct connection to Alaska would be incredible and profitable.

NASCO : North American Strategy for Competitiveness

The North American Strategy for Competitiveness (NASCO) is a fascinating organization. The economic trading partnership represents nearly a quarter of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We are blessed with strong connections in terms of land, people, culture, and economy. This was my first time as the newly minted President and CEO of Port Alberta attending the NASCO 2013 conference in the Great State of Texas. I pushed a number of things off my plate to meet with industry and government leaders from across Canada, the United States, and Mexico in San Antonio.

My thoughts quickly drifted back to a time when I lived only 25 minutes from the Mexican border in Arizona when my home was in the Sonoran desert. We all shared the same desert, the same weather, the same food, and the same culture. There was an international border, but it wasn't difficult for us as we could drive to "la Frontera", grab a parking spot, and just walk across the line. For us, it was like walking across the street. Not much changed except for the number and type of stores set up at the border for the tourists. 

I knew there would be plenty of Mexicans at the conference and looked forward to meeting them and speaking Spanish.  One of the first orders of business was to register for the conference.  While looking for the registration desk, I was greeted by very nice people from Mexico speaking Spanish.  We immediately engaged in conversation and a lady from the State of Michigan joined the group. I grew up near the Windsor/Detroit border, so we had a lot to talk about.  Having spent most of my life 15 minutes from the Canadian/US border or the Mexican/US border, I was in my element.

As we continued to chat, I was graciously escorted into a room with a couple dozen people. We all exchanged business cards and I noticed these people represented their respective governments at a pretty high level. After a quick reference to the event schedule on my iPhone, I realized the seat I occupied was for "invited only" government leaders for the NAFTA countries!  Inadvertently, I wound up at the meeting of ministers.

I thought to myself, “maybe this is meant to be”, after all, I have the heart of a Latino and citizenship of Canada and the United States.  My participation and opinions were welcome in the discussion on how the three NAFTA countries might best move forward on a variety of levels. It was a thrill to observe and collaborate with such brilliant international thought leaders instrumental to the fate of the NAFTA region.

Canada, the United States, and Mexico account for nearly a quarter of the global GDP.  That fact, in and of itself, is staggering.  The United States imports nearly twice as much oil from Canada as Saudi Arabia.  Canada has invested over $230 billion in NAFTA partners and our trading relationship has blossomed to over a trillion dollars.  The combined GDP of Canada, the United States, and Mexico were about $19.2 trillion last year.  The Government of Canada has been keenly aware of a shifting multi-polar world and what that means for Canadian trading and competitiveness.  

Mexican reforms seem to be gathering momentum as indicated by considerable capital starting to pivot from Latin American markets into Mexico.  Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and add-ons seem to be shifting capital from Brazil toward Mexico. Over 10 billion in IPOs have been racked up this year to date. While the Asian IPOs have retracted, North American IPO proceeds have gained.  Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is considering changes to the Constitution of Mexico, in particular, articles 25, 27, and 28 of the Constitution. 

President Enrique Peña Nieto

The potential reforms in Mexico would radically change the Mexican economy and shift foreign investment back into high gear.  It is thought that Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), the state-run oil company, could ramp up exploration in dwindling oil fields.  But the alteration of the Mexican Constitution requires a 2/3 vote, and it is unlikely to pass unless President Nieto's PRI party can secure the support of the conservative PAN party which is not entirely opposed to the idea, but in order to secure their support, they are asking to have electoral reform which would allow a run-off between first and second place candidates in Presidential elections according to Jose Maria Martinez, deputy leader of the PAN in the Senate.  

Over 11,000 trucks move across the border crossing between Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas every day.  If you're going to cross the US/Mexican/Canadian border, here's a handy link for real-time data that shows the best time to cross for passengers and commercials.  Between Canada and the United States, over 1.4 million worth of goods and services cross the border from the United States every minute of every day. That's a $710 billion dollar market between the U.S. and Canada alone.  It's no wonder the Government of Canada is going to build a new bridge across the Detroit river because it is Canada's largest trade corridor with over 25% of U.S. and Canadian trade.

New Bridge from Windsor to Detroit - designed by Ted Zoli

Canada will pick up the tab for the construction of the bridge at several billion dollars (estimated between 3 and 4 billion).  That bridge represents what every person from the Detroit / Windsor corridor knows... the trading relationship sends more value in cargo across the Detroit river every day than we trade with many countries all year long.  In short, it's the single largest trading corridor in North America and it's growing.

The bridge in Laredo is also tremendously important too.  The Laredo bridge is called the World Trade International Bridge, and it carries about 10,000 (or more) trucks a day delivering cargo between the United States and Mexico. This Laredo bridge spans the Rio Grande. You can check out the bridge cams at this link.

World Trade International Bridge - Laredo

When people start talking about NAFTA, I have a whole new perspective on just how important it is for our three countries.  NAFTA matters and the key relationships we have with Mexico, Canada, and the United States are incredibly important to our economies and to our people.  Suffice it to say, I've always believed in free trade and I've always felt the relationship between Mexico, Canada, and the United States is enormously important.  Between the three countries, we can claim continental energy independence.  There are many reasons why the trading relationships of NAFTA are critical to all three countries, but the sheer size and velocity of goods and services are simply unmatched anywhere else.

Mexico, the United States, and Canada represent about a quarter of the World's GDP, over 14 million jobs depend on this relationship, and it is a 19 trillion dollar market, larger than the European Union and twice the size of China.  The message I gave the meeting of the leaders was very simple. The problems for the supply chain and logistics between Mexico, the United States, and Canada began on one particular date, September 11, 2001 a.k.a. 9/11.  That's when the borders started to become difficult to negotiate.  Only I was able to say that in no uncertain terms. Everybody else had to be restrained in their choice of words because they were high-level political representatives... I was the guy representing the industry and was not bound to the same requirement to dance around the heart of the issue.  Naturally, I put it right out there on the table and I think very much to the relief of the government officials present.

We must leverage our advantages as technological leaders and thought leaders to make make our borders easier to cross for our trade, and we can do it by leveraging technology for more intelligent border systems, cooperating more closely on these matters, and focusing on our ability to leverage these things while approving energy infrastructure, like Keystone, to create a strong energy security policy that benefits all three nations.  These recommendations, in a slightly different form, were put forth on my birthday, October 3rd, from the Canadian Council of Chief Executives and addressed to President Obama, President Nieto, and Prime Minister Harper.  

I believe President Nieto is leading a visionary change that will bring increased prosperity to Mexico.  The Eagle Ford shale play extends into Mexico and there is so much more.  But PEMEX will require the kind of expertise Canadian and U.S. companies can bring to the table in order to unleash the enormous potential of Mexican natural resources.  The United States must also consider the importance of completing the Keystone project, which in and of itself does not create a complete solution to the breadth of North American energy security that all of us want, but it will certainly help.  And to be clear, the majority of U.S. citizens want Keystone to move forward.

We recognize that business leaders and the United States Congress join the majority of the people in their desire to see Keystone move forward.  North American energy independence allows us to apply our own technologies and innovation in our marketplace instead of pushing global energy production into the hands of nations where environmental controls are nowhere near our environmental control standards.  Democratic stability and decades of harmonious relations across the NAFTA countries support continued policy development that will benefit North America.

President Nieto and President Obama

President Nieto and Prime Minister Harper

If we apply our technologies and make a genuine attempt to work more closely to harmonize our security and enhance the flow of goods and services across the North American supply chain, we will advance our economies and move forward together.

The Siberian Methane Burp

Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of methane and carboniferous materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of materials that have potential to release greenhouse gas emissions that will continue to accelerate the rate of climate change.  The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers approximately 7,000 kilometers with significant outcroppings of complex ancient ice deposits rich in carboniferous materials in addition to substantial quantities of shallow sub sea permafrost.  This exists throughout the entire Arctic region, but the ESAS is by far the most proliferous area.

As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic for longer periods of time, erosion of these shelves increases the release of these carboniferous materials into the ocean.  Microbial consumption of these materials produces carbon dioxide and methane.  The release of carbon dioxide and methane vent to the atmosphere.  Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in the form of methane hydrates trapped in a frozen state beneath the Arctic tundra. Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with warming will bring these coastline and sea-based deposits into the mix.  Since methane has approximately 20-23 times greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much more heat, the ramifications of large-scale emissions of methane into the atmosphere further exacerbate the positive feedback loop effect.  

Because methane dissipates relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not have an enormous impact on overall global average temperatures in and of itself, taken together with other components in a planetary scale positive feedback loop, the impact could be magnified significantly. If the technology existed to easily capture methane from the Arctic tundra, the sheer quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the economic viability of methane production.  Because methane is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to various stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position to benefit from profitable resource development. 

Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere would prevent a greenhouse gas some 20+ times more potent than CO₂ from contributing its effects to climate change.  But the numerous challenges of getting to the resource and then fielding the technology to capture it present challenges that may render this option uneconomic.  Nevertheless, it's something we continue to ponder and think about... after all, if we're not paying attention to it, we might find out one day we were ignoring a vast source of greenhouse gas.

Could methane be a tipping point greenhouse gas that forces extraordinarily expensive adaptation strategies to be implemented at a greatly accelerated pace?  If it does become a tipping point gas, it's safe to bet it could impact climate change faster than most policy analysts would ever be willing to publicly admit.

Arctic Climate Change : The Big Melt

2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

Climate change in the Arctic happens faster than anywhere on the planet, a scientific fact that finds little dispute from any interest group.  For many years, it has been described as the canary in the coal mine (Michaels, 2004).  As circumpolar leaders and experts met at the Arctic Imperative Summit in the Summer of 2012, the recession of Arctic ice, a.k.a. the ice melt, had exceeded 2007 levels (NSIDC, 2012), the previous record Arctic sea ice area recorded since 1979.

While the Arctic shows evidence of global climate change at a faster rate than other areas, it would present a very attractive subject for research and study.  There is room to expand the interdisciplinary aspect of the many scientific fields studying climate change impacts in the high Arctic, but this is offset by the difficulty and expense of reaching Arctic areas and then conducting research (Hinzmon, 2005).

The challenges are real, the Arctic is changing quickly, and projections of increased economic activity in the Circumpolar World are inevitable.  Recognition of the consequences of accelerating climate change for Arctic environments will aid the voices advocating for more research funding on the part of the Circumpolar World.

Swedish researchers note a generalized loss of cold winters and cool summers while noting more extreme precipitation events.  Their understanding of the rate of climate change has led them to focus on adaptation strategy.  Like many entities, the circumpolar governments and regional stakeholders are turning more and more energy to the adaptation process (Callaghan, et al., 2010).  In the eyes of all the circumpolar nations, the debate as to if the climate is changing is long gone.  The conversation is now about how best to adapt since their part of the planet will be impacted fastest.

Reduction of Arctic Ice

The reduction of Arctic Ice creates a variety of issues and opportunities.  The issue from the standpoint of ice melting is that polar ice reflects light (and heat).  As the ice melts, the dark water surface absorbs more heat, which creates a faster temperature rise which, in turn, causes the ice melt to occur at a faster rate.  This kind of feedback system, referred to as a positive feedback loop, is one of many components that impact global climate change. Water on top of the ice pack also creates more rapid heat absorption because it creates a dark area on the ice surface, absorbing more heat.  While melting Arctic ice does not cause sea levels to rise, much like a melting ice cube in a glass of water does not cause the level of liquid in the glass to rise; it does create warmer temperatures which cause other circumpolar ice to melt.  As large amounts of land-based ice melt, like the Greenland Ice Shelf, that does introduce more water into the ocean, which does raise the sea level. 

As Arctic ice minimums continue to advance, creating more dark water, the ramifications impact not only the acceleration of temperature change, but it also creates young ice areas which require less energy to melt.  The National Snow and Ice Data Center track daily changes in the Arctic ice cover.  The Arctic ice recedes yearly and melts during the warm months, typically stopping its recession around the end of September when it becomes cold enough for the ice coverage to begin extending again.  In 2012, the Arctic ice minimum was found to be at the lowest levels since this data has been tracked by satellite (NSIDC, 2012).

The Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a massive land-based circumpolar ice deposit.  This vast area of ice is starting to undergo rapid melting cycles.  While this has been noted by scientists for many years, the rapid acceleration of Greenland’s ice combined with additional complicating factors, is only recently emerging as an environmental issue that is starting to command global interest.

Unusual weather patterns noted in 2012 include the U.S. drought, and a sudden widespread surface melt event impacting the Greenland Ice Sheet.  This set of circumstances, known as a heat dome, occurs when the jet stream patterns keep cooler air to the north which, in turn, allows warmer air from the Gulf stream to rise up to Greenland.  The phenomena this year, in July, caused a rapid spread of surface melt in Greenland, extending the area from about 40% of Greenland’s surface to nearly complete coverage over the course of four days.

Typically, the maximum surface melt area in Greenland during the hottest point of the summer is around 50%.  The scope of these phenomena is certainly attention-getting but there is also evidence this may be part of a cyclical event.  While there is not enough evidence to suggest this predicts an impending catastrophic ice loss and resultant accelerated rates of sea level rise, it certainly warrants further investigation and attention.

If instability and accelerating melting takes place on the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic, the level of sea rise could be far faster than was originally thought.  It seems like scientists continue to be surprised each year as the rate of change exceeds the predictive components of their models.

If there is a tipping point and the largest of the land-based glaciers melt into the ocean, we would have sea levels that are several meters higher than they are now.  Under the most prepared scenario, it is hard to imagine to what extent such an incident would damage global trading patterns and to what extent that would impact weather.

Greenland Ice Sheet Melt July 2012

Satellite Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite was taken between 2002 and 2008; demonstrating that Greenland has been losing approximately 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year.  A large section of the Pederson glacier, some 130 square kilometers, broke off due to the high temperatures, but since this section was already floating on the ocean, it will not contribute to rising sea levels.  That said, as similar weather patterns repeat in conjunction with rising average air temperatures, the rate of melt on land is likely to grow. 

Pederson Glacier Ice Melt

Ice melt rate is also affected by other factors, including airborne particulates raining out over the ice sheet causing dark spots.  Images of these dark spots evoke an interest in knowing if they are hydrologically isolated from sub-surface water.  The dark holes appear to be boreholes.  These holes initially absorb solar energy at a higher rate causing an increase in the rate of melt in the holes.

Black Holes on Greenland Ice Shelf

As the holes get deeper, the rate of deepening begins to rescind as the exposure angle to the sun decreases, and at some point, the rate of melt equalizes with surrounding ice.  As these holes create a matrix of higher melt points, they become subject to interrelationships with under-surface fissures and fractures of the major ice sheets.  To the extent these may drain into large ice sheet fractures, the rate of progression to land-based ice and land contact points tends to create an opportunity for ice to shift and move, probably a lot sooner than it otherwise would have.

Particulates that absorb heat like black carbon, vanillic acid, and sulfur that fall on the Greenland ice shelf create the aforementioned dark areas creating boreholes that melt faster than the surrounding reflective white ice.  This functions like drilling holes in the ice sheet which facilitates gravity-dependent water flow migration towards the bottom of the sheet, creating subsurface conditions that encourage a more rapid rate of ice migration towards the sea.

Particulate-driven cryoconite holes that look like boreholes have also been widely reported by glaciologists, especially those who study the Greenland ice shelf.  It is thought, based on the chemical composition of the soot that much of it comes from coal-burning plants in Asia; this is based on assumptions of wind conditions and observable fallout patterns.

Rivers of water are also noted with massive drop-offs into large crevasse structures.  It’s the combination of rising surface temperatures, and particulate fallout from high-emission industrial output that creates what appears to be a causing accelerated migration of surface water to the ice bedrock interface (Zwally, et al., 2002).  It may also be presumed these holes contribute integrity challenges to the ice sheet, probably creating larger areas that break off as the ice sheet approaches the ocean.  Other chemical compositions suggest some of the soot is due to massive forest fires in other parts of the globe, another by-product of climate change as large forested areas undergo significant drought during the summer months, hence creating ideal conditions for large forest fires.

Ice core samples reveal coal soot particulate content in the Arctic can be correlated to the maximum effect of the industrialization of the period from 1906 to 1910 (McConnell, 2007) and note thermal temperature rises eight times larger than pre-industrialization.  Much of that, by the way, is thought to have derived from the United States and Canada.

Ice Core Samples

Ice core samples, through trapped air pockets, can be analyzed to reveal carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during previous eras.  There is ample evidence that CO₂ levels in the atmosphere correlate with average mean surface temperatures due to the heat-trapping ability of the material in the Earth’s atmosphere.  The projections of CO₂ emissions through the remainder of the 21st century are substantial.  Even with efforts to mitigate emissions, the ramifications imply increased temperatures which mean the planet will continue to shed ice.

Ice Core CO₂ Analysis & Predictions

Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and Methane

Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of Methane and carboniferous materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of materials that have the potential to release greenhouse gas emissions that will accelerate the rate of climate change.  The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers approximately 7,000 kilometers with significant outcroppings of complex ancient ice deposits rich in carboniferous materials in addition to shallow sub-sea permafrost.  This exists throughout the entire Arctic region to some extent, but the ESAS is by far the most proliferous.

Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf

As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic for longer periods of time, erosion of these shelves increases releasing carboniferous materials into the ocean.  Microbial consumption of these materials produces carbon dioxide and methane.  The release of carbon dioxide and methane vent to the atmosphere.  Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in the form of methane hydrates in a frozen state trapped beneath the Arctic tundra.

Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with warming will bring these coastline and seafloor deposits into the mix.  Since methane has approximately 20-23 times greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much more heat, the ramifications of large-scale emissions of methane into the atmosphere further exacerbate the positive feedback loop.  Because methane dissipates relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not have an enormous impact on overall global average temperatures (Kvenvolden, 1988) in and of itself, taken together with other components of a positive feedback loop, the impact could be magnified.

If the technology existed to easily capture methane from the Arctic tundra, the sheer quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the economic viability of methane production.  Because it is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to the Arctic and to stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position to benefit from resource development. 

Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere would prevent a GHG some 20+ times as potent as CO₂ from contributing to climate change, but the climate ramifications of getting to the resource and how it would be combusted would still have an impact, so it would be at a net cost to the environment, but that net would be somewhat less than simple emission.

Works Cited

Michaels, P., 2004. The Economist; A canary in the coal mine. [Online] 

Available at: http://www.economist.com/node/3375415

[Accessed 19 01 2013]

NSIDC, 2012. Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis. [Online] 

Available at: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[Accessed 02 09 2012]

Hinzmon, L. D., 2005. Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions. [Online] 

Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-005-5352-2?LI=true

[Accessed 28 12 2012]

Callaghan, T. V. et al., 2010. A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(14)

Zwally, H. J. et al., 2002. Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow. Science, pp. 218-222

McConnell, J. R. e. a., 2007. 20th-Century Industrial Black Carbon Emissions Altered Arctic Climate Forcing. Science, 317(7 September 2007), pp. 1381-1384

Kvenvolden, K. A., 1988. Methane hydrate — A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?. Chemical Geology, 71(1-3), pp. 41-51

Leadership by the numbers : a compilation of CF best practices modified for corporate application

Duty is about what we do, a leader’s duty is to serve the mission.  Honour is about how we perform our duty.  Leaders must perform their duties in accordance with the civic, legal, and ethical values embraced by our society.  . Effective leaders get the job done, look after their people, think and act in terms of the larger team, anticipate and adapt to change, and exemplify our ethos in all they do.  This is what the organization expects and it is also what the people whom we serve expect.  Altogether too often, the public is sad to learn their leaders have not lived up to an ethos of high standards.  Part of our ethos, then, should be to say that we will stand up to be moral, effective, and genuine leaders.  For it is only through a strong commitment to an ethos our people can be proud of, that we will be able to provide the characteristics of strong and capable leaders and give the people what they so rightfully expect.

~ General Rick Hillier – Chief of Defence Staff

(Taken in part and editorialized by the author)

CF Modified Effectiveness Framework

Effectiveness Framework

Emanation Paths

Emanation paths represent secondary outcomes of the Effectiveness Framework, each of which has a positive bi-directional connotation for enhanced team growth and increased probability of success.

Organizational Success

The collective planning and action of an organization with operations that span different trades, departments, crafts, and various necessary functions is paramount.  It is necessary to perform the thousands of myriad tasks that take place to keep the organization functioning smoothly.  Typically, if we are engaging correctly and moving forward as a team, the team success will be there as a result of the collective planning and the actions of an organization.

Internal Integration

The internal operations of the organization must be well organized, the functions clear, and the reporting of agreed upon metrics must be established.  The achievement of teamwork and cohesion among the people must fit together in order to work together effectively.

Member Well Being and Commitment

Respect, care, and consideration are fundamental qualities.  By engaging others with respect and acting to support their professional hopes, goals, and aspirations we show a sincere commitment from the organization toward the people.  This is a moral obligation that also happens to be highly practical.

Conduct (ethos)

Conduct or ethos encompasses values that describe and define organizational conduct.  This behavioral dimension includes the civic values of liberal democracy; values subsumed by the rule of law; ethical values governing our treatment of others and the conduct of government operations; and the traditional values of duty, loyalty, integrity, and courage.  The ethos is the essence of your honor.

The Importance of Trust

Trust in leadership is positively related to individual and group performance, persistence in the face of adversity, the ability to withstand stress, job satisfaction, and commitment to continued service.  One of the most important parts of the leader’s job is to build and maintain healthy trust relationships with subordinates, peers, and superiors. Leaders build and maintain trust through their decisions, actions, and interactions.

Leaders build and maintain trust through their decisions, actions, and interactions.  Leadership qualities exhibited by each leader of the organization is reflected onto every other leader within the organization.  As such it follows that the leaders should, at a minimum, always exhibit these traits:

  

• Demonstrate high levels of proficiency in the performance of core functions and take advantage of opportunities to enhance professional expertise and competence
• Exercise good judgment in decisions that affect others and do not expose people to unnecessary physical or emotional risks
• Show trust and confidence in team members by giving them additional authority and involving them in decisions where circumstances allow
• Demonstrate concern for the well-being of team members, represent their interests, and ensure they are supported and taken care of by the organization
• Show consideration and respect for others, treating teammates fairly, without favor or discrimination
• Focus on the mission, maintaining high standards as well as honest and open communications
• Lead by example, sharing risks and hardships and refusing to accept or take special privileges
• Keep your word and be counted on to honor your obligations

Distributed Leadership

Distributed leadership is about sharing the responsibilities of leadership, vertically and horizontally within teams and the organization as a whole.  Leadership is an essential role requirement for managers but is not the same thing as management.

  

Leaders are involved in planning, problem-solving, decision making, organizing, informing, directing, allocating and managing resources while developing, coordinating, monitoring, and controlling the course of those efforts.  The expectation is simple; leaders will not only lead but that they will lead well.  They will always seek to develop the team around them; they will never seek to be the smartest person in the room, but rather, they will surround themselves with other strengths and leverage those strengths, constantly seeking ways to share the leadership role through a distributed environment based upon a foundation of trust.

Professional

A profession is essentially an exclusive group of people performing a service to society and unified by a common body of expertise and code of conduct.  The words of a professional cannot be just words on paper or empty commitments, they must be publicly visible consistent patterns of behavior. Leaders make the difference.

Leaders Primary Responsibilities

·         Build Teamwork and Cohesion
·         Professional Competence and Self-Improvement
·         Clarify Objectives and Intent
·         Solve Problems with Timely Decisions
·         Mentor, Educate, and Develop Team Members
·         Treat Team Members Fairly
·         Respond to Their Concerns
·         Represent Team Members' Interests
·         Maintain Situational Awareness
·         Learn From Those Who Have Experience
·         Learn From Experience
·         Exemplify the Ethos

Member Well-being and Commitment

The primary leader roles pertaining to the member well-being and commitment dimension of effectiveness are those of sustainer and developer. In the sustainer role, the leadership team is responsible for establishing a healthy organizational climate, treating people fairly, and managing interpersonal conflict.  The leader must also sustain the individual and collective interests of their people and seek to build morale wherever possible.

  

In the developer role, leaders foster and recognize achievement, and protect depth and continuity in teams by cultivating potential replacement leaders. They mentor people in apprenticeship positions and challenging assignments, and encourage and support subordinate participation in training, educational, and professional activities over their career span.

Enhance Situational Awareness – Explain Events and Decisions

The routine and prompt passage of information contributes to teammates’ situational awareness and their ability to respond appropriately to a changing situation.  Situational awareness is critical to anticipating future environmental conditions and identify opportunities to secure organizational advantage.  Candidly explaining events and decisions often reduces tensions created by uncertainty and is critical to maintaining the trust relationship between leaders and led.

Collective Leadership

Collective leadership refers to the combined effects and synergies when leaders at different levels synchronize their leadership actions to achieve a common purpose.  High performing collective leadership occurs when leadership processes are mutually reinforcing; the result is greater than the sum of its parts.  Leveraging collective intelligence to establish collective leadership shifts fine organizations into high performing organizations with stellar performers.